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Demand from metals sector bolsters sulphur pricing

  • Market: Fertilizers, Metals
  • 19/10/23

Demand from the metals sector has supported upward price moves for sulphur, for sellers in the Middle East and the Baltics and buyers in southern Africa and southeast Asia, while fertilizer demand is starting to plateau.

A flurry of bookings for sulphur vessel loadings for Indonesia supported upward price moves last week, as demand for sulphur used in the nickel-leeching process firmed. The southeast Asia cfr sulphur price rose to $135.50/t cfr, an increase of 59pc from mid-July, and became the strongest cfr sulphur price globally at present. Nine cargoes were booked for loading from the Middle East and Canada to nickel producers Huayue and Lygend in Indonesia.

Higher price points drew more sulphur vessels eastwards. Molten sulphur vessel the Iver Ability loaded from the Middle East and is headed for Indonesia this month. This is the first time that this vessel has headed eastwards since May, vessel-tracking data show.

Demand for sulphur from copper mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has also offered support to delivered pricing. The southern African cfr sulphur price climbed to $131.50/t cfr in October, from $85/t cfr in July. China's CMOC earlier this year issued a large annual tender for about 200,000t for its copper-producing Tenke Fungurume mine. This has led to a spate of bookings for sulphur vessels discharging in Dar Es Salaam. The Samsun, PPS Luck, Nord Dubai and Aramis loaded from the UAE in September, carrying a combined total of 212,000t of sulphur.

Sulphur price increases also have been supported by MAP and DAP pricing that has firmed since August. But demand from the fertilizer sector is starting to cool off. Sulphur stocks in China — a major sulphur buyer and fertilizer producer — reached 2.75mn t this week, similar to volumes during the Covid-19 pandemic when all product was being stored on a lack of demand. Liquidity has started to stifle now that Indonesian and African sulphur demand for the metals sector is covered and DAP and MAP demand is starting to drop again.

Recent sulphur trades to metals buyers that have concluded at higher prices may have set the ceiling for the market in the final quarter of this year.


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26/12/24

Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US ammonium sulfate (amsul) prices are likely to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2025 because of increased demand, high feedstock costs and more forward purchases as buyers look to avoid the high prices seen last spring. Scarcity seen in the 2023-2024 fertilizer year in the US amsul market has continued into 2024-2025. Strong demand has drained US inventories, despite rising domestic production in the third quarter, which increased by 11pc to 4.8mn short tons (st) compared to the five-year average of 4.25mn st, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). But production in the fourth quarter has fallen because of extended plant downtime. Major production facilities such as AdvanSix's 1.75mn st Hopewell, Virginia, plant and Nutrien's 700,000 metric tonne (t) Redwater, Alberta, plant underwent prolonged turnarounds in the fourth quarter, according to sources. The unplanned downtime reduced the availability of pre-pay volumes in the market and caused at least one producer to partly cover their reduced output by purchasing imports. But imports have only provided the US market with limited supply relief. Year-over-year, US imports are lagging by 17pc from July through October. Around 282,700t of amsul entered the US during the period, compared to the 338,600t that arrived in the same period last year. This year's imports are still 11pc greater than the five-year average, illustrating the trend of demand growth in the US. Increasing feedstock costs have also supported amsul prices through the back-half of 2024. Fertilizer producer IOC said higher feedstock costs were the primary driver of its fourth quarter price hike at the start of October. Feedstock ammonia prices are expected to slip or remain stable for January because of seasonal weakness and lower global prices, said sources. Feedstock sulfur market prices on the other hand have risen over the period and may incur a $20-30/st increase because of rising global demand, according to market participants. Amsul's relationship status update Amsul values slipped in December and early January of last year, allowing the market to buy at lower values before the spring season. The opposite is anticipated to occur this year after major producers AdvanSix and IOC increased their offers for first quarter pre-pay delivery in December. Despite the rising price of amsul, buyers have been lining up more forward deliveries this fall than other years, according to sources. In lieu of hand-to-mouth buying and rising prices last spring, buyers are looking to hedge against potential volatility in the back half of the fertilizer year. Bolstered demand has led to additional price strength which is expected to persist through the winter season. Demand for ammonium sulfate arrived earlier than usual but it is unclear whether it will resurface as strong in the spring. Amsul price in the US Corn Belt recently rose to an average of $380/st, 20pc above the average price in December of last year. Amsul prices typically rise in the spring season when applications begin, so amsul values would appreciate even further if that trend occurs this year. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Real, tariffs to hit Brazil steel imports


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

Viewpoint: Real, tariffs to hit Brazil steel imports

Sao Paulo, 26 December (Argus) — Steel importers in Brazil are likely to face a tougher market in 2025 as government measures and the Brazilian real's depreciation to the US dollar make products from abroad less attractive. Brazilian steel importers are concerned that tariff-quota and antidumping policy changes made this year by the federal and state governments could raise costs for importing cargoes in 2025, likely exacerbating the impacts of a sharply depreciated Brazilian real relative to the dollar. The concerns come as US president-elect Donald Trump is already raising global trade tensions, with specific focus on Mexico, Canada and China, that could unleash waves of dueling trade measures. After seeing strong import growth in the post-Covid-19 recovery, Brazil steel importers are fretting they may lose momentum. Brazil's steel imports year-to-date November rose by nearly 24.4pc to 5.6mn metric tonnes (t) from the same period a year earlier. They are expected to end the full year 2024 up by 24pc, according to steel association Aco Brasil, after climbing by 50pc in 2023. Apparent consumption rose by 9.6pc to 24mn t in the 11 months through November, while production increased by just 5.6pc to 31.17mn t from a year earlier. Even with a 28pc depreciationof the real to the dollar in the 12 months through 24 December, prices for dollar-denominated steel imports still have a cost advantage over domestically produced steel. But that advantage is narrowing as the real weakens, with the price difference from imports over the domestic market narrowing to just $112/t in the latest assessment for hot-rolled coils (HRC) from $172/t in mid-October . "The dollar's [appreciation to the real] is messing up imports," one market participant told Argus , saying a wider price advantage for importers was necessary to offset issues like the exchange rate risk and the shipping time. Market participants also cited rising borrowing costs in Brazil as an additional challenge for imports, as many buyers rely on financing to purchase material from abroad. Brazil's central bank on 11 December unexpectedly hiked its target interest rate by a full percentage point to 12.25pc , citing the country's uncertain fiscal situation, accelerating inflation and challenging external conditions. Importers recently expressed concerns over Santa Catarina state's decision to no longer grant tax incentives for imports of six different steel and iron products for commercialization or resale in 2025. Although the timeline for implementing the measure was postponed to July and could face changes, importers remain concerned and are monitoring any possible reviews of the decision, sources told Argus . Santa Catarina's main port, Sao Francisco do Sul, accounted for over one-third of every steel product that is imported to Brazil from January to September, according to data from the country's distributors association, INDA, published in September. On the federal front, the government is likely to announce new and renewed antidumping measures for products coming mainly from China, Brazil's largest steel supplier. Another obstacle for importers would be a possible review of the tariff system for steel imports, which was implemented in June 2024 and led to additional tariffs of up to 25pc. The measure proved mostly ineffective at curbing imports into Brazil, and the industry group Aco Brasil said it would ask for adjustments . Despite the challenges, there is still room for importers to bring material to Brazil , as the country lacks steel to supply its domestic demand, another market participant said. "Brazil will always need imports because it still lacks some key home-made products to feed its market," the participant said. By Carolina Pulice Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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China's GFEX launches polysilicon futures contracts


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

China's GFEX launches polysilicon futures contracts

Beijing, 26 December (Argus) — China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) has launched futures contracts and options for polysilicon today. This is the third contract that GFEX has launched, following the launch of its contracts for silicon metal in December 2022 and lithium carbonate in July 2023. The launch of polysilicon contracts is aimed at easing a supply surplus and ensuring market development, given increasing new capacities at polysilicon producers and lower-than-expected demand from the downstream silicon wafer industry in the past two years, according to market participants. The new contracts are for benchmark N-type polysilicon and substitute P-type polysilicon. The exchange has set a premium of 12,000 yuan/t ($1,644/t) for the N-type over the P-type. It is offering seven contracts starting from June 2025 until December. The most-traded June contracts for N-type polysilicon on the GFEX closed at Yn41,570/t on 26 December, up from the launch price of Yn38,600/t, with trading volumes totalling 301,655 lots, equivalent to around 905,000t. GFEX has established delivery points for the new contracts in eight provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang. Output and consumption in these regions account for 93.1pc and 91pc of the country's total output and consumption respectively, according to GFEX. South China-based GFEX launched in April 2021 and is partly owned by China's four operational futures exchanges — the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange — with each holding a 15pc stake. Market reaction Some market participants expect the new futures contracts will ease pressure from ample spot inventories and shore up spot market sentiment in the coming months. But the market has yet to see immediate effects on the first trading day. Argus -assessed domestic prices for 5-5-3 grade silicon metal — a key feedstock in the production of silicon powder, which is the feedstock for polysilicon — held at Yn11,200-11,400/t delivered to ports on 26 December, unchanged from 24 December given limited buying interest from consumers. The most-traded February contracts for 5-5-3 grade silicon on the GFEX closed at Yn11,190/t on 26 December, down from Yn11,585/t on 25 December. China is the world's largest polysilicon producer, producing 1.74mn t during January-November, up by 33pc from a year earlier, according to data from the China nonferrous metals industry association (CNIA). It has an production capacity of over 2mn t/yr, according to industry estimates. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

Tokyo, 26 December (Argus) — Japan's crude steel output is expected to recover during April 2025-March 2026, given higher output in wider domestic industries, according to government affiliated think-tank the Institution of Energy Economy Japan (IEEJ). The country's crude steel output will increase by 4.1pc on the year to 86.5mn t in 2024-25, according to the IEEJ's projection on 24 December. This will mark the first year-on-year growth in four years. A recovery is mostly attributed to an uptrend in wider domestic industrial sectors including automobile, electric and industrial machinery, IEEJ said. It sees domestic car output increasing by 1.8pc to 8.9mn units from a year earlier. IEEJ did not provide further details, but it suggested that expanding investment for digital and green transformation will underpin the steel demand throughout the period. The think-tank also predicts that the country's steel product exports will increase by 1.2pc on the year following an upward trend in the global manufacturing sectors. Japan delivered around 32mn t of steel products overseas during 2023-24, according to the industry group the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF). The country's crude steel output has been sluggish throughout 2024, partly owing to weak demand from the construction and automobile sectors. Rising material costs and labour shortages have led to fewer construction projects in the country, weighing on steel demand. Operational suspensions at major auto manufacturers including Toyota and Daihatsu, following alleged false reporting on safety test results, also pressured steel demand. This partially led to the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year decline in booked orders of ordinary steel for car use in October, according to JISF. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows

Pittsburgh, 24 December (Argus) — A wave of new electric arc furnace steel mills coming on line next year could transform scrap flows in North America, while looming US import tariffs could stunt cross-border trade. Six steel mills in the US and Canada, accounting for about 9.9mn short tons (st)/yr of electric arc furnace (EAF) production, are ramping up from late this year or scheduled to start up in 2025. The new EAFs, mostly along the Mississippi River and in Ontario, could be magnets for scrap and reshape flows across the southeast, Midwest and Canada, as scrap-fed EAF steelmakers continue to expand their role in North America, which was historically dominated by coal and iron ore-fed blast furnaces. Although some scrap dealers are optimistic about markets in the new year, market participants are carefully monitoring the effect president-elect Donald Trump's hawkish trade policies could have on scrap trading. Trump has pledged to impose 25pc tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico that could further shift North American scrap flows. Canada is the largest shipper of ferrous scrap into the US at an average of 3mn metric tonnes (t)/yr since 2021. Prime scrap imports between January and October this year averaged 47,000t/month, while shred imports averaged 70,000t/month, US customs data shows. The import tax would drive up the cost of Canadian scrap for US buyers and potentially reduce supply available to steel mills in the Midwest. Scrap traders noted that Trump can be unpredictable and may be using the threat of tariffs as leverage. "I'm pretty tepid on the first quarter," one Midwest dealer said. "People are trying to figure out how serious Trump is on tariffs." New EAFs to drive scrap demand The new scrap-fed EAFs in North America include Algoma Steel in Ontario, Hybar in Arkansas, and Nippon Steel's and ArcelorMittal's joint venture in Alabama. US Steel's Big River Steel began melting scrap at its second Arkansas EAF in October. EAF steelmaker Hybar plans to open its 630,000 st/yr reinforcing bar mill in northeast Arkansas in the summer of 2025. Hybar, along with Big River Steel and three Nucor mills already in the region, could further bolster the lower Mississippi River basin as a major scrap market. "I'm looking forward to next year because of the increased competition," a Midwestern scrap dealer said. "It's always good to have options." The new consumption could position northeast Arkansas and Tennessee as perhaps the top scrap consuming region, making it an industry barometer in 2025. Chicago has historically held that position and has been the benchmark region in contracts. Shifting flows in Canada Algoma Steel plans to begin ramping up two new EAFs in Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, in March next year to continue making hot-rolled coil and steel plate. The EAFs could eventually bring that facility's maximum steel production levels to 3.7mn st/yr once they fully replace Algoma's blast furnaces. The steelmaker will likely focus on low-copper shred and prime scrap grades to keep up the iron content in its melt mix as it transitions to EAF steelmaking, one Canadian scrap consumer said. Algoma may also continue to rely on raw inputs like direct reduced iron and hot briquetted iron as it ramps up its scrap buying to feed the EAFs. Market participants in Canada expect the mill to buy scrap from the prairies west of Sault Ste Marie, as well as from the greater Toronto area to the mill's east, though Algoma will face competition to pull scrap from the latter region. Scrap dealers in the upper Midwest are also keen to supply Algoma Steel because buyers in that region are scarce. A Midwest dealer noted that Algoma may ship in scrap from US ports on the Great Lakes. Algoma did not respond to requests for comment on its raw material plans. In 2021, the company set up a joint venture with Triple M Metal, a Canadian scrap dealer with 45 yards, that will likely supply scrap for Algoma Steel in Sault Ste Marie. By James Marshall and Brad MacAulay US steel mill capacity additions Million short tons/yr Company Location Product type Capacity added Start date US Steel/Big River Steel Osceola, AR Sheet 3.00 RAMPING ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Calvert, AL Sheet 1.65 2H 2024 Algoma Steel Sault Ste. Marie, ON Sheet 3.70 1Q 2025 Nucor Lexington, NC Bar 0.43 1Q 2025 Hybar Osceola, AR Bar 0.63 2Q 2025 CMC Berkeley, WV Bar 0.50 4Q 2025 Total 9.91 Argus reporting & public statements Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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