US consumer prices rise more than expected in January

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
14/02/23

US consumer price inflation slowed less than forecast in January on stubborn gains in energy and shelter, a sign the Federal Reserve is likely to keep hiking its target rate to rein in price gains.

The consumer price index (CPI) — which tracks prices of a basket of finished products and services — rose in January by 6.4pc from a year earlier, down from 6.5pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today. The January increase compared with analysts' estimates of about a 6.2pc gain. Still, it was the slowest annual gain since October 2021.

So-called core inflation, which strips out more volatile energy and food costs, rose at a 5.6pc annual pace, down from the prior month's 5.7pc increase.

The slightly higher than forecast gain in consumer prices suggests the Fed is almost certain to hike its target rate by a quarter point at its next policy meeting in March, with another hike in May also possible. The Fed has increased its target rate to a range of 4.5-4.75pc from near zero since March 2022 and has signaled it will continue to hike its target rate, although at a diminishing pace, until inflation is again on course to meet its long-term target of about 2pc.

Compared with the prior month, the CPI rose by 0.5pc in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a 0.1pc gain in December, but well off the cyclical peak of 1.3pc last June.

Core CPI rose by a monthly 0.4pc in January, matching the prior month's gain. The core goods index rose by 0.1pc from the prior month, while services excluding energy services rose by 0.5pc after a 0.6pc gain in December.

In the 12 months through January, the food index increased by 10.1pc, slowing from 10.4pc in December, while the shelter index rose by 7.9pc, accelerating from 7.5pc in December.

The energy index rose in January by 2pc from the prior month after a 3.1pc monthly decrease in December. The shelter index rose by 0.7pc from the prior month after a 0.8pc monthly gain in December.

Over the 12-month period, the energy index increased by 8.7pc in January after a 7.3pc gain the prior month. The gasoline index increased by 1.5pc from a year earlier after a 1.5pc decline in December, and the fuel oil index rose on the year by 27.7pc after a 41.5pc gain in December.

By Robert Willis

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26/11/24

Nigeria restarts Port Harcourt refinery: Update

Recasts and adds details throughout London, 26 November (Argus) — Nigeria's state-owned NNPC said today it has restarted its 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery after three and a half years offline. Product loadings began today after the plant's smaller, 60,000 b/d capacity crude distillation unit (CDU) came into operation. This gradual restart had been planned by Italian engineering firm Maire Tecnimont, which has been rehabilitating the plant under a $1.5bn contract, although a number of deadlines announced by NNPC have been missed. Refined products from Port Harcourt will add to the gasoline that has been supplied since September from the 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. Product imports are likely to fall, an industry source said. Nigerian downstream regulator NMDPRA's head Farouk Ahmed said products from Port Harcourt will be made available nationwide and would stoke price competition. Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported an average national gasoline price of 1,185/litre (70¢/l) for October, a rise of 88pc on the year and 15pc from September. The price of diesel, which has been deregulated since 2003, was an average N1,441/l in October, NBS said, up by 43pc on the year and by 2pc on the month. The Dangote Group dropped its ex-gantry gasoline prices on Sunday, 24 November, to N970/l from N990/l. Nigerian importers already appear under pressure to compete with Dangote on product pricing, which the Port Harcourt start-up may exacerbate. A local trader said he has found gasoline trading economics most workable when lifting from Dangote ex-single point mooring (SPM) and delivering to coastal ports such as Port Harcourt and Warri in Nigeria's southeast, where truck deliveries from Dangote would prove uneconomic. Nigeria's presidency and NMDPRA's Ahmed urged NNPC to now bring back online its 125,000 b/d Warri and 110,000 b/d Kaduna refineries, which have been closed since 2019. NNPC has opened a combined tender for operating and maintaining these. The outcome of a similar tender for Port Harcourt is unclear. Nigeria would become a net products exporter when Warri and Kaduna come online, NMDPRA's Ahmed said today. A source at the regulator said exports might become vital to Nigerian refiners. "The patronage for petroleum products is low and Nigeria is oversupplied," the source said, attributing the latest Dangote price cut to competition with imports and weak demand. The prospect of Port Harcourt running at its nameplate capacity is in doubt, sources said. It would at best reach 40-50pc of capacity, the industry source said, which would focus on mainly local gasoline deliveries. Port Harcourt was shut in 2020 after several years of low capacity utilisation. NNPC previously said it expects the initial 60,000 b/d phase to produce 12,000 b/d of gasoline, 13,000 b/d of diesel, 8,600 b/d of kerosine, 19,000 b/d of fuel oil and 850 b/d of LPG in the first year of resumed operations. By Adebiyi Olusolape and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

25/11/24

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25/11/24

Uruguay's left-wing candidate wins presidency

Montevideo, 25 November (Argus) — The left-wing opposition Frente Amplio will return to power in Uruguay after winning a hard-fought run-off election on 24 November. Yamandu Orsi, former mayor of the Canalones department, was elected president with close to 51pc of valid votes. He defeated Alvaro Delgado, of the ruling Partido Nacional. The Frente will control the senate, but will have a minority in the lower chamber. It last governed from 2015-2020. Orsi will take office on 1 March in one of Latin America's most stable economies, with the World Bank forecasting growth at 3.2pc for this year, much higher than the 1.9pc regional average. He will also inherit a country that has been making strides to implement a second energy transition geared toward continued decarbonization and new technologies, such as SAF and low-carbon hydrogen. He will also have to decide on future oil and natural gas exploration. Uruguay does not produce oil or gas, but has hopes that its offshore mimics that of Nambia, because of similar geology. TotalEnergies has made a major find there. The Frente's government plan states that it "will deepen the energy transition, focusing on the use of renewable energy, and decarbonization of the economy and transportation … gradually regulating so that public and cargo transportation can operate with hydrogen." On to hydrogen Uruguay is already the regional leader with renewable energy, with renewables covering 100pc of power demand on 24 November, according to the state-run power company, UTE. Wind accounted for 49pc, hydro 35pc, biomass 10pc and solar 6pc. Orsi will need to make decisions regarding high-profile projects for low-carbon hydrogen, as well as a push by the state-run Ancap to get private companies to ramp up oil and gas exploration on seven offshore blocks. The industry, energy and mining ministry lists four planned low-carbon hydrogen projects, including one between Chile's HIF and Ancap subsidiary Alur that would have a 1GW electrolyzer. Germany's Enertrag is working on an e-methanol project with a 150MW electrolyzer, while two Uruguayan groups are working on small projects with 2MW and 5MW electrolyzers, respectively. The Orsi government will also need to decide if it continues with Ancap's planned bidding process for four offshore blocks, each between 600-800km² (232-309 mi²), to generate up to 3.2GW of wind power to produce 200,000 t/yr of green hydrogen on floating platforms. The Frente has been noncommittal about the future of seven offshore oil and gas blocks, including three held by Shell, two by the UK's Challenger — which recently farmed in Chevron — and one each by Argentina's state-owned YPF and US-based APA Corporation. The Frente's government plan states that "a national dialogue will be called to analyze the impacts and alternatives to exploration and extraction of fossil fuels." By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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25/11/24

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25/11/24

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ risks industry pushback

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US’ Peabody to buy Anglo’s Australian met coal assets

25/11/24

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25/11/24

US’ Peabody to buy Anglo’s Australian met coal assets

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Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

22/11/24

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22/11/24

Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

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