Danish marine fuel trader and supplier Bunker Holding said it expects a fifth of the bunker fuel mix to comprise "new fuels" by 2030, delegates heard at the Argus Biofuels conference in London.
The "new fuels" include LNG, biofuel blends, methanol and ammonia. Bunker Holding is more "bullish" on methanol and believes biofuels will play a key role in reaching the IMO's 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets for the shipping industry, according to Valerie Ahrens, senior director of new fuels and carbon markets at Bunker Holding.
Biofuels may also have a place in the bunker fuel mix longer term, Ahrens said. "There is a case for biofuel blends in maritime beyond 2030 and not just as a transition fuel."
Ahrens also pointed to new bio-based fuels such as pyrolysis oil, which may serve as a viable alternative bunker fuel. She noted that pricing, availability, regulations and toxicity of ammonia slippage as some of the major challenges in developing bunkering infrastructure for alternative marine fuels.
Argus price assessments of alternative and conventional bunker fuels are shown in the table below. Biofuel prices in ARA based on advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) factor in the value of Dutch renewable fuel units (HBEs) which can be claimed for the blending of advanced biofuels.
Alternative and conventional marine fuel prices | $/t | ||||||
Month | B30 Marine Advanced Fame 0C CFPP dob ARA | LNG NWE bunker dob VLSFOe | Grey methanol Rotterdam barge dob VLSFOe | ARA biomethanol dob VLSFOe | B100 Marine Advanced Fame 0C CFPP dob ARA | Fuel oil 0.5%S 380cst (VLSFO) ARA dob | Gasoil bunker 0.1%S (MGO) ARA dob |
Oct 2023 | 691.33 | 619.57 | 637.11 | 2426.30 | 845.24 | 586.44 | 867.42 |
Sep 2023 | 728.56 | 571.45 | 556.92 | 2384.12 | 915.47 | 609.52 | 943.11 |
Aug 2023 | 781.68 | 543.43 | 543.55 | 2384.65 | 1133.13 | 592.12 | 885.33 |
Jul 2023 | 728.14 | 485.86 | 480.96 | 2400.27 | 1071.37 | 542.12 | 754.67 |
Argus data | |||||||
The above prices are monthly averages. Units of $/t VLSFOe refer to energy density equivalents of VLSFO. |