The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry must commercialise feedstock materials such as municipal solid waste and agricultural and forestry residues or face a "feedstock crunch", according to the IEA.
In its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO), published today, the IEA described SAF as the "most promising option" to decarbonise the aviation sector, but warned a feedstock crunch would hamper growth in the short term unless alternative feedstocks are scaled up. The IEA advised the industry to commercialise feedstocks besides used cooking oil (UCO) and waste animal fats.
The IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which is based on prevailing policies worldwide, predicts rising demand for aviation fuel produced from biogenic feedstocks, which it terms as biojet kerosene. The WEO explores two other scenarios — the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes government targets on emissions are met in full and on time, and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) lays a path to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The IEA predicts biojet kerosene will make up 2pc of total energy demand in aviation in 2030 and 6pc in 2050 under the STEPS, over 5pc and 37pc respectively in the APS, and 11pc and 70pc respectively in the NZE.
In addition, synthetic kerosene production technology should be scaled up, the IEA said. The use of bio-based SAF in the aviation industry will peak in the mid-2020s to be later complemented by a rising share of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs), including e-kerosine and renewable hydrogen, according to an IEA report released last month.
SAF off-take agreements more than doubled in volume between 2021 and 2022, the IEA said.
Green gas production to double by 2030
Combined production of biogas and biomethane — produced either by "upgrading" biogas or through the gasification of solid biomass followed by methanation — will reach 80bn m³ by 2030, nearly doubling from 2022 levels, according to the IEA's STEPS scenario.
The IEA said this sees rising demand for low-carbon, large-scale gas injections produced from agricultural waste and residue sites in the next few decades. About 300bn m³ equivalent of potential production lies within 20km of major gas pipeline infrastructure would provide a "good match", the IEA said.
In the APS, total biomethane production reaches 240bn m³ equivalent by 2050; in the NZE it rises to nearly 300bn m³ equivalent.
Demand for organic waste and short rotation woody crops feedstocks will increase, overtaking and offsetting first-generation biofuel produced from crops and solid biomass, under the APS and NZE scenarios.
