Liquidity in Eurobob non-oxy gasoline instruments listed by the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) has deepened this month, with the European market moving steadily towards higher-ethanol product at the pump.
A 30,000t spread trade for Argus Eurobob non-oxy vs Argus Eurobob oxy occurred on 12 June, following a 15,000t trade on 9 June and a 25,000t lot a day earlier, to raise open interest outstanding on this contract by more than 40pc to 231,000t. Also on 8 June a 25,000t block trade was registered with Ice for the July 2023 Argus Eurobob non-oxy futures contract, taking open interest up by more than 60pc to 66,000t.
Eurobob non-oxy is an unfinished gasoline blendstock, which following the addition of up to 10pc ethanol meets the E10 pump specification. Benchmark Eurobob oxy is the unfinished blendstock for E5 fuel, which has a 5pc ethanol content. The former's share of the European gasoline market is growing, because its higher bioethanol content helps meet increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cut quotas. Argus estimates E10 demand now accounts for around 50pc of overall European gasoline consumption.
Trade in the physical Eurobob gasoline barge market has begun to reflect this, and a monthly record of Eurobob non-oxy traded in May. Non-oxy trade accounted for 50pc of the total in the 12 months up to and including May 2023, double that of the previous year.
In response to shifting physical trade Argus will, from January 2024, move its Eurobob oxy assessment away from being assessed as a volume weighted average of trade to being assessed as a differential to the Eurobob non-oxy price. But the shift has been slower in paper markets — open interest on Argus Eurobob oxy futures contracts listed by Ice still far outweigh that of non-oxy, with more than 10mn t of outstanding open interest on the outright-value Ice futures contract alone.
Market participants expect this balance to change substantively in the months ahead, as the transition in physical markets continues to gather pace.
In addition to Ice, the CME also lists a range of futures contracts listing both Argus oxy and non-oxy futures.