Turkey’s appliance sales drop in 2023 on lower exports

Market: Petrochemicals
01/02/24

Sales of white goods produced by major production base Turkey fell in 2023, Turkish white goods manufacturers association (Turkbesd) said.

Total sales were around 33mn units, down by 4.1pc year on year, while production fell by 1.4pc to 32.4mn units. Within that, exports fell to 23.2mn units, down by 10pc in 2023 compared with a year earlier. This drop was partially offset by a 14.4pc year on year increase in domestic sales to 9.5mn units.

The white goods sector is a key demand channel for isocyanates into rigid foams for the manufacture of appliances.

Turkbesd's sales figures include the six main product categories of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, dryers, dishwashers and ovens.

By Laura Tovey-Fall

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

30/12/24

Viewpoint: rPET demand robust but challenges persist

London, 30 December (Argus) — Europe's plastics recycling market will be supported by legislation and voluntary recycled content commitment goals in 2025. But lower costs for virgin polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin and competitive imports will likely weigh on the sector. Recycled PET (rPET) is a plastic made from recycled bottles, containers and PET waste, and is the material most commonly used by packaging manufacturers to help meet their sustainability goals. New EU legislation should provide a stable level of demand for the recycling industry in 2025, with the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) coming into effect on 1 January. The directive mandates collection and recycling targets for all member states, requiring PET beverage bottles to have a minimum recycled content of 25pc. But there are some uncertainties that undermine the security the legalisation was intended to provide. The SUPD mandates recycled goals at member state level, and so the responsibility to purchase and use rPET at a premium to virgin PET resin has not yet been passed down to individual companies. Some pushback from market participants in the value chain, which will bear the burden of the premium cost for recycled content, is anticipated. Another issue is that the penalties for member states not meeting the set targets have yet to be communicated. The impact of the SUPD will not be fully felt in Europe's rPET market until the consequences for not reaching goals are clarified and systems such as extended producer responsibility schemes are implemented to ensure equal compliance. This is unlikely to be before the second half of 2026 at the earliest. Although many large companies and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands have already set voluntarily recycled content targets for beverage bottles that go above and beyond the SUPD requirements, the recycling market is under pressure from wider economic concerns. A recovery in consumer packaging demand in 2024 has not been enough to prevent some brands from switching to lower-cost virgin PET resin, a dynamic that is expected to continue throughout 2025. Meanwhile, some brands have omitted 2025 targets from their sustainability reports and have scaled back their ambitions. . Availability of high-quality PET bale, likely to be used in food grade applications, has tightened towards the end of 2024 and could tighten further at the beginning of the new year, supporting prices in the first quarter when collection volumes are seasonally at their lowest. Demand from preform and packaging manufactures should return for the peak season of packaging consumption from March onwards, but market participants expect it to be lower than originally projected for 2025. Recyclers are well stocked and, in some cases, oversupplied with flake and food grade pellet volumes as a result of low demand throughout 2024. There is likely to be some pressure on flake and food grade prices in the first quarter and margins for recyclers may continue to be slim. Converters and packaging companies closely monitored inventory levels throughout 2024, purchasing on a hand-to-mouth basis. If end use consumer demand is stronger than expected over the peak summer season, flake and food grade prices may find support as market participants restock, allowing recyclers to regain some margin. But European recyclers continue to be concerned about competitive imports, with many calling for a level playing field . Market participants are worried that if demand picks up and the market begins to tighten, imports offered at significant discounts to European material will undercut recyclers and again weigh on European prices and recycler margins. Although the outlook for 2025 is uncertain for recyclers, there is some quiet optimism. It will be a year of transition and adjustment as the market adapts to the legislative changes and tries to mitigate the challenges endured over the past few years. By Chloe Kinner Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Viewpoint: Consolidation looms in US methanol

27/12/24

News

27/12/24

Viewpoint: Consolidation looms in US methanol

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — The sale of Netherlands-based OCI's methanol production assets to rival producer Methanex is set to shift the market, with US methanol production most affected by the move. Methanex in the third quarter of 2024 announced the $2bn acquisition, which is expected to close in the first half of 2025. The boards of directors of both companies and OCI's shareholders approved the transaction, but it is subject to regulatory approvals. OCI operates the 1mn t/yr OCI Beaumont plant and is a 50:50 partner in Natgasoline, a 1.7mn t/yr joint-venture plant between OCI and Proman. Methanex operates three plants in the US, all in Geismar, Louisiana. These plants carry a collective 4mn t/yr capacity and represent one-third of total US methanol capacity. At front and center of the acquisition is the Natgasoline plant in Beaumont. Natgasoline, when operational, represents 14pc of domestic production. The plant opened in 2018, and throughout those six years, the plant has seen its share of operational issues. The most recent was a fire at the reformer unit in early October, resulting in a complete shutdown lasting nearly three months. When the deal was announced, Methanex made it clear that the transaction was subject to approvals by OCI shareholders, as well as a pending legal decision between OCI and Proman. "If it is not settled within a certain period, Methanex has the option to carve out the purchase of the Natgasoline joint venture and close only on the remainder of the transaction," the company said in September. Methanex and OCI declined to give further details, as the deal is still pending. Proman did not respond to a request for comment. If it goes through, the acquisition would result in the exodus of OCI from the US methanol market. But the issue of liquidity in the US spot barge market is also looming. Market participants said OCI is a frequent buyer when the Natgasoline plant goes down. In October, when Natgasoline was completely shut down, 340,000 bl of methanol moved for delivery at ITC, the terminal on the Houston Ship Channel where methanol is exchanged, according to Argus data. Market participants expect liquidity to be about the same until some time after the deal closes. When a plant goes down, a producer will emerge in the spot market for purchases. In the longer term, there are some questions around international distribution and where US methanol exports find a home. Methanex is a major exporter to Asia, whereas OCI sells into the European market. The low-carbon methanol sector will also experience some shakeup. OCI is a major participant in the bio-methanol space, selling volume into Europe. Methanex produces carbon-captured methanol, also known as blue methanol, which has not penetrated the EU market. By Steven McGinn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: PVC expansions loom over US market in 2025

27/12/24

News

27/12/24

Viewpoint: PVC expansions loom over US market in 2025

Houston, 27 December (Argus) — US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market participants expect some domestic demand growth in 2025, but recent expansions could limit price increases in both the domestic and export markets. Most producers are optimistic PVC demand will grow at a strong rate in 2025, with some expecting growth above 5pc. But producers also caution that greater volume sales may not translate into higher prices because of additional capacity brought on line in the second half of 2024. Formosa added 130,000 metric tonnes (t) of PVC capacity to its Baton Rouge, Louisiana, plant in the third quarter, and Shintech added 380,000t/yr of PVC capacity to its Plaquemine, Louisiana, plant in the fourth quarter. Producers' concerns that higher sales volume would not translate into higher prices have proven true so far. Domestic PVC sales have grown as much as 8pc in the year through November, according to producers, but PVC contract prices in November were unchanged from January at 57.5¢/lb after some fluctuations during the year. Prices fell by 2¢/lb in the months following Formosa's expansion. Contracts for December, which will represent the month following Shintech's expansion, have not yet settled. Buyers have more muted expectations than producers for demand in 2025, further adding to the modest price outlook for the coming year. This is partly because many buyers believe interest rates that recently began to fall will take time to stimulate housing construction, potentially delaying a rise in PVC demand until late 2025 or even 2026. Lower interest rates can reduce homebuilders' borrowing costs and ease mortgage rates for prospective homebuyers. The cautious outlook was already pervasive among PVC buyers and converters before the US Federal Reserve in December reduced its forecast for 2025 interest rate cuts to half a percentage point, down from a full point in the September projections. Reliance on exports US producers may need to rely on exports to absorb the new capacity, a trend that has kept export prices low since August. US PVC export spot prices were at $700/t fas on average in late September after Formosa ramped up its capacity expansion, compared to an average of $750/t fas a year earlier. After Shintech's expansion, export prices fell to $673/t fas on average by late-December, compared to $695/t fas on average during the same time in 2023. While spot export prices initially had a floor of $670/t fas after both expansions, the global environment has become even more competitive at year-end with some overseas producers struggling to move volume, according to traders. A greater reliance on exports at a time when several countries recently implemented anti-dumping duties on US material could make for a difficult market in 2025, with pricing needing to come down to start the year if there is too much volume on hand, traders said. India recently announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on US PVC from 80-150pc, with duties exceeding $300/t for some US producers. Brazil in October raised import taxes on PVC from 12.6pc to 20pc. The European Commission last month confirmed duties on US-origin PVC between 58-71.2pc, and the UK is considering duties from 38.4-56pc. The Indian duties in particular could pose a challenge to US exporters because US producers and traders had become reliant on Indian customers as an outlet for US supply. India is one of the few countries for US exports with steady demand growth. Should US exporters lose market share in India, there are no immediate alternatives to offset that loss. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: US PGP prices set to rise in 2025

26/12/24

News

26/12/24

Viewpoint: US PGP prices set to rise in 2025

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US spot polymer-grade propylene (PGP) prices are likely to increase into 2025, driven largely by several planned limitations on supply. By mid-December, the US PGP market had the sharpest contango structure between the prompt month and the forward month since Argus began tracking data over 10 years ago. A contango is when the next month's price is higher than the current month's price. On 12 December, December-delivery PGP at the Enterprise Products Partners (EPC) system at Mont Belvieu, Texas, traded at 35.75¢/lb, while January-delivery PGP traded twice at 38.75¢/lb. Argus ' PGP forward curve shows prices rising to over 40¢/lb by the second quarter of next year. Many factors are behind this record 3¢/lb premium for January PGP and the continued increase into mid-year. The first is that spot prices have dipped to their lowest levels since August 2023 on a rare period of no major supply disruption at propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, which produce on-purpose propylene. Most propylene production in the US comes as a byproduct from refineries or as a co-product from steam crackers. All four US Gulf coast PDH units have been operating without major incident or extended shutdown since the late summer. Since mid-August, only Enterprise's PDH-1 was shut, for two weeks in mid-October, but this was not enough to stop the downtrend in PGP's spot price. US spot PGP prices declined by 40pc from a 12 August near-term peak of 58¢/lb to a low of 35¢/lb on 9 December. A second major factor behind the market's sharp contango is that PGP supply is set to tighten in 2025. Propylene supply will have a structural reduction when LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d refinery in Houston begins shutting down units in January and completed closes by the end of the first quarter. The company sought to exit the refining business but could not find a buyer for the refinery, which produces 136,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr of propylene. There are no planned additions to US propylene capacity in 2025, and several US crackers that produce propylene as a co-product are set for turnarounds in the first quarter. Meanwhile, propylene demand is set to structurally rise in the second half of 2025, when Formosa's new 250,000 t/yr polypropylene plant in Point Comfort, Texas, is scheduled to come online. A third major factor indicating that US spot PGP prices in December are the lowest they will be for at least several months is seasonality. One market participant said that spot activity to end 2024 is largely characterized by sellers destocking inventory ahead of the state of Texas' ad valorem taxes on inventories. This tends to cause seasonally lower prices in December and then a rise in prices in January as the market restocks inventory. This trend has persisted for the last four straight years. These three major factors — uninterrupted supply to end 2024, supply tightening in 2025, and seasonal buying patterns — all stand behind the sharpest contango into the next year for propylene in 10 years of record keeping. The forward curve for PGP indicates a rise of 5¢/lb between now and the middle of next year. The forward curve, though, does not account for any unplanned shutdowns of PDH units, which happen frequently as PDH units are operationally less reliable than propylene-producing crackers and refineries. In July, the US had three of its four PDH units shut down, taking 2.9mn t/yr of on-purpose propylene capacity offline. Such incidents could spike prices for PGP above the uptrend expected into next year. By Michael Camarda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: US BD demand awaits 1Q rebound as risks loom

24/12/24

News

24/12/24

Viewpoint: US BD demand awaits 1Q rebound as risks loom

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — US demand for butadiene (BD) is expected to increase in January, but buyer sentiment for the remainder of the first quarter remains uncertain. Inventory restocking in January is expected to draw down excess supply and provide near-term price support, according to market participants. Derivative manufacturers aim to rebuild inventories following earlier-than-normal destocking initiatives this year. Many buyers employ standard inventory control management strategies to avoid paying higher end-of-year inventory taxes, particularly in Texas. Others cut costs to improve year-end financial statements. Domestic demand in February and March is less clear, as market participants question whether the market will rebound from persistently low demand at the end of 2024. US BD prices on a contract basis fell by 12pc during the fourth quarter , owing to weak demand and oversupply. Demand was depressed by BD consumer turnarounds in October, seasonal slowdowns between November-December and trade pressures tied to derivative imports. US tire shipments this year are expected to rise by 2.1pc to 338.9mn units, surpassing the record set in 2021, according to the US Tire Manufacturers Association. However, market participants along with US trade data reference a jump in tire imports from Asia-Pacific. Both Bridgestone and Goodyear have said low-cost tire imports and structural changes in segment profitability across the Americas are eroding their market share, fueling capacity rationalization, asset sell-offs and plant closures in the region. Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) is another segment at risk of stronger competition from low-cost, Asia-origin imports. Ineos Styrolution plans to permanently shut down its ABS plant in Addyston, Ohio, in 2025 because the facility cannot compete with imported material. "Over the past few years, we have seen the ABS market become increasingly competitive, particularly with growing competition from overseas imports," Ineos Styrolution chief executive Steve Harrington said in late October. Protectionist trade policies are likely to be a feature of president-elect Donald Trump's second administration, potentially altering business investment decisions and durable goods trade flows. Even if demand does not improve, planned maintenance in the first half of 2025 is expected to tighten BD supplies. A heavy turnaround cycle for steam crackers will concentrate in the first and second quarters, constraining availability of feedstock crude C4. One integrated US Gulf coast producer plans to enforce BD allocations while its assets are offline for planned maintenance. A separate, non-integrated producer has not announced BD sales controls, based on feedback from its customers. This same BD supplier was short on feedstock supplies for parts of this year, with the crude C4 merchant market illiquid in North America. A third producer has scheduled a cracker turnaround starting in January, but no indications emerged that would limit term volumes from its BD unit. Reduced BD supply during cracker maintenance is likely to pull volumes away from the export market until the second half of 2025. Export spot cargoes in the fourth quarter more than doubled from the third quarter, serving as a critical outlet to clear the domestic market of surplus BD supplies, even as lower export prices pressured US margins. By Joshua Himelfarb Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more