Tanker freight rates to see rapid growth: Bimco
Freight rates for crude and products will see rapid gains in 2023 and 2024 — similar to 2008, when rates often exceeded $100,000/d — with demand growth outpacing tanker supply, according to shipping association Bimco.
Demand for crude tankers will grow faster than supply by 2.5-3.5pc in both 2023 and 2024 and for product tankers this will be 4.5-5.5pc in 2023 and 2-3pc in 2024, said Bimco. In addition to this, the EU embargoes on Russian crude and products will mean Europe has to import from further-flung destinations, resulting in a 3-4pc increase in average sailing distances — adding significantly to tonne-mile demand and pushing spot freight rates higher.
The tightening of the demand-supply balance will lead to an increase in freight rates, time charter rates and second-hand ship prices, it said.
"The market will experience a period of sustained market strength that has not been seen since the 2008 financial crisis," said Bimco.
This jump will come on the back of the EIA's prediction of higher liquid fuels consumption in 2023 and 2024, along with the IMF's forecast of global economic growth over the same period — because of an improved outlook for the Chinese economies.
The EIA predicts China will account for 38pc of the growth in oil demand between 2022 and 2024, and India for 18pc. The Middle East will account for 15pc of growth.
Supply of new tankers will have a limited effect on demand growth, though, as Bimco forecasts crude tanker fleet growth of just 0.9pc in 2023 and 1.5pc in 2024. The product tanker fleet will grow by even less — just 0.4pc in 2023 and 1.1pc in 2024.
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Yemen warring factions reach UN-mediated financial deal
Yemen warring factions reach UN-mediated financial deal
Dubai, 25 July (Argus) — The UAE today welcomed a UN-mediated agreement between Yemen's warring factions that could allay economic woes in the impoverished country. The UAE's ministry of foreign affairs hailed the 23 July announcement of an agreement between the internationally recognised Yemen presidential leadership council (PLC) and the Houthi militant group "with respect to airlines and the banking sector." The UAE, alongside Saudi Arabia, support the PLC. The agreement stipulates "cancelling all the recent decisions and procedures against banks by both sides and refraining in the future from any similar decisions or procedures," and calls for the resumption of Yemenia Airways' flights between Sana'a and Jordan at three a day and operating flights to Cairo and India "daily or as needed." The deal was reached two days after Israeli jets bombed the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of Hodeidah. The internationally-recognised central bank in Aden in April ordered financial institutions to move their main operations from Houthi-held territory within 60 days or face sanctions. That deadline ran out in June, leading to a ban on dealing with six banks whose headquarters remained in Houthi-held Sana'a. The Houthis retaliated by taking similar measures against banks in PLC-held areas and seized four Yemenia Airways planes at Sana'a airport. The PLC said it hoped the Houthis would also meet a commitment to resume crude exports. Yemen's crude production collapsed soon after the start of the country's civil war, from around 170,000 b/d in 2011-13 to 50,000-60,000 b/d in 2022, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Data from analytics firm Kpler suggests Yemen has not exported any crude since October 2022. Threats yield results The Iran-backed Houthis earlier in July threatened to attack vital infrastructure such as airports and ports in Saudi Arabia, holding Riyadh responsible for decisions taken by Aden's central bank. The Houthis struck central Tel Aviv on 19 July, inviting an Israeli retaliation that took out a power station that supplies the Red Sea coastal city of Hodeidah and its port and fuel tanks, which are controlled by the Houthis. A breakthrough in the UN-mediated talks between the PLC and the Houthis resulted in the agreement on 22 July, a possible sign that Riyadh might have compromised to avoid a Houthi escalation. The Houthis have been attacking commercial ships in and around the Red Sea since November last year, six weeks after the breakout of the Israel-Hamas war, in what they say is an act of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q
Refining, LNG segments take Total’s profit lower in 2Q
London, 25 July (Argus) — TotalEnergies said today that a worsening performance at its downstream Refining & Chemicals business and its Integrated LNG segment led to a 7pc year-on-year decline in profit in the second quarter. Profit of $3.79bn was down from $5.72bn for the January-March quarter and from $4.09bn in the second quarter of 2023. When adjusted for inventory effects and special items, profit was $4.67bn — slightly lower than analysts had been expecting and 6pc down on the immediately preceding quarter. The biggest hit to profits was at the Refining & Chemicals segment, which reported an adjusted operating profit of $639mn for the April-June period, a 36pc fall on the year. Earlier in July, TotalEnergies had flagged lower refining margins in Europe and the Middle East, with its European Refining Margin Marker down by 37pc to $44.9/t compared with the first quarter. This margin decline was partially compensated for by an increase in its refineries' utilisation rate: to 84pc in April-June from 79pc in the first quarter. The company's Integrated LNG business saw a 13pc year on year decline in its adjusted operating profit, to $1.15bn. TotalEnergies cited lower LNG prices and sales, and said its gas trading operation "did not fully benefit in markets characterised by lower volatility than during the first half of 2023." A bright spot was the Exploration & Production business, where adjusted operating profit rose by 14pc on the year to $2.67bn. This was mainly driven by higher oil prices, which were partially offset by lower gas realisations and production. The company's second-quarter production averaged 2.44mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), down by 1pc from 2.46mn boe/d reported for the January-March period and from the 2.47mn boe/d average in the second quarter of 2023. TotalEnergies attributed the quarter-on-quarter decline to a greater level of planned maintenance, particularly in the North Sea. But it said its underlying production — excluding the Canadian oil sands assets it sold last year — was up by 3pc on the year. This was largely thanks to the start up and ramp up of projects including Mero 2 offshore Brazil, Block 10 in Oman, Tommeliten Alpha and Eldfisk North in Norway, Akpo West in Nigeria and Absheron in Azerbaijan. TotalEnergies said production also benefited from its entry into the producing fields Ratawi, in Iraq, and Dorado in the US. The company expects production in a 2.4mn-2.45mn boe/d range in the third quarter, when its Anchor project in the US Gulf of Mexico is expected to start up. The company increased profit at its Integrated Power segment, which contains its renewables and gas-fired power operations. Adjusted operating profit rose by 12pc year-on-year to $502mn and net power production rose by 10pc to 9.1TWh. TotalEnergies' cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $7.78bn in April-June — an 8pc fall from a year earlier. The company has maintained its second interim dividend for 2024 at €0.79/share and plans to buy back up to $2bn of its shares in the third quarter, in line with its repurchases in previous quarters. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australian coal rail line to shut for 2 weeks: Coronado
Australian coal rail line to shut for 2 weeks: Coronado
Sydney, 25 July (Argus) — The Blackwater rail line in Queensland, Australia will be closed for up to two weeks because of maintenance, which will restrict coal deliveries to the key port of Gladstone. The maintenance program will run from late July to early August, coal mining firm Coronado said on 25 July. This is limiting metallurgical supply from Queensland and pushing up the price of pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal relative to Australian premium low-volatile coal, it added. The two-week shutdown was planned before Coronado released its 16.4mn-17.2mn t saleable coal guidance for 2024 , which it still expects to reach despite a week-long outage on the Blackwater line in June-July following a collision . Shippers appear prepared for the reduction in shipping from the 102mn t/yr Gladstone port over the next couple of weeks, with just 12 ships queued outside the port on 25 July, down from 23 on 6 June and below-average queues of around 20. Coal is delivered to Gladstone through the 100mn t/yr capacity Blackwater rail line and the 30mn t/yr capacity Moura line, both of which are operated by Australian rail firm Aurizon. Gladstone's shipments fell by 9.5pc in June compared with a year earlier, partly because of rail constraints. Around two-thirds of Gladstone's coal shipments are metallurgical coal and a third are thermal. A fire at UK-South African mining firm Anglo American's Grosvenor mine already hit Australian metallurgical coal exports, which led the firm to cut its 2024 production guidance to 14mn-15.5mn t from 15mn-17mn t. The premium for premium hard coal prices over PCI coal prices has shrunk to around $30/t from $145/t over the past six months. Argus last assessed the premium hard low-vol price at $224/t fob Australia on 24 July, with the PCI low-vol price at $193.65/t. Aurizon and Gladstone Port were contacted for comment, but have yet to respond at the time of writing. By Jo Clarke Australian coal price comparisons ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mercado mexicano de turbosina evalúa cambios de Pemex
Mercado mexicano de turbosina evalúa cambios de Pemex
Mexico City, 24 July (Argus) — La cadena de valor del mercado de turbosina en México podría sufrir cambios drásticos, luego de que la empresa estatal mexicana Pemex eliminara su programa de descuentos por volumen para las ventas de turbosina. Los precios de turbosina a partir del 1 de julio se determinan bajo el esquema de "precio único" anunciado por Pemex mediante un aviso oficial el 28 de junio, según una nota de Aeropuertos y Servicios Auxiliares (ASA), el mayor cliente de turbosina de Pemex y el principal proveedor de combustible de aviación en México. Pemex afirmó en su aviso del 28 de junio que el cambio tiene como objetivo mejorar su oferta para el consumidor final y proporcionar "un precio competitivo" para todos sus clientes. La empresa no ha respondido a una solicitud de comentarios de Argus desde el 12 de julio. El programa de descuentos por volumen, activo hasta junio, permitía a los grandes participantes del mercado reducir los costes de la turbosina a través de grandes volúmenes de compra. Este cambio, junto con un peso mexicano más fuerte frente al dólar estadounidense, probablemente provocó una disminución considerable de los precios de turbosina en los principales aeropuertos de México, a pesar de la subida de los precios internacionales. El precio promedio de la turbosina en los cinco principales aeropuertos de México cayó en 5pc a Ps13.23/l ($2.75/USG) durante la semana del 2 al 8 de julio, desde Ps13.87/l la semana anterior, según cálculos de Argus basados en las tarifas de ASA. Sin embargo, el 1 de julio, los precios de la turbosina entregada en la costa este de México desde la costa del Golfo de EE. UU. habían aumentado en 6pc. Los precios cayeron aún más en esos aeropuertos durante la semana del 16 al 21 de julio, alcanzando su punto más bajo en cinco semanas, con un promedio de Ps12.96/l. Los precios al mayoreo de Pemex no incluyen costes logísticos ni impuestos. Los principales aeropuertos de México por número de pasajeros son Ciudad de México, Cancún, Guadalajara, Monterrey y Tijuana. Los principales distribuidores de turbosina en los aeropuertos, incluyendo a ASA y algunas empresas del sector privado, ya no mantendrán su ventaja competitiva como grandes compradores bajo el nuevo régimen de precio único, lo que podría abrir de forma abrupta el mercado mexicano de turbosina a una mayor competencia. El nuevo régimen de precios podría favorecer a la empresa militar Gafsacomm, que comenzó a vender combustible para aviones en algunos aeropuertos menores este año. Los volúmenes de ventas de Gafsacomm no cumplían los requisitos para recibir descuentos, lo que colocó a la compañía en desventaja frente a los competidores más grandes. Gafsacomm se creó en abril de 2022 y está a cargo de la secretaría de defensa (Sedena). La empresa también opera una docena de aeropuertos y la aerolínea comercial Mexicana de Aviación, que comenzó operaciones a finales de diciembre. La creciente implicación de Sedena y la marina en el sector de aviación bajo el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador ha puesto en desventaja a otras empresas, incluidas las aerolíneas comerciales, según Cofece, el vigilante de la competencia de México. Gafsacomm comenzó a vender turbosina en el nuevo aeropuerto de Tulum este año y en el aeropuerto internacional Felipe Ángeles (AIFA) en mayo. Por el contrario, el refinador estadounidense Valero, la única empresa del sector privado que tiene un permiso válido de importación de turbosina en México, podría ampliar su negocio, ya que el nuevo esquema de precios de Pemex podría abrirle oportunidades en algunos aeropuertos. Mientras tanto, la eliminación del régimen de descuentos podría obstaculizar a las tres principales aerolíneas comerciales de México, que ya no recibirán descuentos por volumen y perderán competitividad frente a las aerolíneas regionales más pequeñas, además de las aerolíneas extranjeras. Pero el impacto en las aerolíneas podría no ser significativo, ya que algunas tienen contratos de suministro directo con Pemex, según fuentes del mercado. El gobierno tiene un monopolio sobre el mercado de turbosina de México, con Pemex suministrando gran parte del mercado. La turbosina fue el último de los productos petrolíferos en abrirse a una mayor competencia en México después de los cambios constitucionales en 2014, pero el progreso de la reforma se detuvo bajo la administración de López Obrador, que ha impulsado una política de soberanía energética. Por Antonio Gozain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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