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Oleochemical, palm importers confused on deforestation

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals
  • 21/04/23

European oleochemical and palm oil importers are struggling to understand the ramifications of the new EU deforestation regulation (EUDR), and sources told Argus there are details that need to be clarified.

The EUDR, approved by the European Parliament on 20 April, surprised and raised concerns that it could limit key feedstocks for oleochemicals production, and palm oil and derivatives imports to Europe. Around 64pc of these are from Malaysia and Indonesia, two of the worst positioned countries on traceability, according to sources.

"I'm in shock," a glycerine producer said after finding that glycerine with over 95pc purity was among the products affected by the regulation. "Considering the information in the new regulation, I really cannot understand what information we would need to submit."

The regulation requires mandatory due diligence from operators and traders selling and importing palm oil and derivatives, including glycerine with over 95pc purity, oleic, stearic and palmitic fatty acids and industrial fatty alcohols. Firms must ensure products sold in the EU have not caused deforestation or forest degradation, with penalties for non-compliance including a maximum fine of at least 4pc of annual EU turnover.

A palm oil importer said some of the products included in the regulation were surprising and clarification was needed.

"Palm oil needs to be compliant with the regulation of each country in Europe, and there are other things that need to be clarified, as traceability from smallholders, that are defined in Europe as four hectares, while Indonesia defines them as 10 hectares," the importer told Argus. Smallholders account for more than 40pc of palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia.

The European Oleochemicals and Allied Products Group (APAG) and the European Committee of Organic Surfactants and their intermediates (Cesio) said they support addressing climate change and the regulatory intervention at the EU level, but voiced concern.

"The provision to supply geolocation co-ordinates back to plot-of-land creates a barrier in including smallholders in the EU palm oil supply chain," they said in a joint statement. "Smallholders represent 40pc of the palm oil production in southeast Asia and are therefore a crucial player in the palm oil value chain."

They said excluding smallholders from the EU supply chain "would shift palm oil and other commodities to countries with weaker environmental regulations, resulting in shifting deforestation to other regions." A importer pointed to "a lack of formality in land ownership in Malaysia and Indonesia, and smallholders feed to a central processing plant, which leads to a lack of traceability."

Following approval by EU ministers, entry into force will see all countries assigned a "standard" risk level. The European Commission will then benchmark countries within 18 months. The law says 9pc of operators and traders will be subject to checks if importing products from "high-risk" countries.

The legislation takes into account deforestation since 31 December 2020.

"The issue is that traceability is going to be a trouble for smallholders because of informal land ownership," the importer said.

The industry associations said that together with other sectors they have supported development of guidelines to ensure proper traceability, and they are keen on working with the commission to develop the documents.

"One size does not fit all," they said. "Palm and palm kernel oils are liquid goods unlike wood, coffee and cocoa beans, making traceability requirements more complex.

"Traceability to palm oil mills, complemented by relevant due diligence, is currently the most effective tool in place to secure a sustainable supply-chain, inclusive of all players," they said.

Eurostat data show that in 2022-23, as of 20 March, the five biggest palm oil exporters into the EU were Indonesia with more than 42pc, Malaysia with around 22pc, Guatemala with almost 14pc, Honduras with almost 7pc and Papua New Guinea with around 6pc. The importer said Guatemala is the best positioned on traceability at this point, and Malaysia, Indonesia, Colombia and Honduras are the most affected.


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27/12/24

Viewpoint: Consolidation looms in US methanol

Viewpoint: Consolidation looms in US methanol

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — The sale of Netherlands-based OCI's methanol production assets to rival producer Methanex is set to shift the market, with US methanol production most affected by the move. Methanex in the third quarter of 2024 announced the $2bn acquisition, which is expected to close in the first half of 2025. The boards of directors of both companies and OCI's shareholders approved the transaction, but it is subject to regulatory approvals. OCI operates the 1mn t/yr OCI Beaumont plant and is a 50:50 partner in Natgasoline, a 1.7mn t/yr joint-venture plant between OCI and Proman. Methanex operates three plants in the US, all in Geismar, Louisiana. These plants carry a collective 4mn t/yr capacity and represent one-third of total US methanol capacity. At front and center of the acquisition is the Natgasoline plant in Beaumont. Natgasoline, when operational, represents 14pc of domestic production. The plant opened in 2018, and throughout those six years, the plant has seen its share of operational issues. The most recent was a fire at the reformer unit in early October, resulting in a complete shutdown lasting nearly three months. When the deal was announced, Methanex made it clear that the transaction was subject to approvals by OCI shareholders, as well as a pending legal decision between OCI and Proman. "If it is not settled within a certain period, Methanex has the option to carve out the purchase of the Natgasoline joint venture and close only on the remainder of the transaction," the company said in September. Methanex and OCI declined to give further details, as the deal is still pending. Proman did not respond to a request for comment. If it goes through, the acquisition would result in the exodus of OCI from the US methanol market. But the issue of liquidity in the US spot barge market is also looming. Market participants said OCI is a frequent buyer when the Natgasoline plant goes down. In October, when Natgasoline was completely shut down, 340,000 bl of methanol moved for delivery at ITC, the terminal on the Houston Ship Channel where methanol is exchanged, according to Argus data. Market participants expect liquidity to be about the same until some time after the deal closes. When a plant goes down, a producer will emerge in the spot market for purchases. In the longer term, there are some questions around international distribution and where US methanol exports find a home. Methanex is a major exporter to Asia, whereas OCI sells into the European market. The low-carbon methanol sector will also experience some shakeup. OCI is a major participant in the bio-methanol space, selling volume into Europe. Methanex produces carbon-captured methanol, also known as blue methanol, which has not penetrated the EU market. By Steven McGinn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Brazil urea deals for corn delayed to 2025


27/12/24
News
27/12/24

Viewpoint: Brazil urea deals for corn delayed to 2025

Sao Paulo, 27 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to enter 2025 with a last-minute surge in demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, as farmers continue to postpone purchases for the 2024-25 second corn crop. Around 10-15pc of all fertilizer needs have yet to be purchased for the corn crop, whose planting is expected to start by February in central-western Mato Grosso state. Brazilian farmers have been delaying agreements for inputs as they wait for lower fertilizer prices and higher grain prices. The most delayed fertilizer acquisition is urea, with buyers expecting further price drops before committing to volumes. Granular urea prices were at $359/metric tonnes (t) cfr Brazil by 19 December, $39/t above the same period in 2023. The overall pace of input purchases is in line with farmers' buying patterns for the 2023-24 corn crop and 2024-25 soybean crop, when growers also waited until the last minute to secure final volumes. Traditional 4Q buying surged delayed Brazilian buyers used to speed up the pace of fertilizer purchases in the fourth quarter to supply the second corn crop. This would give them time to receive the inputs in time for application, without last-minute logistic concerns. But unexpected changes in fertilizer price trends, combined with changes in the timing of the soybean crop, led farmers to change this buying pattern and wait as long as possible before concluding deals. Farmers' saw this last-minute buying strategy rewarded in early 2024 when urea prices were about $393/t cfr Brazil, below levels seen earlier in October 2023. And a delay in the 2024-25 soybean planting because of unfavorable weather conditions also contributed to postponed fertilizer acquisitions for corn, since the soybean harvest would likely be delayed and force farmers to plant corn outside the ideal period. Those factors are set to again push final urea purchases to January. Some volumes traded in November-December may discharge in ports in January, intensifying deliveries in the first months of the year. Brazil imported 7.6mn t of urea in January-November, 19pc above the same period in 2023. The latest lineup data from 26 December points to around 400,000t to be delivered at ports in December and 422,000t in January, according to maritime agency Unimar. Farmers focused on acquiring ammonium sulphate (amsul) volumes in the past three months, as prices carried a discount considering the nitrogen content compared with urea while also adding sulphur. There is plenty of available compacted/granular amsul, with Chinese producers eyeing Brazil as an outlet for the product. Imports of amsul totaled 5.1mn t in the first 11 months of the year, 18pc above the same period last year. A total of 596,000t and 1.2mn t were set to discharge in ports in December and January, respectively, according to Unimar's lineup data from 26 December. The trend is the same in the domestic market, with purchases advancing slowly. Some cooperatives and retailers bought volumes to guarantee availability when farmers decide to buy. Farmers are most advanced in theirs potash (MOP) acquisitions, as its lower-than-usual price has motivated farmers to buy the fertilizer for 2025-26 corn and soybeans. Market participants estimate that around 50pc of MOP needs in Mato Grosso for the 2025-26 soybean crop were purchased by early December. Demand has been high for the first quarter of 2025, leading to expectations of intense MOP deliveries at ports. This would mean a high flow in the inland market, competing with urea volumes handling in January-February. By Gisele Augusto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: SE Asian IMO2 MRs to rise on EU policy


27/12/24
News
27/12/24

Viewpoint: SE Asian IMO2 MRs to rise on EU policy

London, 27 December (Argus) — Rates for specialised Medium Range (MR) tankers in southeast Asia will be driven up in 2025 by changes in EU policy on deforestation, higher biofuels blending mandates, and new mandates in the aviation sector, all of which will support exports of biodiesels, feedstocks and palm oil. Demand for specialised MRs in southeast Asia is ruled by exports of palm oil to Europe and the US Gulf coast. Palm oil does not usually need to travel on IMO2 ships and can be moved on IMO3 vessels. But it is often moved as a part-cargo of between 5,000-15,000t so is often picked up by IMO2 or IMO2/3 vessels, which are more suitable as they have a higher number of segregated tanks. Kpler data show around 6.3mn t of palm oil was exported from Indonesia and Malaysia to the US Gulf and Europe in the January-November 2024 period. Palm oil deliveries from southeast Asia have been trending lower since 2020 with the product becoming less popular in Europe because of deforestation issues. On 4 December, an agreement was reached between the European Council and the European Parliament to delay the application of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by one year. This means larger companies will not be required to prove that their products, such as palm oil, did not contribute to deforestation until 30 December 2025. This has averted a potential rapid loss in palm oil exports to Europe in 2025 but there will probably be a substantial decline in exports later in the year as businesses prepare for the EUDR. In the short term, the decision to postpone the EUDR will probably boost cargo numbers heading to Europe as traders had been holding off for clear regulatory guidance. This will support freight rates for IMO2 MRs in the new year by pulling more IMO2/3s and IMO3s away from the market and by increasing the number of part cargoes available for IMO2s. Feedstock exports ramp up Indonesia and Malaysia also export many specialised products that require IMO2s, such as waste based feedstocks palm oil mill effluent (POME), palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) and used cooking oil (UCO), as well as finished biodiesels like Ucome. Kpler puts exports of these products to Europe at around 2.8mn t in the first 11 months of 2024, with POME cargoes making up 42pc of all shipments or around 1.2mn t. POME was included in Annex IX Part A of the EU's renewable energy directive (RED), meaning member states can count it twice towards their renewable energy goals. Exports of feedstocks and biodiesels to Europe will probably rise in 2025 as blending mandates rise and because of a reduction in the carryover of emissions tickets in Germany and the Netherlands. Argus estimates European demand for biodiesel Pomeme to rise by around 36pc on the quarter in first three months of 2025 to around 3.5mn litres. Higher requirements for biofuels and feedstocks in Europe should push up demand for products like POME, PFAD, and UCO from Malaysia and Indonesia and support higher IMO2 demand in southeast Asia. But this could be tempered by an Indonesian ruling to include an export permit for POME and PFAD that requires participants to fulfil their cooking oil domestic market obligation. SAF mandates begin in Europe Exports of HVO and SAF from Singapore to Europe also make up part-cargo demand for IMO2 MRs. Argus forecasts European HVO demand will rise by 85pc on the quarter to 2,582mn l in the first three months of 2025. New 2pc SAF mandates in the EU and UK in 2025 will provide a sizable rise in SAF demand. This should spur a jump in cargoes loading from Singapore — driving up demand for part-cargo space on IMO2 MRs. By Leonard Fisher-Matthews Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Policy doubts hit Australia's biofuel sector


27/12/24
News
27/12/24

Viewpoint: Policy doubts hit Australia's biofuel sector

Sydney, 27 December (Argus) — Australia's biofuels sector has garnered significant interest during the first 2½ years of the current federal Labor government, but uncertainty over key policy support measures has stymied investment and led developers to question whether 2025 will be a year of reform. Labor secured its first majority government since 2007 in the mid-2022 election and subsequently pledged to cut Australia's greenhouse gas emissions by 43pc on 2005 levels by 2030. But the country is not on track to meet this ambitious target because of slow progress decarbonising its electricity and transport sectors. Biofuels have become increasingly popular, given decarbonising hard-to-abate transport industries is seen as key to reaching the 2030 goal. Canberra has committed to a low carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) standard, which the industry views as crucial to enabling investment in processing, refineries and new feedstock crops. In its May 2024 budget, the federal government expressed a desire to develop sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel (HVO) industries. The outcomes of consultations are expected to be released imminently. On the demand side, a regulatory impact analysis of the costs and benefits associated with mandates for LCLF has been promised, but no timeframe has been released. Domestic refiners Ampol and Viva, as well as BP at its former Kwinana refinery, have expressed interest in biofuel production but all require certainty on demand and supply-side support mechanisms. Australian bioenergy developer Jet Zero and a consortium including major airlines aim to build a 113mn litres/yr plant in the northern part of Queensland state, but initial engineering for the concept has not yet been completed. The consortium plans to convert bioethanol from domestic agricultural byproducts like sugarcane molasses into SAF and HVO through the alcohol-to-jet pathway, with production expected to start in 2027. Jet Zero is also planning to produce SAF through the Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) production pathway in a 50:50 joint venture with Aperion Bioenergy. But the project, which is still in its feasibility stage, is facing hurdles in pricing the feedstock offtake agreements or term contracts. Complicating the picture, heavy transport is now showing greater signs of electrification, as demonstrated by iron ore producer Fortescue's major order for new electric haul trucks. Regardless, the introduction of new safeguard mechanism laws requiring large emitters to reduce pollution has led Australia's fuel companies to increase HVO sales, with 500,000l contracts now signed on a regular basis despite the higher costs. Australian coal mining firm Stanmore has tested a 20pc HVO blend at its Bowen basin Poitrel mine, demonstrating an increasing acceptance of biofuels by customers. Ampol and Viva both sell fatty acid methyl esters (Fame) based biofuel blends at 5pc, 10pc and 20pc. Ampol has two projects in the pipeline: a co-processing facility that would supply up to 60mn l/yr by 2026 and the Brisbane renewable fuels joint venture, which would be a larger project of 0.5bn-1bn l/yr and is due for a final investment decision by late 2025. Viva has been less forthcoming about its plans for biofuel production since it announced a new biofuel blending venture at its 120,000 b/d Geelong refinery in 2023. There will be a federal election no later than mid-May 2025 and both major parties are keen to enhance their green image while supporting regional communities and manufacturing jobs. New regulatory support is crucial if Australia is to transition from supplying significant quantities of feedstock for biofuels to other countries, particularly tallow and canola seed, to producing its own renewable fuels. Australia's increasing reliance on imported oil products and foreign crude, along with a worsening geopolitical backdrop, has started to raise concerns in Canberra. This could be the deciding factor in whether the government will create the required regulatory environment for a local biofuels industry to thrive. By Tom Major and Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025

London, 24 December (Argus) — European ethanol producers may face rising output costs in 2025 as a poorer harvest season will push feedstock prices up, while other factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values could affect the price of finished products. Unfavourable weather conditions have led to a poor 2024-25 harvest, particularly for wheat. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. And rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This will likely weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. Nuts 2 It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values — the so called Nuts 2 values. To determine the GHG emissions from growing crops in the EU, the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) allows the use of typical units that represent the average GHG value in a specific area. On the back of the implementation of the recast of RED (RED II), the European Commission requested an update of the Nuts 2 GHG values. Member states have to prepare new crop reports to be assessed by the commission. But reports have been slow to emerge, while those that have been submitted face a lengthy review. Producers rely on GHG values to calculate the GHG savings of end-products, but default RED values currently in place are significantly lower than the typical GHG values from Nuts 2. While this is unlikely to have long-term effects beyond 2025, in the current context finding values that meet market participants' criteria has been difficult for some, which may support prices. Rising demand Demand for waste-based and ethanol with higher GHG savings should increase in 2025 as a result of policy changes, after lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets kept buying interest in check in 2024. Tickets are generated by companies supplying biofuels for transport. They are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet renewables mandates. The decline in prices for GHG tickets in Germany — the main demand centre for minimum 90pc GHG savings ethanol — weighed on ethanol consumption in 2024, squeezing the differential to product with lower GHG savings. The premium averaged around €17/m³ ($17.7/m³) from 1 January-1 December 2024, down from around €43/m³ during the same period in 2023. But an increase in Germany's GHG quota in 2025, coupled with Germany's decision to pause the use of GHG certificates carried forward from previous compliance years towards the 2025 and 2026 blending mandate, should increase physical blending and lift premiums for ethanol with high GHG savings, according to market participants. Meanwhile, the Netherlands' ministry of infrastructure and water management's plan to reduce the amount of Dutch tickets that obligated companies will be able to carry forward to 2025 to 10pc from 25pc may have little effect on Dutch double-counting ethanol premiums in 2025. Participants expect steady premiums, despite slightly higher overall blending targets. The Argus double-counting ethanol fob ARA premium to crop-based ethanol fob ARA averaged €193/m³ from 1 February-1 December 2024. Biomethanol slows Lower ticket prices in the UK have kept a lid on demand for alternative waste-based gasoline blendstock biomethanol. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price averaged $1,089/t from 1 Jauary-1 December, compared with $1,229/t during the same period of 2023. The European Commission's proposal to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels, if relying on gas that has been transported through grids outside the EU, continues to slow negotiations for 2025 imports of biomethanol of US origin into the EU. But demand for biomethanol and e-methanol could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector as shipowners seek to reduce emissions after the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation comes into effect. Shipping giant Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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