Zeebrugge LNG sendout falls on weaker German demand

Market: Natural gas
13/02/24

Sendout from Belgium's 11.4mn t/yr Zeebrugge LNG facility is on track to fall to its lowest for any month since December 2021, and less supply could transit the country eastwards as more LNG import capacity comes on line in Germany.

Belgian sendout was 194 GWh/d on 1-12 February, below 381 GWh/d over the period a year earlier and on track to be the lowest for any month since December 2021 (see graph). Regasification was already low in January considering that the country's consumption rose to a new record for any month. Sendout was 279 GWh/d last month down from 379 GWh/d a year earlier, but high-calorie gas demand soared to 600 GWh/d — a new record for the country — as demand from households and small businesses also set an all-time monthly high.

Dutch demand for supply via Belgium has collapsed over the past month with Belgium importing supply from the Netherlands in January for the first time since December 2021. And net exports towards the Netherlands from Belgium were just 7 GWh/d on 1-12 February, down from 141 GWh/d a year earlier.

Strong withdrawals from storage and weaker exports towards the Czech Republic and Switzerland have limited German demand for supply transiting via Belgium or the Netherlands. Pipeline exports from the Netherlands to Germany were 343 GWh/d so far this month, below 465 GWh/d a year earlier. And flows of 268 GWh/d in January were the lowest for any month since June 2022.

German imports from Belgium also slipped to 468 GWh/d on 1 January-12 February from 693 GWh/d a year earlier.

The slower imports from northwest Europe have been offset by reduced transit through Germany and quicker withdrawals from storage on the year. German exports to the Czech Republic slipped to 89 GWh/d on 1 January-12 February from 215 GWh/d over the period a year earlier. And exports to Switzerland at Wallbach also slowed to 50 GWh/d from 172 GWh/d a year earlier. In contrast, the German stockdraw has stepped up to 1.1 TWh/d from 992 GWh/d, offsetting a slight increase in consumption on the year.

Quicker German sendout to limit Belgian, Dutch transit

Stronger LNG sendout availability in Germany could continue to reduce demand for supply to transit eastwards via Belgium and the Netherlands in the coming months.

The roll-out of LNG import infrastructure in Germany from December 2022 has weighed on demand for supply via Belgium and the Netherlands over the past year. German sendout rose to 198 GWh/d on 1 January-12 February from 123 GWh/d a year earlier. And a tripling of LNG import capacity by mid-2024 could further reduce the demand for supply via Belgium and the Netherlands (see table).

The floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) for Germany's 5.8mn t/yr Stade and 3.1mn t/yr Wilhelmshaven 2 facilities are due to arrive at the end of the first and second quarters, respectively, state-owned terminal operator DET told Argus late last month. Sendout from the 1.6mn t/yr Brunsbuttel terminal is due to rise from April before stepping up again in May-October, when sea water is warm enough to aid the regasification process.

And sendout availability will also be initially boosted by the arrival of the 174,000m³ Transgas Power FSRU, which is scheduled to arrive in Mukran port this winter, before being joined by the same-sized Neptune FSRU. The Neptune will be repositioned from Lubmin where it is operating at present. Arrivals of new FSRUs will considerably increase German import capacity to around 31mn t/yr by the middle of 2024 from 11.4mn t/yr at present.

By Auguste Breteau

German LNG capacity additions			mn t/yr
Terminal	Capacity	Start date	Notes

Presently operating
Brunsbuttel	1.6	Mar-23
Wilhelmshaven 1	5.8	Dec-22
Deutsche Ostsee phase 1	4.0	Jan-23
Total	11.4
Target by year-end
Brunsbuttel	5.8	Feb-23	Increased grid connection
Wilhelmshaven 1	5.8	Dec-22
Deutsche Ostsee phase 2	10.5	Jul-24	Additional FSRU
Stade	5.8	Mar-24
Wilhelmshaven 2	3.1	Jun-24
Total	31.0

Belgian LNG sendout steps down GWh/d

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