Election revives doubts on US foreign policy direction
The spectacle of US Republican hopefuls holding their first major debate of the 2024 presidential race last month has highlighted the possibility of another abrupt change in Washington's geopolitical priorities after January 2025, with potentially huge implications for US sanctions and energy transition policies.
The eight Republican candidates brandished their opposition to President Joe Biden on energy and other domestic and foreign policy issues, while their biggest antagonist — former president Donald Trump — skipped the debate. Trump leads his rivals in the polls, and only Florida governor Ron DeSantis has managed to break away from the pack so far. A Quinnipiac University poll carried out in mid-August had Trump as the leading candidate among Republican voters, with 57pc, with DeSantis trailing at 18pc and no other candidate breaking above 10pc.
The Republican field appears split on the geopolitical issue of the moment — Russia's invasion of Ukraine — as many of Trump's rivals appeared to be more aligned with Biden than their own party leader. US entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who is moulding his campaign in Trump's style, said "Ukraine is not a priority for the US", while DeSantis said he would not support additional military and economic aid for Ukraine because "Europe needs to do more".
Trump, in a parallel interview meant to overshadow his rivals' debate, said that Biden should "be getting us out of that horrible, horrible war that we're very much involved in with Russia and Ukraine". Trump said that "the war can be stopped very easily", having previously promised to end the conflict through a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Other candidates, including former vice-president Mike Pence and former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, are more supportive of Ukraine. But that position does not resonate with Republican voters — 59pc of those polled by Quinnipiac University said the US is doing too much to help Ukraine. The far-right members of the House of Representatives who are aligned with Trump have already expressed opposition to Biden's request earlier this summer for $40bn in additional funding largely for military and financial aid to Ukraine.
Running out the clock
Biden's presidential campaign highlighted Trump's statements to cast the former president as being an ally of Putin. The White House, which is not allowed to comment on the current campaign, says it will continue providing aid to Ukraine to enable its battlefield successes. But administration officials concede that the US electoral calendar is a factor in the war's progress. "The biggest impediment right now to finding peace... is President Putin's conviction that he can outlast Ukraine and he can outlast all of us," US secretary of state Tony Blinken says.
The Republican hopefuls promised to take an even tougher stance against China, and claimed Biden is putting the US at an economic disadvantage with his climate policies. "The climate change agenda is a hoax," Ramaswamy said. Haley stood out for expressing a belief that climate change is real, but said the US needs to "take on" India and China to cut their emissions, rather than pursuing subsidies for electric vehicles — a reference to the Inflation Reduction Act. "These green subsidies that Biden has put in — all he has done is help China," Haley said. "Half of the batteries for electric vehicles are made in China."
The Republican field is likely to revive the drama of Trump's presidency in political relations with allies and the rest of the world. The hopefuls on the debate stage vowed to send US troops to Mexico to address drug trafficking and migration. And Trump has vowed to impose high tariffs on US imports from all countries to reduce the trade deficit.
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Egypt’s Egas seeks LNG over October-December
Egypt’s Egas seeks LNG over October-December
Singapore, 6 September (Argus) — Egypt's state-owned gas firm Egas is seeking 20 spot LNG cargoes for delivery over October-December through a tender that will close on 12 September. The firm is seeking 17 deliveries to Ain Sukhna, and three deliveries to Jordan's 3.8mn t/yr Aqaba import terminal, through a tender that closes on 12 September. This tender may create additional competition for spot LNG for European buyers. News of the tender may have contributed to a rise in European gas prices, with the front-month contract at the Dutch TTF trading at over €37.50/MWh in the morning, against an Argus assessment of €36.13/MWh on Thursday. But the TTF lost most of its gains later in the day. Egas was last in the market to seek up to five cargoes for delivery over August-September , through a tender that closed on 29 July. This tender was likely to have been fully awarded at an average of a $1.50/mn Btu premium to the TTF, possibly to TotalEnergies, Gunvor and BP, traders said. Traders in mid-August estimated that Egypt would seek about eight to 15 spot cargoes for winter. Its latest requirement for 20 cargoes may indicate that the country's demand for imports is leaning towards the higher end. At the same time Egas executive managing director Magdy Galal had told Argus this February that Egypt would be able to export in winter 2024-25, "as usual". Europe was the main destination for Egyptian LNG exports in recent years. Egypt shipped 84 cargoes to Europe in the past two years, while only 35 vessels were exported elsewhere. Croatia, Greece, Italy, Poland, France, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK were among the recipients of Egyptian cargoes. Egypt last exported LNG in April, when it delivered 209mn m³ of equivalent pipeline gas, data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi) show. But Egypt's appetite for spot cargoes is likely to remain, particularly as domestic gas production in the country has been falling. Gas production in Egypt fell to its lowest for seven years in June , the latest Jodi data show. At the same time, its pipeline gas deliveries from Israel have been hit with uncertainty since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Pipeline deliveries from Israel to Egypt fell to 731mn m³ in June from 851mn m³ in May, having reached record highs earlier this year. LNG exports from Egypt this winter are "not very likely" , Italy's Eni said on 26 July. By Rou Urn Lee and Alexandra Vladimirova Egas tender delivery windows Delivery to Ain Sukhna, Egypt Delivery to Aqaba, Jordan 4-5 October 2024 16-17 October 2024 9-10 October 2024 21-22 November 2024 14-15 October 2024 23-24 December 2024 19-20 October 2024 24-25 October 2024 29-30 October 2024 8-9 November 2024 13-14 November 2024 18-19 November 2024 23-24 November 2024 28-29 November 2024 3-4 December 2024 9-10 December 2024 15-16 December 2024 21-22 December 2024 27-28 December 2024 31 December 2024 - 1 Jan 2025 Source: Egas Egas tender delivery windows Delivery to Ain Sukhna, Egypt Delivery to Aqaba, Jordan 4-5 Oct 2024 16-17 Oct 2024 9-10 Oct 2024 21-22 Nov 2024 14-15 Oct 2024 23-24 Dec 2024 19-20 Oct 2024 24-25 Oct 2024 29-30 Oct 2024 8-9 Nov 2024 13-14 Nov 2024 18-19 Nov 2024 23-24 Nov 2024 28-29 Nov 2024 3-4 Dec 2024 9-10 Dec 2024 15-16 Dec 2024 21-22 Dec 2024 27-28 Dec 2024 31 Dec 2024 - 1 Jan 2025 — Egas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Canada’s west coast crude exports up ten-fold on TMX
Calgary, 6 September (Argus) — Crude exports from Canada's west coast rose sharply in June as shippers were eager to take advantage of enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets, according to Trans Mountain Corporation (TMC). The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline nearly tripled the capacity of the original 300,000 b/d system connecting oil-rich Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia, with new volumes reaching the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) midway through May. Throughputs made a step change in June, the first full month of service, highlighting the pent-up demand among shippers who had waited years for the expansion to be built. Volumes on the Trans Mountain Mainline averaged 704,000 b/d in June, up from 412,000 b/d in May and 300,000 b/d in April, TMC said in its quarterly update. Of those flows, more than half went to the WMT for export in June at 361,000 b/d, ten times the 36,000 b/d sent to the terminal in April. The WMT handled 76,000 b/d of volume in May. Levels at the WMT have held steady in July and August above 350,000 b/d, according to more recent data from Kpler. Most of the volume has gone to China and the US west coast, but cargoes have also been aimed at new markets like Brunei this week . On a quarterly basis, the Mainline handled 471,000 b/d from April-June, up from 349,000 b/d from a year earlier. The WMT handled 157,000 b/d in the second quarter, up from 39,000 b/d across the same period. The Trans Mountain system also has a terminal at the Canada-US border near Sumas, Washington, that diverts crude to refineries in Washington state via the company's 111 kilometre (69 mile) Puget Sound Pipeline. Movements on Puget Sound rose to 246,000 b/d in June, up from 241,000 b/d in May and 199,000 b/d in April. Across the quarter, Puget Sound moved 229,000 b/d, up from 233,000 b/d in the same quarter 2023. Carrying costs for the highly-leveraged C$34bn ($25bn) TMX project weighed on the company's earnings despite an increase in toll-related revenues. Trans Mountain ended the second quarter with C$26.2bn of total debt, up from C$20.1bn a year earlier. Trans Mountain posted a loss of C$48mn in the second quarter, down from a C$172mn profit during the same quarter of 2023. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Egypt’s Egas seeks LNG over October-December
Egypt’s Egas seeks LNG over October-December
Singapore, 6 September (Argus) — Egypt's state-owned gas firm Egas is seeking 20 spot cargoes for delivery over October-December through a tender that will close on 12 September. The firm is seeking 17 deliveries to Ain Sukhna, and three deliveries to Jordan's 3.8mn t/yr Aqaba import terminal. Egas was last in the market to seek up to five cargoes for delivery over August-September , through a tender that closed on 29 July. This tender was likely fully awarded at an average of a $1.50/mn Btu premium to the Dutch TTF, possibly to TotalEnergies, Gunvor and BP, traders said. Traders in mid-August estimated that Egypt would seek about eight to 15 spot cargoes for winter. Its latest requirement for 20 cargoes may indicate that the country's demand for imports is leaning towards the higher end. Egypt's appetite for spot cargoes is likely to remain, particularly as domestic gas production in the country has been falling. Gas production in Egypt fell to its lowest for seven years in June , the country's latest submission to the Joint Organisation Data Initiative (Jodi) show. At the same time, its pipeline gas deliveries from Israel have been hit with uncertainty since the start of the Israel-Gaza conflict. Pipeline deliveries from Israel to Egypt fell to 731mn m³ in June from 851mn m³ in May, having reached record highs earlier this year. LNG exports from Egypt this winter are "not very likely" , Italy's Eni said back on 26 July. By Rou Urn Lee Egas tender delivery windows Delivery to Ain Sukhna, Egypt Delivery to Aqaba, Jordan 4-5 October 2024 16-17 October 2024 9-10 October 2024 21-22 November 2024 14-15 October 2024 23-24 December 2024 19-20 October 2024 24-25 October 2024 29-30 October 2024 8-9 November 2024 13-14 November 2024 18-19 November 2024 23-24 November 2024 28-29 November 2024 3-4 December 2024 9-10 December 2024 15-16 December 2024 21-22 December 2024 27-28 December 2024 31 December 2024 - 1 Jan 2025 Source: Egas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Pemex unbilled debts to suppliers climb
Mexico City, 5 September (Argus) — Service providers for Mexico's Pemex are unable to submit new invoices for services performed nearly a year ago even as the state-owned company also struggles to pay down past bills, sources say. These unsubmitted invoices do not appear in Pemex's financial records or in its monthly supplier debt reports, three Pemex suppliers who work mostly in the northern region of the Gulf of Mexico told Argus . Pemex provides vendors a system to submit bills for review and processing, leading to an invoice codifying payments and discounts (Copades). At this stage, Pemex certifies the pending invoice, making it part of the company's monthly supplier report —a transparency measure implemented in 2021. Pemex reduced its overdue debts to service providers by 6pc from May-July, with Ps126.4bn ($6.78bn) in unpaid invoices as of 31 July, down from Ps133.9bn in May. But a significant amount of unbilled work remains because Pemex has not issued the necessary Copades for vendors to begin the payment process, and some of the bills date back to work performed in September, according to two of the vendors. Without the Copades, companies must classify these debts as uncollectible, one vendor said. The issue is concentrated in Mexico's northeast maritime region, where Pemex produces about half of its crude and gas output, according to the vendors. This region includes the Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zap fields. Pemex has requested vendors to perform tasks in the area, but the company then claims there is no budget allocated for those bills, the vendors said. This unbilled work adds to Pemex's recognized debt to suppliers, but the size of this unrecognized debt is impossible to estimate, the vendors added. Pemex's unpaid invoices and short-term vendor debts stand at record-high levels, despite receiving over $70bn in government support since 2019. By Edgar Sigler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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