BR: Movimentação ferroviária cresceu em outubro

Market: Agriculture, Fertilizers, Metals
09/12/22

A movimentação de carga ferroviária no Brasil aumentou em outubro na comparação anual, impulsionada pela alta nos volumes de granéis agrícolas, especialmente da segunda safra de milho do país.

A carga ferroviária totalizou 33,8 bilhões de t/Km em outubro, um aumento de 12,1pc em relação aos 30,2 bilhões de t/km em outubro de 2021, de acordo com a Associação Nacional dos Transportadores Ferroviários (ANTF). A movimentação de carga por ferrovia cresceu 0,3pc em relação ao mês anterior.

A movimentação de minério de ferro atingiu 22,9 bilhões t/km, contra 22 bilhões t/km um ano antes. O transporte de contêineres subiu de 343 milhões de t/km para 410 milhões de t/km.

Os volumes de combustíveis atingiram 719 milhões de t/km, em comparação com 684 milhões de t/km no ano anterior. A carga agrícola a granel totalizou 7,3 bilhões de t/km, contra quase 4,6 bilhões de t/km no ano passado. A movimentação de outras cargas atingiu 2,53 bilhões t/km, de 2,5 bilhões t/km.

No acumulado do ano até outubro, a movimentação de carga totalizou 310,6 bilhões t/km, um aumento de 0,3pc em relação ao mesmo período de 2021.

De janeiro a outubro de 2022, 95,4pc do minério de ferro e 49,1pc da soja e do farelo de soja exportados do Brasil chegaram aos portos por ferrovia, segundo dados da ANTF, aumento de 1,6 e 8,5 pontos percentuais, respectivamente, em relação ao mesmo período de 2021.

O transporte ferroviário respondeu por metade das exportações de milho e 54pc das exportações de açúcar, com queda de 9,9 e 7,5 pontos percentuais, respectivamente.

A ANTF representa as operadoras ferroviárias responsáveis pelo transporte de cargas nas 13 malhas ferroviárias administradas pela iniciativa privada brasileira, que cobrem cerca de 30.000km. A associação monitora granéis agrícolas, minério de ferro, combustíveis, contêineres e outras cargas, como celulose, carvão e aço.

Por Joao Petrini

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: Crop-based feedstocks face an uphill battle

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — US biofuel producers' demand for soybean and canola oil has waned recently, a trend that looks unlikely to reverse in the near term because of domestic policy changes that prioritize lower carbon intensity feedstocks. Expectations that a US renewable diesel boom would drive up demand for vegetable oil led agribusinesses to announce new soybean crush plants and expansions in 2022. Seven new soybean crush plants have come online since then, increasing US nameplate capacity by 10pc to 2.91bn bushels/yr, but new policies have diverged from crop-based feedstocks because of their higher carbon intensity. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to adopt new low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) targets on 6 November. CARB hiked the carbon-intensity reduction target of California's transportation fuels from 20pc to 30pc by 2030, in hopes of balancing the pool of oversupplied LCFS credits, which alone reduced incentives for crop-based fuels. But more critically, the new rules will impose tighter restrictions for crop-based feedstocks, capping a company's LCFS credit generation from vegetable oil-based biofuel at 20pc/yr, starting in 2028 for existing plants. Apart from that, CARB will require producers to track the point of origin of crop-based feedstocks, adding to costs. Soybean oil-based biofuel already fetches a lower LCFS credit value in California, and the additional traceability requirement could further deter biofuel producers. Soybean oil- and canola oil-based fuel made up approximately 20pc of the biodiesel and renewable diesel traded into California during the second quarter of 2024, according to CARB's most recent quarterly data. While soybean oil is the most used feedstock in US biodiesel production, used cooking oil (UCO) leads US renewable diesel production. Biofuels produced with lower carbon-intensity feedstocks like UCO, tallow and distillers corn oil receive generous LCFS credits compared to soybean oil and canola oil. That credit premium has led to a surge in UCO and tallow imports into the US , weighing on demand for soybean oil and leading to outcry from farm groups to restrict foreign feedstocks from qualifying for the Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC). More challenging is the expiration of the blenders tax credit (BTC) by the end of 2024, which offers $1/USG to biomass-based diesel regardless of the carbon intensity of their feedstocks. The CFPC, also known as the 45Z credit under the Inflation Reduction Act, will replace the BTC in 2025. Unlike the BTC, the CFPC will provide a tax credit based on how low the carbon intensity of the fuel is to a baseline level of 50kg of CO equivalent/mmBTU. This means crop-based diesel fuels will receive far less credit value starting next year than they received for years under the BTC. Some renewable diesel and biodiesel producers are set to idle production in January amid a lack of clarity on how the tax credit changes will impact fuel and feedstock demand. Biofuel and agriculture groups are also waiting final guidance for "climate-smart agricultural practices" and how that would factor into the final 45Z credit for vegetable oil-based biofuels. These climate-smart practices might include no-till farming, planting cover crops, efficient fertilizer use, and more. The US Department of Agriculture recently sent guidelines on climate-smart agricultural crops used as biofuel feedstocks to the White House for final review, giving the industry some hope that they will qualify for a bigger federal credit under 45Z. But how much crop feedstocks will be able to close the gap with waste feedstocks is unclear. US soybean oil futures fell to 39.52¢/lb as of 27 December, down by 17pc from the start of 2024, weighed down by the prospects of a large South American soybean crop and lackluster demand from the US biofuel industry. The US Department of Agriculture's December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected Brazil's 2024-25 soybean production at 169mn t, 10pc higher compared to the prior year. Argentina soybean production was forecast at 52mn t, up by 7.9pc from a year earlier. Soybean planting is ongoing in both regions, with Brazil at 98pc completion as of 22 December and Argentina at 85pc as of 26 December. Some relief from falling soybean oil future prices has come from increased US soybean oil exports, driven by palm oil prices hitting their highest level since 2022. US export commitments for soybean oil were at 526,630t as of 19 December, nearly surpassing the US Department of Agriculture's currently projected level for 2024-25 marketing year. Mexico is among the major buyers of US soybean oil, but if president-elect Donald Trump imposes 25pc tariffs on imports from Mexico , retaliatory action could affect soybean oil demand. Despite the support from soybean oil export sales, the vegetable oil industry will still need support from the US biofuel industry for prices to recover. And should palm oil prices fall, US soybean oil producers will not be able to rely as much on international markets, leaving them to lean more heavily on fighting for changes in US biofuels policy. By Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Policy uncertainty dogs battery anode plans

30/12/24

News

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Policy uncertainty dogs battery anode plans

Washington, 30 December (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump's re-election is sparking uncertainty in the US' synthetic graphite battery sector, with companies worried about a possible halt to government finance and a weaker outlook for domestic demand. "With Trump being elected president, everything's up in the air," one industry source said. Battery materials companies expecting to receive government funding to build plants in the US could see their prospects dim with Trump coming into office , since these companies need the federal grants to compete with China, a second source said. Trump on the campaign trail said he would rescind all unspent funds in President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and scrap Environmental Protection Agency tailpipe standards, which he called an electric vehicle (EV) "mandate". The Biden administration is racing to try and secure projects set to be funded by the IRA. On 16 December, US battery materials producer Novonix received a conditional loan for up to $754mn for a new synthetic graphite plant from the US Department of Energy (DOE). If finalised, the loan would be used to build a new 31,500 t/yr synthetic graphite plant in Tennessee by the end of 2028. DOE previously awarded Novonix a $100mn grant and a $103mn tax credit to expand capacity at its Tennessee plant to 40,000 t/yr by 2025 and 150,000 t/yr by 2030. DOE on 16 December also closed on its up to $9.6bn loan to South Korean battery manufacturer SK On for the construction of three battery plants in the US, the largest loan ever awarded under its Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Program. DOE also in September selected SKI US , part of India-based Birla Carbon, to receive $150mn build a 25,000 t/yr synthetic graphite production plant in South Carolina. Some in Trump's orbit have warned they will review contracts they view as hastily pushed out before the former president takes office . But some Republicans are likely to oppose full repeal of the IRA, since the bill funds projects in their districts. And Republicans will hold a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Even if Republicans do not repeal the IRA or other EV subsidies like tax credits, the uncertainty surrounding the new administration's support could be a stumbling block. "Who's going to put half a billion dollars into a battery plant right now when you don't have certainty on the push for EVs?" the first source said. Battery projects require huge amounts of investment. Swedish battery maker Northvolt obtained record venture capital investment for a European start-up at $15bn. But on 21 November, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US , in part because of difficulties "bridging financing between different stakeholders", outgoing chief executive Peter Carlsson said. The company had already closed down its R&D facility in the US and put plans for factories in Canada, Germany and Sweden on hold. Its financial woes intensified after the Swedish government declined to invest. Other European governments have already reduced financial support for EVs, more for spending reasons than policy, which has softened demand in the region. France recently changed eligibility requirements for subsidies , and Germany ended its subsidy late last year. Some companies, like Norwegian battery materials company Vianode, have been planning multi-billion dollar investment programmes to expand their reach in the automotive industry throughout North America and Europe. It is not clear if Trump's election will have an effect on these plans. Vianode opened its first anode graphite production plant, Via One, in Herøya, Norway, in October. The plant will have a capacity of 2,000 t/yr, enough to supply 30,000 EVs annually, according to Vianode. Chinese firms have scaled up production of key battery materials at all stages of the supply chain, creating more competition for European and US producers. Chinese producers dominate the global EV market with about 70pc of market share, even as the EU and US have put policies in place to try to support their domestic industry. China's lithium-ion battery exports to the US jumped in November as suppliers looked to get ahead of potential new tariffs. The Trump administration is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese lithium-ion batteries to as much as 60pc in the coming few months after Biden earlier this year lifted them to 25pc from 7.5pc. This could help support US-based battery plants. But tariffs on Chinese goods could also present additional challenges, as the raw materials for synthetic graphite often have some Chinese components. Needle coke, traditionally the main raw material for synthetic graphite used in battery anodes, is not widely produced outside of China. And while companies in China have been researching options for using a wider range of petroleum coke qualities , specifications are still relatively narrow, with battery companies in China absorbing most of the world's suitable coke . One graphite anode plant in Europe has been struggling to procure petroleum coke, according to a market participant. Sourcing coke for synthetic graphite in Europe and other ex-China locations is likely challenging, as most of these refineries and calciners have tied up their supply in long-term commitments, one producer said. Refineries are also reducing coke production, as the required feedstocks have become more costly. By Lauren Masterson and Hadley Medlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Zinc prices to drop in 2025 on higher supply

30/12/24

News

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Zinc prices to drop in 2025 on higher supply

London, 30 December (Argus) — Zinc prices increased this year as supply was tight, but prices are expected to soften next year because of improved supply and continued weak demand in key consumption markets. Zinc has been one of the best performers of the London Metal Exchange base metals this year, trading above $3,000/t going into December compared with a $2,537/t average in January. This puts this year's average price 6pc higher than the 2023 average. The price strength seen this year can be attributed to supply pressures, including production disruptions at key mines. Global mining group Glencore's McArthur River mine in Australia halted operations in March owing to extreme rainfall, and Chinese mining company MMG's Dugald River mine in China was placed under care and maintenance during the third quarter. The zinc market had a 164,000t deficit in 2024, according to forecasts from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), additionally driven by reduced mined output from Swedish metals producer Boliden's Tara mine in Ireland, and Portuguese mining company Almina's Aljustrel mines in Portugal. Higher supply forecast Supply is expected to increase in 2025, with ILZSG forecasting a surplus of 148,000t for the year, as new mine supply is scheduled to ramp up. One of the biggest supply-side developments is the reopening of Canadian mining firm Ivanhoe Mines' Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Kipushi is expected to produce 278,000 t/yr of zinc over its first five years, and will become Africa's largest zinc mine and the fourth-largest globally, according to Ivanhoe. In Europe, higher output from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Portugal, and the reopening of the Tara operations in Ireland, will contribute to the overall increase in supply, according to ILZSG. Russia's production is also expected to rise, supported by the recently opened Ozerneoye plant . Australia, Canada, China, Japan, the Netherlands and Norway will also all see concentrate supply increases next year, particularly in the first quarter, with an expansion at Boliden's Odda smelter due to ramp up output early in the new year. Global mined supply has declined over the past three years, but trading firm Macquarie expects global mine supply to grow by 5.8pc in 2025. Total project approvals this year reached around 570,000 t/yr of zinc, Macquarie said in its 2025 global commodity outlook, published on 5 December. Persistent weak demand But demand growth may be insufficient to absorb this additional output, leading to oversupply in the coming years. Global carbon steel demand has fallen this year, as construction sector demand has generally been weak across most major economies, including China. Construction steel accounts for 55pc of zinc end demand, according to Macquarie. The Argus weekly ex-works northwest Europe assessment for hot-dipped galvanised steel — one of the main products that use zinc — has dropped by nearly 17pc from the start of the year to €665/t ($690/t) on 4 December, reflecting a struggling steel sector in Europe. European manufacturing activity also remains weak, with the automobile sector facing a number of factory closures because of subdued demand. German carmaker Volkswagen announced in late October that it plans to close at least three plants and lay off thousands of employees, as the firm attempts to save money amid falling sales because of an overall decrease in European car demand. And global automaker Stellantis plans to cut its inventories going into the new year. Macquarie predicts that global refined zinc demand will grow by 1.7pc in 2025, which is lower than the previously anticipated 2.5pc growth rate because of uncertainty surrounding potential new US tariffs following the inauguration of president-elect Donald Trump in January. The proposed tariffs could impact the strength of the US dollar and global trade. Zinc premiums in Europe decreased in 2024. The Argus Rotterdam SHG zinc premium dropped by nearly 30pc throughout the year, reflecting weaker consumption from downstream industries, particularly construction and manufacturing. Ongoing uncertainty over global economic conditions, high energy costs and new supply in Europe will likely play a role in keeping premiums subdued. Price outlook 2025 Given the anticipated supply surplus and the ongoing demand lag, analysts are generally bearish on zinc prices in 2025. The 2024 zinc price currently averages at $2,800/t, but the World Bank and ratings agency Fitch both expect this to decline to $2,600/t in 2025, followed by a further drop to $2,500/t in 2026. Similarly, Macquarie forecasts the zinc price to drop to $2,650/t next year and to $2,450/t in 2026, reflecting expectations of a market surplus. By Roxana Lazar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Ti scrap’s rebound pinned on Boeing, melters

30/12/24

News

30/12/24

Viewpoint: Ti scrap’s rebound pinned on Boeing, melters

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Domestic titanium scrap demand and, in turn, prices are expected to increase in the second half of 2025, supported by a recovery in aircraft build rates and expansions in titanium melters' capacity that have boosted sentiment across the supply chain following a disappointing year. Industry expectations of greater scrap requirements in 2024 — predicated on aerospace manufacturers increasing their build rates — failed to materialize after production missteps and supply chain bottlenecks forced Boeing to curb output of its main aircraft programs and Airbus to delay its ramp targets . US prices for aerospace-grade titanium scrap have tumbled this year compared with 2023 averages, with 6-4 turnings off by 25pc and 6-4 bulk weldable down by 13pc through mid-December from the same period the prior year. Titanium melters' efforts to control input costs have had a trickle-down effect across the scrap supply chain, compelling processors and dealers to reduce their bids also to protect margins. Scrap suppliers foresee stronger consumption signals for 2025, pointing to the return of Boeing's 737 MAX production following a seven-week strike and the gradual decline of scrap inventories that have remained elevated relative to demand. Dealer and processors also are looking forward to the return of normalized build rates for Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, its main wide-body model that contains about 15pc titanium compared with around 6pc for the 737. Production of the 787 has been hampered this year because of parts shortages , which the airframer expects to stamp out before year end. Still, those outlooks may be upended depending on whether US president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plans to impose sweeping tariffs on all imports into the US, and sources told Argus that any recovery likely will not take place until the summer at the earliest, cautioning that it would take months before the scrap industry would benefit from the comeback in aircraft manufacturing. Feeding new furnaces Market participants are banking on additional ingot production capacity that is scheduled to come on line in 2025 to fuel demand for aerospace-grade scrap, saying titanium melters will want to keep their new furnaces running hot. ATI expects to finish product qualifications related to its expansion at its Richland, Washington, operations next year, which should boost its melting capacity by 35pc over 2022 levels. Titanium Metals (TIMET) this summer plans to commission its new plant in Ravenswood, West Virginia, which is expected to turn out 33mn lbs of ingot annually in the project's first phase. Still, lengthy product qualifications may push out any benefit for the scrap supply chain to 2026. Perryman currently is ramping up after expanding its facility in Coal Center, Pennsylvania, that should grow the company's melting capacity by 16mn lbs to 42mn lbs annually. All those additions could lead to a run-up in scrap prices because of greater competition by melters for the same units, while longer lead times to get milled titanium products into machine shops creates a lag effect that leaves downstream generation largely unchanged. Trump-induced uncertainty A major source of uncertainty for next year centers around Trump's tariff policies, which have caused concern in the market. Trump campaigned on vows to levy 60pc duties on shipments from China, and more recently pledged 25pc duties on shipments from Mexico and Canada, and a 20pc duty on all other imports. If those come to fruition, it would increase costs for imports of titanium scrap — currently freely traded for all countries except China. But the tariff threats could also be Trump's way of generating negotiating leverage for his aims. "A duty on scrap from Europe and Japan would be a disaster for the industry," one source said. US titanium scrap imports reached 23,578 metric tonnes (t) through January-October, eclipsing the 22,453t sent in the same period in 2023 — a four-year high — and nearing pre-pandemic levels. By Alex Nicoll Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US acid market in west to east split in 2025

30/12/24

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: US acid market in west to east split in 2025

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Vastly different dynamics are expected for the western and eastern US sulphuric acid markets in 2025. Lower output from producers in the western US and Canada will keep supply constrained for much of 2025, likely driving west coast US sulphuric acid imports higher during the year. But balanced dynamics will keep the southeastern US and Gulf coast markets competitive, shielding both regions from the global market dynamics. Deliveries of sulphuric acid to the US west coast from January-October of 2024 climbed by 35pc on the year to 188,700t, according to US Census data, making up for lower-than-expected output from producers, which squeezed availability throughout the region. The closure of Simplot's Lathrop, California, sulphur burner at the beginning of 2024 had already reduced baseline supply on the US west coast. Market sources expect output at Teck's Trail Operations in British Columbia, Canada, to be reduced through at least the first half of 2025 because of technical issues with the facility's electrolytic zinc plant following a fire in late September. Sources said that less volumes were available from the company's western Canadian facility during annual contract negotiations this year as a result. In its third quarter earnings release Teck reduced outlook for 2024 zinc production from its Trail Operations facility by 13.3pc as a result of the fire at the plant, but has not provided guidance for byproduct acid production or zinc production in 2025. In Utah, lower output from Rio Tinto's 1mn t/yr Kennecott smelter is expected to continue into 2025. Reduced copper ore quality has contributed to lower copper concentrate production from the facility. The company is expected to continue to purchase copper concentrate from a third-party supplier to support smelter utilization. Balance rules in the east But in the eastern US, steady output from domestic producers has matched, and sometimes outpaced, demand in the region. This trend has kept prices relatively steady and spot import demand reduced from previous levels. Despite a 6.3pc year to year increase to total US sulphuric acid imports during January-October to 2.9mn t, the bulk of the increase came from higher volumes of spot imports into Houston, Texas, according to US Census data. Deliveries to other major ports in the US Gulf and east coast sank by 28pc. Deliveries of sulphuric acid into the port of Houston from January-October jumped to 264,200t, more than doubling the 115,100t arriving during the same period in 2023. Sulphuric acid imports to other ports in the Gulf coast and east coast fell significantly from January-October, dropping by 28pc to 359,800t compared with 497,900t during the same time in 2023. Spot trade into the US Gulf coast and southeast has been quiet for much of the year, aside from consistent spot shipments into Houston. Market participants expect the balanced nature of the market to continue through much of 2025, reducing the need for imports on contract and spot basis. Prices in a tightly-supplied global merchant market remain largely uneconomic for US-based distributors. The imbalanced relationship of prices in the US and the merchant market has kept bids far from offers, slowing spot trade into the Gulf coast and southeast. By Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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