World leaders attending the upcoming UN climate talks in Dubai should considering calling for a global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions goal and a phase-out of fossil fuels to help achieve the goals of the Paris climate agreement, a new report by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recommends.
The report, released today, summarizes the views of UNFCCC parties and other groups on the progress made to date toward the Paris goals and the future steps needed. It also proposed potential language to include in a decision at the conclusion of the first global stocktake, at the UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai.
Parties weighed in on issues ranging from mitigation to finance to adaption, with widespread agreement that more action by all and support for developing countries is needed to meet the Paris goal of limiting warming to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures — and preferably by no more than 1.5° C.
"The report is again telling us the world is off track. Cop 28 is the moment for all parties to come together and put actionable solutions on the table," Cop 28 president-designate Sultan Al Jaber said.
The stocktake is conducted every five years to measure progress towards the Paris agreement. It is intended to inform the next round of countries' emissions reductions plans, due in 2025.
The report suggests the stocktake decision could "call on and urge parties to undertake urgent and deep reductions in GHG emissions in this critical decade with the aim of keeping 1.5° in reach and avoid further irreversible impacts."
This could be tied to global emissions reduction goals of 43pc by 2030, 60pc by 2035 and 84pc by 2050, all relative to 2019 levels, along with asking countries to ensure their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are "consistent with" the ambition needed to achieve those reductions.
The stocktake could call on parties to "facilitate commitment" toward achieving peak global emissions of CO2 no later than 2026, net-zero CO2 by 2050 and net-zero for all GHGs by the early 2070s. And it could ask developed countries to reach net-zero considerably earlier than the global average and net negative as soon as possible.
Action to support those reductions could include tripling renewable and clean energy deployment by 2030, doubling low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030 and ending support for new, unabated coal-fired generation alongside a global phase out of unabated coal power by 2040 "in a just manner." The decision could also recognize the role of carbon markets to help with mitigation.
On an issue that held up the end of last year's Cop 27, the report suggests calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels and a global effort to accelerate the phase-out of unabated fossil fuel.
Follow the money
Views among the UNFCCC parties are mixed as how to help developing countries fund efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.
The report suggests language highlighting a number of concerns around funding provided to date, while also noting that there is sufficient global capital to close current investment gaps.
"But persistent misallocation of capital and barriers to directing financial flows to climate action must be overcome," the report says in one proposed "decision element" Cop 28 could adopt. "Aligning financial flows is synonymous with unlocking the trillions of dollars needed to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement."
The report suggests the parties recognize the various gaps in finance, including disparities in money for mitigation and adaptation, and the uneven flows to developing versus developed countries. "Further action needs to be taken by developed countries to ensure finance is flowing to where the needs are the greatest," the report said.
