Brazil's coffee crop could break biennial cycle

Market: Agriculture, Fertilizers
19/01/23

Brazil's 2023 coffee crop is expected to be 8pc bigger than in 2022, despite a negative biennial year.

Coffee production should reach 54.9mn 60kg bags of processed coffee this season, according to the first estimate by national supply company Conab for the 2023 crop. The volume is higher than the 50.9mn bags reached in 2022.

Arabica coffee production is estimated at 37.4mn bags, up by 14.4pc year-on-year. Conilon coffee production is expected to reach 17.5mn bags, down by 3.8pc from 2022.

The total area allocated to growing coffee in Brazil in 2023, considering both types of coffee, is expected to reach almost 2.3mn hectares (ha), a 0.8pc increase from the previous crop.

The area set aside for coffee is divided between space for production and space for formation of new crops. About 1.9mn ha will be allocated to crops in production, up by 3.3pc from the previous year, and 355,500ha for formation, down by 11pc from the previous cycle.

Productivity for the 2023 coffee crop is forecast at 28.9 bags/ha, up by 4.4pc from the 27.7 bags/ha recorded in 2022.

The two types of coffee have different characteristics, such as productivity levels, producing regions and harvesting calendars.

Coffee production also has a biennial nature, meaning that one year the crop produces a larger number of fruits, which requires more nutrients. In the following year — referred to as the negative biennial cycle — the plant recomposes its structure and nutritional reserves, reducing production.

But Conab expects that the biennial cycle will be broken for the first time since 2001, when the company started monitoring coffee crops. That is because the 2022 crop was harmed by low rainfall, long droughts and above-normal temperatures during much of its development. In addition, producers have more technology at their disposal, which helps increase coffee productivity.

Brazil exported 39.8mn bags of coffee in 2022, a 6.3pc decrease from 2021, a result of the Brazilian real's declining value to the US dollar and reduced domestic supply in the period. The main destinations for these exports were the US and Germany, which received 20.2pc and 18.2pc of the country's total volume, respectively.

Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer, followed by Vietnam and Colombia.

By João Petrini

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