The Scottish government has opened for consultation a draft energy and transition strategy that lays out a plan to rapidly scale up renewable energy, avoids new nuclear and positions itself against further oil and gas exploration.
The government has proposed to add 12GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030 — more than doubling capacity to above 20GW. Its ambitions for offshore wind involve a significant increase to capacity of 8-11GW by 2030, up from June 2022 capacity of 1.9GW — although it noted that projects with consent amount to a further 3.8GW.
The government pointed to the success of the ScotWind leasing round, which saw 25GW of leasing options agreements awarded in January 2022. The targeted growth in renewable capacity would cover more than double Scotland's electricity demand by 2030, allowing it to export power, according to the consultation. Scotland's government has also set a target of 5GW of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030, and of 25GW by 2045. It reiterates its position against additional nuclear generating capacity in the consultation document.
Scotland has committed to a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2045, five years earlier than the UK as a whole. But not all powers are devolved, with London retaining much decision-making clout. This is the case for carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS), and the Scottish government said London's "certainty and support… is essential to accelerate the Scottish Cluster project". Scotland's CCUS cluster was not chosen by the UK as one of its 'Track 1' clusters, for which it is targeting deployment in the mid-2020s.
Scotland's government called on London to take action on electricity market reform and energy affordability.
North Sea oil and gas output decline
The Scottish government has finalised its position of no support for unconventional oil and gas in Scotland and is working on settling its policy on onshore conventional oil, gas and coal extraction. While it has powers over onshore oil and gas, decisions on the offshore sector fall to the UK government. Still, it is consulting on whether there should be "a presumption against new exploration for oil and gas".
Oil and gas production from the UK's North Sea is naturally declining, with levels in 2035 expected to be at about 35pc of 2019 output — or roughly 500,000 b/d of oil equivalent — the consultation noted.
"Production will decline, even with the UK government's position on new exploration", the Scottish government said — referencing the 33rd licensing round, launched in October last year. This will have an "incremental, not a transformative, effect on production forecasts", the Scottish government said.
Scotland's position as a fossil fuel exporter has not insulated the country from rising costs, and arranging a move away from fossil fuels is essential to ensure a socially-just transition, the government said.
But offshore industry body OEUK said that as a large share of final energy demand comes from oil and gas, "we need to ensure that the final strategy acknowledges the continuing role of oil and gas in Scotland's economy".
The Scottish government has also suggested that climate compatibility checkpoints — which ensure future licensing is in line with the UK's climate objectives — should be strengthened and extended to cover fields that have approval but are not yet producing. Checkpoints should assess a proposed project's "contribution to international climate commitments", it said.
The consultation closes on 4 April and the government expects to use the responses to inform a final version, to be published late this year.
