Viewpoint: Regulations to weigh on Asia UCO, boost Pome

Market: Biofuels
19/12/23

European policy changes will continue to drive Asia-Pacific biofuel feedstock markets in 2024, even though a set of new regulations to boost renewable fuel use across sectors are unlikely to take effect until the following year.

The European Council and Parliament formally adopted the third iteration of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime in September 2023, will all three expected to apply from 2025. But more imminent European regulatory changes including revisions to individual member states' blending mandates and updated certification guidance for mills supplying palm oil residues should affect prices ahead of this.

Biofuels policy discussions also accelerated in Asia-Pacific during 2023, including in Malaysia, China and Indonesia. But timelines for implementing policies on second-generation biofuels and feedstocks within the region remain shaky, with European demand still playing a large part in driving prices for Asian waste and advanced feedstocks in 2024.

The biofuels complex in Europe and Asia-Pacific was under pressure for much of 2023. An influx of advanced biodiesel from China to Europe caused oversupplies of double-counted physical biodiesel and tradeable tickets, which have pressured renewable fuel prices in the EU and consequently Asia-Pacific (see charts 1 and 2).

The change in trade flows spurred several investigations across Europe. The EU's formal inquiry into China's potential involvement in circumventing import duties on Indonesian biodiesel is expected to conclude in early 2024, with the bloc likely to impose countermeasures that will hamper flows of Chinese used cooking oil (UCO) methyl ester to its main buyer if evidence of any malpractice is found. China's commitment to promote domestic biodiesel blending may appear a ray of hope, although market participants expect local government funding for the programme will be unlikely to support UCO prices at current levels.

Feedstock demand from renewable diesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) producers in the US, Singapore and Europe has supported Asian UCO prices to some extent in 2023, as margins for hydrotreated biofuels have remained significantly higher than for their first-generation counterparts.

Changing flows

But a decision by one of Europe's biggest HVO consumers Sweden to drastically cut its greenhouse gas reduction mandate for 2024-26 will curtail short-term EU HVO demand. HVO demand across the bloc will now total roughly 3.9mn t in 2024, Argus Consulting forecasts, down from 4.5mn t before mandates were adjusted lower.

A weaker demand outlook, combined with higher interest rates, mean some standalone HVO and SAF refineries due to come on stream in the Asia-Pacific are considering reducing planned capacity or delaying start-ups. They may not begin buying significant UCO volumes in 2024 as many feedstock suppliers had hoped.

The flow of Asian UCO to the US established in 2023 will almost certainly continue, although it will unlikely provide the same price support. US, Asian and European UCO markets are now poised to move in parallel, having integrated after substantial imports of cheaper Chinese UCO drove sharp losses in US UCO prices (see chart 3).

But tighter supplies may support firmer prices for RED-certified palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil in 2024.

Availability of the palm oil residue will likely fall as a new ISCC requirement for full upstream traceability applies market-wide. Collectors must ensure all mills they buy from are certified by their next annual audit after 1 August 2023. But some aggregators expect a sizeable portion of mills on their books will choose not to pay for certification, leaving them unable to supply the EU market.

By Lauren Moffitt

Ucome fob China, strait of Malacca ($/t)

ARA Ucome, advanced Fame ($/t)

US vs China, ARA UCO ($/t)

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31/12/24

Viewpoint: Changing incentives shift RD and SAF in 2025

Houston, 31 December (Argus) — Federal guidance on the US Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) 45Z production tax credit will be a lifeline for domestic renewable fuels producers and a key determinant of production splits from 2025 onward, with the largest awards currently earmarked for aviation fuels. Although preliminary guidance and registration protocols were released earlier in 2024, the industry awaits the impending signal that will replace the IRA's section 40B blender's tax credit. The expiring blender's tax credit (BTC) was instrumental in the ramp-up of US renewable diesel production in recent years. Renewable diesel comprised about 65pc of California's overall diesel pool by the first quarter of 2024, but that growing availability has come at the expense of the value of several of the fuel's financial incentives. Valuation of California's prompt Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits has trended lower across the past four years. Prices in May reached an almost nine-year low of $41/t and remained depressed through the summer, during which both renewable diesel imports and domestic production hit all-time highs. Preliminary guidance on the 45Z credit proposes aviation fuels earn $1.75/USG while the maximum for road fuels would reach only $1/USG. Fuels with lower carbon intensity measured by the complete production process will receive greater rewards, in contrast to the expiring blenders tax credit (BTC). This new opportunity, originally announced in 2022, signaled the possibility of increased SAF production and innovation. A flurry of developers have moved forward with SAF projects since, while major renewable fuel producers eye converting RD capacity to SAF. With similar refinery tooling, catalysts, and feedstock requirements, the ability to produce both fuels and toggle between the two has the potential to re-inflate producers' margins. Another opportunity enabled by SAF production as opposed to road fuels is the ability to monetize SAF certificates (SAFc) as a part of the production process. To offset the costs associated with production and act as an added profit generator, existing SAF producers partner with corporate clients and public sector entities looking to offset emissions from business activities like air travel. Under SAFc agreements, a producer will sell the physical fuel to the air carrier, while the environmental attributes go to the corporate client. The physical commodity and certificates are decoupled using a "book and claim" scheme, which creates a digital registry that tracks associated emissions. Renewable diesel production is for now concentrated among biorefineries throughout the US Gulf coast, Midwest and west coast. US capacity trended higher in 2024, largely on the back of conversions, and the supply balance from 2025 onward will likely hinge on domestic output as the new credit scheme removes key incentives for imports. Global Clean Energy in mid-December reached commercial operations of about 5,900 b/d of RD at its Bakersfield, California, conversion. But some refiners have begun to pump the brakes on renewable diesel expansion, citing a degradation in economics that could worsen without the BTC's guaranteed $1/USG. Vertex Energy in the third quarter finished reverting a renewable fuels hydrocracking unit back to processing fossil fuel feedstocks at its 88,000 b/d Mobile, Alabama, facility. Renewable diesel market participants otherwise expect refiners will bring forward into early 2025 planned maintenance, and potentially curb output, as the market overall awaits clarification on 45Z eligibility and award levels. As of 2024, the US Environmental Protection Agency's monthly reporting of renewable fuel production through RIN generation data breaks out renewable jet fuel. The data show a three-fold increase in the amount of SAF produced in the US versus 2023, but also a large boom in imports, mostly from Asia to the US west coast. The expiring BTC enabled the influx of imports, as refiners were able to bring finished neat SAF onshore, blend it with conventional jet fuel, and receive the tax credit, valued at roughly $1.50/USG. With no BTC, import trade flows will be in jeopardy, because new policy aims to support domestic production. In the short term, this would drastically reduce the amount of SAF available in the US, with imports making up roughly 62pc of supply in 2024. These new domestic producers, padded by a new SAF production tax credit, will have ample opportunity to meet US market demand. As airlines look to buy SAF in areas beyond California, having an expansive infrastructure and logistical framework including producers across the US will keep airlines well positioned to increase SAF consumption. By Matthew Cope and Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Supply concerns drive RSO backwardation

31/12/24

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31/12/24

Viewpoint: Supply concerns drive RSO backwardation

London, 31 December (Argus) — Strong export estimates for Australian and Ukrainian rapeseed and canola could offset lower projected levels from Canada, but EU crushers are wary about a supply shortfall for the rest of their 2024-25 crop year. The European Commission forecasts EU 27 rapeseed production at around 17mn t for 2024-25, down from average of 18.2mnt in the previous four crop years. With the EU 27 average rapeseed crush at around 25mn t, based on data from vegetable oil association Fediol, the bloc will need to find 7mn t of rapeseed and canola on the import market for its needs, which include RSO production for transformation into biodiesel. Australia, Ukraine to fill the gap? Australia, which typically delivers 50-70pc of its canola exports to the EU, is forecast to export 4.1mn t in 2024-25, according to the country's agriculture department Abares. Estimates for EU rapeseed imports from major exporter Ukraine vary. The USDA FAS Kyiv earlier this year forecast rapeseed exports from the war-torn country at around 3.6mn t in 2024/25 — a 22pc increase from 3mn t in 2023-24 partly due to expectations of decreased domestic crush levels. Argus estimates this slightly lower, at 3.4mn t — a 6pc increase from its 2023-24 export forecast of 3.22mn t — all of which is likely to make its way to EU countries. But canola production in Canada, one of the EU's key suppliers, is forecast by Statistics Canada at the lowest since 2021-22 at 17.8mn t, probably resulting in an export shortfall compared with previous years. Increased domestic crush levels and rising demand in non-EU countries such as China, Japan and Mexico, which "generally have a willingness to pay more for quality product" according to the USDA — referring to non-GMO treated canola — could reduce EU-bound flows in the coming months. Current- and new-crop RSO in steep backwardation The forward structure between rapeseed oil (RSO) fob Dutch mill current-crop 2024-25 contracts — comprising spot 5-40 days loading and February-March-April (FMA) and May-June-July (MJJ) RSO strips — and the August-September-October (ASO) new-crop contract for 2025 has moved into an unusually steep backwardation in recent months, driven by concerns about rapeseed availability before the start of the 2025-26 crop year. Argus' assessments for the ASO strip were at an average discount of around €80/t ($84/t) to FMA and MJJ contracts as of 13 December. This compares with a curve that saw current- versus new-crop contracts in contango through December 2022 and 2023. This means biodiesel producers will probably have to continue to work with thin margins. Although rapeseed oil methyl ester (RME) fob ARA range prices have followed RSO prices higher, comparatively larger gains on the feedstock outlay have pressured operations. The price spread between spot RME and RSO prices averaged $150/t in the first of half of December, compared with around $200/t in the same period of 2023. Looming agricultural trade barriers Global agricultural trade barriers that have either begun or are planned will be decisive drivers of global vegetable oil prices and trade flows in the new year. China said in September it would start an anti-dumping investigation into canola from Canada. Canola exports from Canada to China are usually between 2mn-4mnt. Indonesia plans to introduce a B40 biodiesel blending mandate in 2025 and has already introduced export permit requirements on palm oil residues, which has sent Malaysian palm oil futures to multi-year highs. In the US, president-elect Donald Trump's announcement about the imposition of 25pc tariffs on all US imports from Canada and Mexico has lead to volatility in the wider vegetable oil complex as well. By Madeleine Jenkins EU rapeseed imports by country of origin mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Crop-based feedstocks face an uphill battle

30/12/24

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: Crop-based feedstocks face an uphill battle

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — US biofuel producers' demand for soybean and canola oil has waned recently, a trend that looks unlikely to reverse in the near term because of domestic policy changes that prioritize lower carbon intensity feedstocks. Expectations that a US renewable diesel boom would drive up demand for vegetable oil led agribusinesses to announce new soybean crush plants and expansions in 2022. Seven new soybean crush plants have come online since then, increasing US nameplate capacity by 10pc to 2.91bn bushels/yr, but new policies have diverged from crop-based feedstocks because of their higher carbon intensity. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to adopt new low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) targets on 6 November. CARB hiked the carbon-intensity reduction target of California's transportation fuels from 20pc to 30pc by 2030, in hopes of balancing the pool of oversupplied LCFS credits, which alone reduced incentives for crop-based fuels. But more critically, the new rules will impose tighter restrictions for crop-based feedstocks, capping a company's LCFS credit generation from vegetable oil-based biofuel at 20pc/yr, starting in 2028 for existing plants. Apart from that, CARB will require producers to track the point of origin of crop-based feedstocks, adding to costs. Soybean oil-based biofuel already fetches a lower LCFS credit value in California, and the additional traceability requirement could further deter biofuel producers. Soybean oil- and canola oil-based fuel made up approximately 20pc of the biodiesel and renewable diesel traded into California during the second quarter of 2024, according to CARB's most recent quarterly data. While soybean oil is the most used feedstock in US biodiesel production, used cooking oil (UCO) leads US renewable diesel production. Biofuels produced with lower carbon-intensity feedstocks like UCO, tallow and distillers corn oil receive generous LCFS credits compared to soybean oil and canola oil. That credit premium has led to a surge in UCO and tallow imports into the US , weighing on demand for soybean oil and leading to outcry from farm groups to restrict foreign feedstocks from qualifying for the Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC). More challenging is the expiration of the blenders tax credit (BTC) by the end of 2024, which offers $1/USG to biomass-based diesel regardless of the carbon intensity of their feedstocks. The CFPC, also known as the 45Z credit under the Inflation Reduction Act, will replace the BTC in 2025. Unlike the BTC, the CFPC will provide a tax credit based on how low the carbon intensity of the fuel is to a baseline level of 50kg of CO equivalent/mmBTU. This means crop-based diesel fuels will receive far less credit value starting next year than they received for years under the BTC. Some renewable diesel and biodiesel producers are set to idle production in January amid a lack of clarity on how the tax credit changes will impact fuel and feedstock demand. Biofuel and agriculture groups are also waiting final guidance for "climate-smart agricultural practices" and how that would factor into the final 45Z credit for vegetable oil-based biofuels. These climate-smart practices might include no-till farming, planting cover crops, efficient fertilizer use, and more. The US Department of Agriculture recently sent guidelines on climate-smart agricultural crops used as biofuel feedstocks to the White House for final review, giving the industry some hope that they will qualify for a bigger federal credit under 45Z. But how much crop feedstocks will be able to close the gap with waste feedstocks is unclear. US soybean oil futures fell to 39.52¢/lb as of 27 December, down by 17pc from the start of 2024, weighed down by the prospects of a large South American soybean crop and lackluster demand from the US biofuel industry. The US Department of Agriculture's December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected Brazil's 2024-25 soybean production at 169mn t, 10pc higher compared to the prior year. Argentina soybean production was forecast at 52mn t, up by 7.9pc from a year earlier. Soybean planting is ongoing in both regions, with Brazil at 98pc completion as of 22 December and Argentina at 85pc as of 26 December. Some relief from falling soybean oil future prices has come from increased US soybean oil exports, driven by palm oil prices hitting their highest level since 2022. US export commitments for soybean oil were at 526,630t as of 19 December, nearly surpassing the US Department of Agriculture's currently projected level for 2024-25 marketing year. Mexico is among the major buyers of US soybean oil, but if president-elect Donald Trump imposes 25pc tariffs on imports from Mexico , retaliatory action could affect soybean oil demand. Despite the support from soybean oil export sales, the vegetable oil industry will still need support from the US biofuel industry for prices to recover. And should palm oil prices fall, US soybean oil producers will not be able to rely as much on international markets, leaving them to lean more heavily on fighting for changes in US biofuels policy. By Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US midcon E15 shift looms again

30/12/24

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30/12/24

Viewpoint: US midcon E15 shift looms again

Houston, 30 December (Argus) — A potential reformulation of gasoline in eight midcontinent states to accommodate year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) could lead to shortages in midcontinent fuel supply and an increase in retail prices in 2025. Approaching the 2025 summer driving season, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin and, now, Missouri once again await the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) enforcement of compliance on their exclusion from the 1-psi rule. The one-pound waiver in the Clean Air Act allows for a 1 psi higher Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), a more expensive specification for 9-10pc ethanol blend that allows gasoline during the summer to be 9 RVP. Opting out would lead to the production of two separate grades of gasoline, the standard summer 9 RVP CBOB and a new, non-waiver 7.80 RVP CBOB that could be blended into E15. Many of the refiners and pipelines in the region would serve states that have opted out of the waiver, and states that will remain within the waiver and the lack of uniformity in specifications across the midcontinent would likely cause difficulty in logistics for refiners and pipeline operators. This new 7.80 RVP gasoline formulation would be a boutique grade CBOB that would only be found in the midcontinent during the summer, adding to the difficulty of producing the grade. The differences between the waiver and the non-waiver grades of gasoline would be mostly contained to the summer driving season, according to participants in the US midcontinent gasoline market. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), a trade association for fuel makers, again petitioned the EPA to delay the midcontinent governors' request until 2026. AFPM cited a new study by US consultancy Baker and O'Brien that forecast a 131,000 b/d decrease in CBOB production if the midcontinent states were to opt out of the waiver. This would be the equivalent of a sustained refinery outage in the region and could lead to supply-cost increases of 9-12¢/USG, up from an estimated 8-12¢/USG a year earlier. Baker and O'Brien's study also indicated that supply costs could be between $700mn and $1.2bn, with the lower end using the 185 days of the summer driving season with no disruptions and the upper end of the range assuming at least a two-week regional supply shortage. The study also said that a delay until 2026 would allow for more time to implement the capital investments needed to fully accommodate the change to non-waiver gasoline in some of the states but noted that many of the improvements needed would take two years to complete. Many refiners and pipeline operators are hesitant to invest when a legislative solution could make the changes unnecessary. US Gulf coast supply lines The US midcontinent relies on the US Gulf coast to provide resupply in the event of a refinery outage in the region or to accommodate increasing demand. The Explorer Pipeline which connects from the US Gulf coast to the US midcontinent is one of the major pipelines to deliver product into the region. Transit time on the pipeline for delivery to the Chicago area is roughly two weeks. The US midcontinent in 2021-2024 averaged receipts of 1.16mn bl/month of finished gasoline during the May-September summer driving season, according to US Energy Information Administration data. The arbitrage for shipping CBOB into the US midcontinent from the US Gulf coast is already on average open across the summer. A change in formulations would likely increase the need for product. Southern US midcontinent CBOB averaged an 8.33¢/USG premium to US Gulf coast product during the summer, over the Explorer's 7.14¢/USG tariff for shipping product from Pasadena, Texas, to Tulsa, Oklahoma. Chicago's Buckeye Complex CBOB averaged a 10.10¢/USG premium to its Gulf coast counterpart, also over the 8.40¢/USG tariff for shipping. History of delays The governors of Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Kansas, South Dakota and North Dakota in 2022 requested an exclusion from the 1-pound waiver in the Clean Air Act by claiming the waiver was contributing to air pollution in those states, a request that would require blendstocks for E10 and E15 sold in those states to be reformulated. The EPA granted their request in February 2024, but delayed lifting the waiver for summer 2024, following a slew of petitions from trade associations, refiners and pipeline companies asking for delays. The measure is still pending. President Joe Biden's administration avoided a potential disruption to seasonal E15 sales by tapping emergency powers in April 2022 to allow for the sale of E15 during the approaching summer, citing supply disruptions in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. EPA issued similar emergency waivers ahead of summer in 2023 and 2024 to facilitate the sale of E15, using the waiver 9 RVP gasoline. The US Congress is considering legislation options to avoid requirements to reformulate gasoline. A stopgap government funding bill that would fund the government through March included language to extend the one-pound waiver to E15 year-round and make the shift by the eight midcontinent states and the attached reformulation unnecessary. But the E15 provision was pulled from the stopgap funding bill following criticisms from President-elect Donald Trump and Telsa chief executive Elon Musk . By Zach Appel Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Consolidation looms in US methanol

27/12/24

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27/12/24

Viewpoint: Consolidation looms in US methanol

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — The sale of Netherlands-based OCI's methanol production assets to rival producer Methanex is set to shift the market, with US methanol production most affected by the move. Methanex in the third quarter of 2024 announced the $2bn acquisition, which is expected to close in the first half of 2025. The boards of directors of both companies and OCI's shareholders approved the transaction, but it is subject to regulatory approvals. OCI operates the 1mn t/yr OCI Beaumont plant and is a 50:50 partner in Natgasoline, a 1.7mn t/yr joint-venture plant between OCI and Proman. Methanex operates three plants in the US, all in Geismar, Louisiana. These plants carry a collective 4mn t/yr capacity and represent one-third of total US methanol capacity. At front and center of the acquisition is the Natgasoline plant in Beaumont. Natgasoline, when operational, represents 14pc of domestic production. The plant opened in 2018, and throughout those six years, the plant has seen its share of operational issues. The most recent was a fire at the reformer unit in early October, resulting in a complete shutdown lasting nearly three months. When the deal was announced, Methanex made it clear that the transaction was subject to approvals by OCI shareholders, as well as a pending legal decision between OCI and Proman. "If it is not settled within a certain period, Methanex has the option to carve out the purchase of the Natgasoline joint venture and close only on the remainder of the transaction," the company said in September. Methanex and OCI declined to give further details, as the deal is still pending. Proman did not respond to a request for comment. If it goes through, the acquisition would result in the exodus of OCI from the US methanol market. But the issue of liquidity in the US spot barge market is also looming. Market participants said OCI is a frequent buyer when the Natgasoline plant goes down. In October, when Natgasoline was completely shut down, 340,000 bl of methanol moved for delivery at ITC, the terminal on the Houston Ship Channel where methanol is exchanged, according to Argus data. Market participants expect liquidity to be about the same until some time after the deal closes. When a plant goes down, a producer will emerge in the spot market for purchases. In the longer term, there are some questions around international distribution and where US methanol exports find a home. Methanex is a major exporter to Asia, whereas OCI sells into the European market. The low-carbon methanol sector will also experience some shakeup. OCI is a major participant in the bio-methanol space, selling volume into Europe. Methanex produces carbon-captured methanol, also known as blue methanol, which has not penetrated the EU market. By Steven McGinn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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