The Chinese antimony market ended February at an 11-year high after rising sharply since late December 2022, on tighter supply owing to lower global mining output and higher demand from the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry.
Prices for 99.85pc grade antimony metal were last assessed stable at 85,000-86,000 yuan/t ($12,317-12,464/t) ex-works on 28 February, marking an 11-year high, following a rise of Yn12,000/t from 20 December 2022 to 14 February. Export prices surged by $2,150/t over the same period, hitting a seven-month high of $13,100-13,400/t on 9 February and holding stable since then. Producers have withheld material from sales considering supply tightness, expecting prices to extend gains in the coming months.
Resource shortages
The global antimony market is facing resource shortages, with the service life for the world's 1.8mn t of antimony reserves expected to be 18 years, and that of China at less than six years based on the current rate of exploitation, according to data from the US Geological Survey (USGS).
Global antimony mine production totalled 110,000 t/yr of metal equivalent during 2019-2022, down sharply from 140,000-150,000 t/yr during 2013-2018, USGS data showed. Chinese mine production during 2019-2022 averaged around 60,000t/yr, down significantly compared with 80,000-120,000 t/yr during 2013-2018.
China remains the largest antimony producer in the world, although its mine production has fallen year after year because of depleting mine reserves and lower ore grades in resources held by large-sized mining firms such as Hsikwangshan and Chenzhou Mining. Output at smaller mines has been banned under environmental protection and security regulations.
China produced 38,198t metal equivalent of antimony concentrate in 2022, up by 6.7pc on the year, but down significantly from 60,200t in 2020 and 68,869t in 2019, data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association show. China has had to seek supplies from Russia, Australia, Tajikistan, Myanmar and other countries to feed metal smelters' production. New metal smelters in Thailand, Tajikistan and Oman are also competing for limited resources. China imported 29,132t of antimony concentrate in 2022, down by 14pc from 33,958t in 2021, according to customs data.
Increasing PV demand
Antimony demand from the solar PV industry is expected to rise to 24,000t in 2022, up by 33pc from a year earlier, and double that of the consumption before 2020, according to market participants. Demand from this sector is likely to continue its growth to 50,000t in 2025, if PV glass manufacturers continue to ramp up output in response to the country's decarbonisation initiatives, market participants told Argus.
But demand from the flame retardant sector, the other key downstream segment, weakened slightly in 2022 because of inflation, geopolitical conflicts, the Covid-19 restrictions and other factors that slowed the global economy growth. Dramatic price rises in bromine products have prompted downstream plastics producers to replace some bromine-antimony flame retardants with phosphorus-nitrogen flame retardants, and they might not switch back, said a flame retardant producer in northern China. China's reopening and potential economic growth are likely to bolster antimony demand from the plastics industry.
But bromine-antimony flame retardants remain dominant in the market because of its higher flame retardant efficiency. It will not be completely replaced by other retardants in the short term, according to market participants.
Global antimony metal exports totalled 45,000t in 2022, down from 58,000t in 2021, but up from 38,000t in 2020, customs data show. Global antimony oxide exports reached 64,534t in 2022, down from 75,717t in 2021, but up from 59,529t in 2020.
Supply uncertainties
Expected launches of new metal and concentrate production projects will likely ease supply shortages in China and weigh on prices. Geopolitical conflicts continue to bring many uncertainties to global economic growth.
Chinese base metals mining firm Huayu Mining is on track to start antimony concentrate supplies in April from its Talco Gold project in Tajikistan. The project is designed to process 1.5mn t/yr of ore to produce 2.2 t/yr of gold and 16,000 t/yr of metal equivalent of antimony concentrate when it reaches full capacity.
Russia's largest antimony-gold producer Polyus is likely to ship 80,000t of antimony ores containing less than 10,000t of metal equivalent to China from May to March 2024.
Major nonferrous producer China Tin Group is planning to develop an antimony metal project with a capacity of 30,000 t/yr in Hechi city in southwest Guangxi province, with details yet to be disclosed. Some small-sized mines in Hunan and Guangxi are likely to reopen this year to take advantage of sufficient profit margins created by price rises in the past two years.
