Silicon prices in Europe have undergone a sustained price rally since early December, as a perfect storm of supply-side restraints has advanced prices to an eight-month high.
A combination of reduced metal imports from third-country suppliers, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and a fire at Elkem's Salten plant in Norway has underpinned a turnaround in silicon prices, a market that was weak throughout most of last year on depressed demand from the aluminium alloy and chemical sectors.
Arguably, the underlying demand situation has not fundamentally shifted, with tough macroeconomic conditions still dampening consumer markets. But the scale of supply disruptions on the cards has prompted some near-term interest from buyers, while others are just closely monitoring the situation.
Argus last assessed 5-5-3-grade silicon metal at €2,500-2,650/t ddp Europe works on 9 January, up by 14pc from €2,175-2,350/t on 5 December, and their highest level since May last year. Prices for 4-4-1-grade material followed the same trajectory, rising by 13pc to €2,600-2,800/t on 9 January from €2,350-2,450/t ddp Europe works on 5 December.
Norwegian silicon producer Elkem halted production at its Salten plant in Norway on 10 December after a fire broke out. Elkem confirmed to Argus on 13 December that the fire had been extinguished but production remained halted. The company has issued no further updates and had not responded to requests for comment by the time of publication.
Market participants are anxious to gauge the long-term impact of the fire, particularly while other silicon producers are operating at reduced rates because of furnace closures or are already well allocated on available output.
Spain-based producer Ferroglobe planned to idle its French operations — which include silicon metal and ferro-alloy production sites — toward the end of the fourth quarter of last year and will remain shut down during the first quarter. Sources indicated other producers in mainland Europe were facing financial and production difficulties.
In a departure from this pattern, Iceland's PCC BakkiSilicon is ramping up its second silicon metal furnace this week in response to improved market conditions. It ran only one of its two furnaces in October-December because of low demand and depressed market prices.
Ex-Europe supply not an immediate solution
Availability concerns arising from the continental supply pinch have been exaggerated by several consecutive months of lower imports from third-country silicon suppliers.
Europe imported 153,646t in July-September last year, 6pc lower than a year earlier, trade data show. Imports from China were down by 28pc to 16,892t and imports from Brazil fell by 14pc to 14,836t. China's market share of European imports was dented by stubbornly high prices in China that saw buyers turn to Norway and France, from which imports increased by 10pc and 24pc, respectively.
Imports in October, the most recent month for which trade data were available, were down by 19pc on the year to 45,163t. Imports from all major supplying countries except Spain dropped, with Norway down by 9pc, China by 4pc, France by 36pc, Brazil by 31pc, Iceland by 9pc and Malaysia by 34pc.
The march on European prices has brought the prospect of buying from China back into the fold in purely numerical terms, after a prolonged reversal of Europe's typical premium to Chinese prices, once normalised for import duties and delivery costs. But buyer visibility on shipping costs from Asia to Europe is subject to rising containerised freight prices caused by Houthi attacks on vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The same hurdle applies to purchases from Malaysia.
Silicon shipments from Brazil to Europe flow primarily through the ports of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, each situated on Brazil's east coast and therefore not beholden to transit through the Panama Canal, where traffic is currently restricted by low water levels, one redeeming feature for European importers amid the current shipping turmoil.
Danish container shipping giant Maersk suspended all transits through the Red Sea on 5 January, after implementing a temporary pause on 31 December. Germany's Hapag-Lloyd will also continue to divert vessels away from the Suez Canal, with plans to reassess the situation on 15 January. Trade around the Cape of Good Hope was 67pc higher in the second half of December, while trade through the Bab el-Mandeb strait was about 50pc lower on the year for cargo ships, according to data from the IMF's PortWatch.
