Steeply rising orders and build rates in the commercial aerospace sector, alongside record military spending, will drive up titanium demand in the coming decade, although supply constraints will persist in the near term, delegates heard yesterday at the International Titanium Association conference in Denver.
"The industry is anticipating some very aggressive build rates for the foreseeable future that are expected to be somewhat tempered by supply chain constraints" — labour productivity and availability — the vice-president of technology at US-based Timet, Stephen Fox, said.
This outlook was echoed by numerous other attendees, with titanium demand widely expected to outpace availability as the industry emerges from the shadow of Covid-19.
"We have seen quite a few missteps at OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] and some of the key tier 1 [suppliers] and that can create some temporary fluctuations, but generally the demand signal on the titanium supply side is not impacted strongly by these," Fox said. "And that in part is because we are struggling to maintain the [supply] growth necessary to meet those needs."
Preference for single-aisle driving and limiting demand
Major aerospace manufacturers Boeing and Airbus continue to ramp up aircraft deliveries after three years of heavily constrained operations. But a growing preference for single-aisle over twin-aisle planes is reshaping the typical titanium requirements per airframe.
Airbus delivered 433 aircraft in January-August this year, while Boeing delivered 344 — 13pc and 24pc gains on the year, respectively. At the same time, the overall order backlog continues to swell, standing at 13,547 aircraft mid-year, up by 7.5pc compared with mid-2022.
"With a combination of strong order books and gradual resolution of these supply chain issues, we do anticipate deliveries reaching record highs above 2018 levels by 2025, perhaps 2026 if the constraints persist a little bit longer," Fox said.
Bu the amount of titanium needed to deliver so many aircraft is declining, owing to lower usage in single-aisle airframes compared with twin-aisles. Historically, each aircraft contains on average 30t of titanium, although this can range from 10-15t in an A320 or 737 to as much as 40t in an A350 or 787. With demand for single-aisle aircraft now at record highs, these long-standing norms may be subject to adjustment. Moving forward, the delivery mix is expected to hold steady at an 80:20 balance, where single-aisles make up the majority.
The narrowbody to widebody ratio will also feed into varied growth rates on engine programmes, the vice-president of global commercial strategy at US-based ATI Materials, Martin Pike, said. Titanium alloys are mainly used for the fan and compressor in the fore-half section where temperatures are relatively low, as well as surrounding structures. Widebody engines require around five times as much material compared with their narrowbody counterparts, Pike said.
Narrowbody engines will see a combined growth of 44pc in the next three years, while widebody engine demand is expected to grow by 27pc in the next three years. The entire engine fleet — including new builds and in-service engines nearing the end of their life — is projected to grow by 35pc from 66,333 engines currently to 89,549 engines by 2032, according to ATI, representing a compound annual growth rate of 7.7pc over the next five years.
Premium and standard quality titanium will be required to meet this build rate, and to serve MRO schedules on in-service legacy engines and for current generation engines that will enter the service cycle in 2024-25.
Titanium usage holds firm in defence sector
Military expenditure hit a record high of $2.24 trillion in 2022, up by 3.7pc in real terms, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). The US, Russia and China accounted for 56pc of that, while the steepest year-on-year increase came from Europe.
"While the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 certainly affected military spending decisions in 2022, concerns about Russian aggression have been building for much longer," Lorenzo Scarazzato, Sipri researcher at its military expenditure and arms production programme, said earlier this year. "Many former eastern bloc states have more than doubled their military spending since 2014... when Russia annexed Crimea."
Present geopolitical fractures aside, countries such as the US and China are also investing in next-generation technologies, where there are opportunities for titanium in proprietary high-temperature titanium alloys, among other developments.
Across commercial and defence programmes, current-generation aircraft structures require significantly more titanium than their predecessors to meet requirements for light-weighting and to withstand higher temperatures generated by modern fuel-efficient engines.
The titanium content by weight in an F-22 amounts to 39pc, while the V-22 and F-35 sit slightly lower at 31pc and 20pc, respectively. Prior generations such as the F-17, Typhoon or F-18 weigh in at 7-12pc, according to UK-based Howmet Aerospace.
"Both the current and the next-generation platforms that are being developed need significant titanium content," the vice-president of technology and quality at Howmet, Markus Heinimann, said. "Product and process innovations… are going to continue to drive the adoption and growth of titanium by providing improved performance and lower costs."
