Global soybean production, imports, exports, crush, ending stocks and yield are forecast at record levels for the 2023-24 marketing year according to the May World Agriculture Demand and Supply Estimates report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Global soybean production will jump by 10.8pc to 410bn t for 2023-24 compared with 370bn t for the prior year on improved weather conditions in Argentina, and expanded acres in Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and the US. These five producers represent 84pc of 2023-24 global soybean production.
With global weather patterns switching from La Nina to El Nino, Argentina's soybean crop is estimated to recover to 48mn t for 2023-24 compared with 27mn t for 2022-23. Brazil is forecast to increase soybean harvested hectares to 45.6mn ha and production to 163mn t for 2023-24 versus last year's 43.7mn ha and 155mn t.
US production is anticipated to increase to 122.7mn t for 2023-24 from 116mn t last year. And Uruguay and Paraguay production is forecast at 2.9mn t and 10mn t respectively for 2023-24 compared with 1.2mn t and 8.8mn t, respectively, for 2022-23.
The increased production from the five largest producers translates into increased exports. Brazilian exports for 2023-24 are forecast to increase to 96.5mn t from prior year's 93mn t. Similarly, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are anticipated to have exports for 2023-24 of 4.6mn t, 5.9mn t and 2.4mn t, respectively, compared with 3.3mn t, 5.7mn t and 1.1mn t respectively. Conversely, US soybean exports are forecast to decrease for 2023-24 to 53.7mn t from 54.8mn t mainly because of increased demand for crush for US biofuels.
China's projected 100mn t of soybean imports for 2023-24 would be a record high with demand driven by recovering crush of 95mn t for 2023-24 compared with 91mn t the prior year.
Argentina is anticipated to decrease imports as production will recover for 2023-24. Argentinian imports are forecast at 5.7mn t for 2023-24 compared with 8.3mn t and crush will recover to 36.5mn t for 2023-24 versus 31.5mn t for 2022-23.
Egypt and Pakistan will also have increased import demand for soybeans for 2023-24, with Egypt anticipated to import 3.5mn t compared with last year at 2.5mn t, mainly driven by improved economic stability. And Pakistan is forecast to import 2.35mn t for 2023-24 compared with last year at 1mn t, driven by reduced trade barriers.
The USDA also had some notable revisions for 2022-23 soybean estimates. Brazilian soybean production was revised up by 1mn t to 155mn t for the May report as compared to 154mn t in last month's report. China's beginning stocks were revised down by 1mn t and imports were subsequently revised upwards by 2mn t on strong demand for Brazilian supplies.
With a negative economic outlook, Egypt's imports for 2022-23 were cut to 2.5mn t for the May report compared with 3.8mn t for last month's report. And exports for 2022-23 for Paraguay were lowered 700mn t to 5.7mn t, on a 1.2mn decrease in production to 8.8mn t for the May report.