Tight credit, China impact dent Vietnam scrap recovery

Market: Metals
16/02/23

Any recovery in the Vietnamese ferrous scrap market in the first half of this year will likely be curtailed by high interest rates, prolonged credit tightness in the domestic real estate industry and uncertainty in the Chinese steel market.

The Vietnamese ferrous industry experienced a turbulent 2022 because of depressed steel demand and margins. A continuing credit crunch and restrictions on corporate bond sales have continued to weigh heavily on the nation's ailing real estate sector. Rising inflation and interest rates have also discouraged potential home owners from making purchases, which placed further pressure on the sector. Credit rating agency Moody's on 31 January downgraded its outlook on Vietnam's banking system from "positive" to "stable" on growing asset risks in the real estate sector and increased funding costs.

Vietnamese commercial banks have started to lower interest rates for deposits in January, while keeping lending rate at a high level of above 12pc. The number of property developers became insolvent in 2022 rose by 38.7pc from a year earlier in 2022, with many others forced to scale down business, either by stopping new project launches or delaying construction because of high financing cost and difficulty in new corporate bonds issues.

Vietnam's road to recovery in the steel and scrap market may be hindered if the real estate industry remains subdued, while a sluggish steel export market may further exacerbate this bearishness.

Vietnam's domestic steel sales in 2022 accounted for about 71pc of total finished steel production, according to customs data, down from 82pc in 2019 and 80pc in 2018, suggesting that domestic steel consumption has yet to fully recover to pre-Covid-19 levels. Stagnant steel sales in both the domestic and export markets drove steel producers to slash production to around 30pc in 2022, which consequently led to a 34.3pc fall in scrap imports against a year earlier. Vietnam imported 4.16mn t of steel scrap in 2022.

Vietnamese steel and scrap market fundamentals typically pick up during October-December as steel producers prepare for the peak construction season after the lunar new year holiday. Scrap prices were on an upwards trajectory in December with the higher production costs passed on to construction companies, which ultimately slowed steel sales.

Chinese caution

A slower than expected recovery in the Chinese steel market after the country removed most of its Covid-19 restrictions has led Vietnamese steel mills to become more cautious about new scrap purchases, as China has a pivotal impact on Asian steel markets. Chinese mills supply finished steel products like hot-rolled coil to Vietnam and import a substantial amount of semi-finished steel products from Vietnam when demand is robust.

Shanghai rebar ex-works prices increased by 130 yuan/t from 5 January to Yn4,150/t on 31 January, as market participants were bullish about the demand after the lunar new year holiday in February. But construction steel demand from the real estate industry were weaker than participants' expectation after the holiday, with rebar prices falling by Yn90/t from 31 January to Yn4,060/t on 14 February.

If Chinese domestic steel demand continues to weaken in February and March, Chinese mills may destock existing steel inventories to other Asian markets and cease billet imports, which will consequently weigh on Vietnamese mills' steel sales and prices.

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

09/05/25

Q&A: US' ACE Green bets on LFP batteries

Singapore, 9 May (Argus) — US-based battery recycler ACE Green Recycling has been focusing on the US market, particularly its upcoming Texas recycling site, and plans to run its lead-acid and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery recycling operations alongside each other in Texas. Argus spoke with ACE Green Recycling's vice-president of investments and strategy, Aaron Wee, about their Texas site, battery recycling gate fees in Europe and the black mass market. The interview is split into two parts and part two's edited highlights follow: What's your view on the US market? The US market for lead is [one of] the most attractive market in the world. It's where you can find possibly some of the cheapest scrap batteries for lead, and also get some of the highest premiums on refined and alloyed lead. In terms of lithium, obviously the US is either the second- or the third-largest economy for [electric vehicles] and lithium batteries in general. Nowadays, with the improvements in LFP battery technology, the range and energy density problems of the past are now not really an issue. We sort of predicted the shift towards LFP quite some time ago. Back when the recyclers were concerned about nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) because we're going to get nickel, we're going to get cobalt. That was a relatively easy win for a lot of recyclers. But for us, LFP was always going to be the battery of the future. In fact, in our Texas project, we've already [begun the process of acquiring] the land and the facilities to combine both our battery recycling technology stacks and to co-locate them in a single location. But lead will start first because lead is going to make money tomorrow. LFP might take a little bit of time before feedstock actually comes in. What does ACE think of gate fees, especially in Europe? Does it distort the long-term consideration when setting up battery recycling operations? From a commercial point of view, I think depending on the battery type, that would be €500-800/t of batteries for gate fees in Europe. This may or may not hold over the next couple of years as more recycling capabilities are deployed in Europe. We won't say no to just getting money to recycle them. But our ultimate goal is not to rely on gate fees as a commercial strategy. Moving forward, I don't think any company can rely on gate fees as a strategy. It just won't be tenable. Eventually, somebody's going to be able to do it cheaper and better than you. And if you rely on gate fees, that's the end game right there. Gate fees are usually correlated with the price of lithium. [If] the price of lithium goes up, then recyclers won't [need to] rely on [gate fees]. Chances are we're going to be looking at maybe $12,000/t of lithium carbonate, [or] maybe $11,000 by the end of this year. What does ACE feel about the current pricing mechanism of black mass, battery scrap or even lithium? The correlation between lithium prices and black mass is very strong. But black mass as a commodity is a little bit trickier to export to China because of the regulations. Once they accept black mass [imports], especially LFP black mass, that will have a significant change. There will also perhaps be a fall in prices in the rest of the world because now they can sell to China, not just internally in their own domestic markets. Depending on how trade barriers may or may not come up over the next couple of months, we should see a shift in how black mass is priced. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

EU consults on tariffs for €95bn US imports

09/05/25

News

09/05/25

EU consults on tariffs for €95bn US imports

Brussels, 9 May (Argus) — The European Commission is consulting on an extensive list, worth €95bn ($107bn), of US industrial, agricultural and other imports that could be subject to tariff countermeasures. The long list includes extends from livestock, biofuels, wood pellets to metals, aircraft, tankers and polymers . The consultation runs until midday on 10 June. It is aimed at stakeholders affected by US measures and possible EU rebalancing measures. Also considered for possible countermeasures are restrictions, worth €4.4bn, on EU exports to the US of steel, iron and aluminium scrap, as well as toluidines, alcoholic solutions and enzymes (CN codes 7204, 7602, 292143, 330210 and 350790). The commission linked the possible new measures to US universal tariffs and to Washington's specific tariffs on cars and car parts. The commission said the public consultation is a necessary procedural step. It does not automatically result in countermeasures. The EU also launched a WTO dispute procedure against the US for Washington's universal tariffs, set at 20pc for EU goods and currently paused at 10pc, and at 25pc on all imports of vehicles and car parts. The commission will need approval by EU governments under a simplified legislative procedure. Officials say this will complete a legal act for the countermeasures, making them "ready to use" if talks with the US do not produce a "satisfactory" result. The list of products potentially targeted includes livestock, along with items ranging from spectacles to antiques. The 218-page list includes a range of agricultural and food products including oats, maize, and cereal pellets. Also included are biodiesel and wood pellets (CN codes 38260010, 44013100), as well as paper and cotton products. Aluminium, iron, steel are listed together with a wide range of other goods from gas turbines, ships propellers and blades, aircraft, sea-going tankers and other vessels. Polymers, copolymers, polyesters and other products are not spared (CN codes 39039090 and more). On 10 April, the EU paused its reciprocal tariffs against the US for 90 days, responding to a US pause. The EU notes that €379bn, or 70pc, of the bloc's exports to the US are currently subject to new or paused tariffs. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK

08/05/25

News

08/05/25

Trump to grant partial tariff relief to UK

Washington, 8 May (Argus) — The US will carve out import quotas for UK-produced cars and, eventually, reduce tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, under a preliminary deal US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer announced today. The Trump administration will allow UK car manufacturers to export 100,000 cars to the US at a 10pc tariff rate, instead of the 25pc tariff to which all foreign auto imports are subject. The US and the UK will negotiate a "trading union" on steel and aluminum that will harmonize supply chains, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said. The US commended the UK government on taking control of Chinese-owned steelmaker British Steel last month. As a result of that action, under yet to be negotiated arrangements, the US would reconsider the UK's inclusion in its 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum, the White House said. Starmer, speaking after the ceremony, told reporters that US tariffs on the UK-sourced steel and aluminum would, in fact, fall to zero. Trump announced the deal during a ceremony at the White House, with Starmer phoning in. The two leaders suggested that their preliminary deal was as significant as the end of World War II in Europe, 80 years ago. But that deal, which Trump described as "full and comprehensive" hours before its announcement is anything but that. Under the "US-UK Agreement in Principle to negotiate an Economic Prosperity Deal", the US will maintain the 10pc baseline tariff on nearly all imports from the UK that went into effect on 5 April, Trump said. The UK, Trump said, would lower the effective rate on US imports to 1.8pc from 5.1pc. The actual details of the agreement are yet to be negotiated. "The final deal is being written up" in the coming weeks, Trump said, adding that it was "very conclusive". Boeing, beef and biofuel The UK would commit to buying $10bn worth of Boeing airplanes, Trump said. He described the UK market as "closed" to US beef, ethanol and many other products, and said that the UK agreed to open its agricultural markets as a result of his deal. US ethanol exports to the UK, in fact, rose by 23pc year-on-year in March. Under the deal, the UK would expand market access to US ethanol, creating $500mn more in US exports, the White House said. The UK will reduce to zero the tariff on US-sourced ethanol, the UK Department of Business said, adding that "it is used to produce beer". Trump previewed the preliminary deal with the UK as the first of the many trade agreements the US administration is negotiating with many other countries. Trump contended today that there are trade talks underway with the EU and expressed confidence that the US-China trade discussions expected over the weekend would produce results. But Trump added that he will not lower the high tariffs on imports from nearly every US trade partner he imposed last month and described the UK's 10pc tariff rate as a favor to that country. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

India-UK FTA cuts tariffs on Indian auto imports

08/05/25

News

08/05/25

India-UK FTA cuts tariffs on Indian auto imports

Mumbai, 8 May (Argus) — The free trade agreement (FTA) finalised between India and the UK early on 6 May will cut tariffs on cars imported from the UK to 10pc from over 100pc earlier under a quota. The landmark FTA follows several rounds of negotiations between India and the UK that were first launched in January 2022. The import duty cuts are expected to make UK-manufactured cars more affordable for Indian consumers. Cosmetics, whisky and gin exports from the UK will also benefit from tariff reduction, the UK government said. Tariffs will also be eliminated on 99pc of Indian goods imported into the UK. This is likely to boost exports of auto parts and other goods such as textiles, footwear and gems and jewellery to the UK, according to the Indian government. Indian exported $21.2bn worth of auto components in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, 32pc of which went to Europe, government data show. "The FTA will be integral in opening new growth avenues and enhancing export potential for auto component and electric vehicle (EV) materials manufacturers," Indian firm Epsilon Carbon managing director Vikram Handa said. Total trade in goods and services between India and the UK stood at £42.6bn ($56.7bn) in 2024. After the FTA, bilateral trade is expected to increase by £25.5bn each year, according to the UK government. Non-ferrous metals, metal ores and scrap and mechanical power generators were among the top exported goods from the UK to India last year. For India, refined oil, clothing and telecoms and pharmaceutical products accounted for a major share of exports to the UK. Exports of iron and steel products from India to the UK rose by nearly 70pc on the year to £489.2mn in 2024, UK government data show. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US Fed holds rate, awaits 'clarity' on tariffs: Update

07/05/25

News

07/05/25

US Fed holds rate, awaits 'clarity' on tariffs: Update

Adds Powell comments, CME, GDP data. Houston, 7 May (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers kept their target interest rate flat today for a third time this year, noting that economic "uncertainty" has increased, while signaling they would continue to monitor the impacts of the new US administration's policies before adjusting monetary policy. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. The Fed has held the target rate unchanged this year after three rate cuts late last year lowered the target rate by 100 basis points from a two-decade high of 5.25-5.5pc after the Fed sharply hiked rates from near zero to battle inflation that topped 9pc in 2022 during the overheated recovery from the Covid-19 slump. "If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment," Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the decision. "All of these policies are still evolving however, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain." Powell also noted that "we are entering a new phase where the administration is entering into beginning talks with a number of our important trading partners and that has the potential to change the picture materially." US economic growth contracted by an annual 0.3pc in the first quarter of 2025 following 2.4pc growth in the fourth quarter. It was the first quarter of negative growth in three years and raised concerns that the US may be entering a recession amid a raft of poor consumer and business confidence surveys. But Powell pointed out that the driver of the first-quarter contraction was a "distortion" caused by a spike in imports, which subtracts from GDP growth, as businesses stocked up on inventory from abroad to get ahead of the tariff impacts. Overall, he said, "the economy is growing at a solid pace, the labor market appears to be solid. Inflation is running a bit above 2pc. So it's an economy that's been resilient and in good shape." The Fed earlier penciled in two likely quarter point rate cuts this year, but the administration of President Donald Trump's chaotic rolling out of tariff and federal spending policies has continued to push back the likelihood of cuts to the federal funds rate, as measured by the CME's FedWatch tool, to the back half of the year. FedWatch, after Wednesday's decision, sees a 23.3pc probability of a quarter point cut at the June Fed meeting, down from 30.5pc Tuesday. Odds of a quarter point cut in July were little changed at 57pc from the prior day. "Ultimately we think our policy rate is in a good place to stay as we await further clarity on tariffs and ultimately their implications for the economy," Powell said. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more