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GREET guidance still a few weeks out: USDA

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Biomass, E-fuels, Electricity, Emissions
  • 01/03/24

Final language of a new emissions measurement model that US agencies will use is still "a few weeks" out from being approved by the Treasury department, Department of Agriculture (USDA) secretary Tom Vilsack said today at an industry event.

The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) emissions measuring model was supposed to be released by 1 March, according to a December announcement. But that guidance will need more time, Vilsack said today at the annual Commodity Classic agriculture conference in Houston, Texas.

Vilsack emphasized it would take weeks — not months — for the final announcement, but confirmed the model would be used by the Treasury department in determining life-cycle emissions of ethanol-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

The Renewable Fuels Association, an industry group, called on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to quickly finalize the GREET model.

"While we are pleased to hear progress is being made on the modified GREET model, we are disappointed by this additional delay," RFA resident Geoff Cooper said in a statement.


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17/04/25

Canada grants tariff relief to automakers

Canada grants tariff relief to automakers

Pittsburgh, 17 April (Argus) — The Canadian government will allow automakers to circumvent retaliatory tariffs to continue importing US-assembled vehicles if the companies keep making cars in Canada. Canada began taxing imports of US-made vehicles and parts on 9 April at a 25pc rate in response to a similar tariff the US had implemented. Canada's tariff on vehicle imports from the US will not apply to car companies that keep their Canadian plants running, the country's finance minister said this week. The measure attempts to prevent closures of auto plants and layoffs in the Canadian automotive sector that the US tariffs threaten to cause. Automaker Stellantis paused production at its Windsor, Ontario, assembly plant in early April to evaluate the US tariff on vehicle imports. The plant will re-open on 22 April, Stellantis said. General Motors also plans to reduce production of its electric delivery fan at its Ingersoll, Ontario plant. The slowdown will result in layoffs of 500 workers, the Unifor union said. The automotive industry in the US, Canada and Mexico has struggled to adapt its supply chains to the new tariffs because the US, Canada Mexico free trade agreement (USMCA) and its predecessor helped establish an interconnected North American auto sector. In another measure, companies in Canada will get a six-month reprieve from tariffs on imports from the US used in manufacturing, food and beverage packaging. The six-month relief also applies to items Canada imports from the US used in the health care, public safety and national security sectors. "We're giving Canadian companies and entities more time to adjust their supply chains and become less dependent on US suppliers," finance minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said in a statement. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs


17/04/25
News
17/04/25

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — Economic growth projections set for release next week will include "notable markdowns" caused by higher US tariffs that have been disrupting trade and stressing financial markets, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said today. The IMF earlier this month warned that the tariffs that President Donald Trump was placing on trading partners could pose a "significant risk" to the global economy. Those higher trade barriers are on track to reduce growth, raise prices for consumers and create incremental costs related to uncertainty, the IMF plans to say in its World Economic Outlook on 22 April. "Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession," Georgieva said Thursday in a speech previewing the outlook. "We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries." Trump has already placed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most trading partners, with higher tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico, a 145pc tariff on China, and an exception for most energy imports. Those tariffs — combined with Trump's on-again, off-again threats to impose far higher tariffs — have been fueling uncertainty for businesses and trading partners. The recent tariff "increases, pauses, escalations and exemption" will likely have significant consequences for the global economy, Georgieva said, resulting in a postponement of investment decisions, ships at sea not knowing where to sail, precautionary savings and more volatile financial markets. Higher tariffs will cause an upfront hit to economic growth, she said, and could cause a shift in trade under which some sectors could be "flooded by cheap imports" while other sectors face shortages. The IMF has yet to release its latest growth projections. But in January, IMF expected global growth would hold steady at 3.3pc this year with lower inflation. The IMF at the time had forecast the US economy would grow by 2.7pc, with 1pc growth in Europe and 4.5pc growth in China. The upcoming markdown in growth projections from the IMF aligns with analyses from many banks and economists. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on 16 April said the recent increase in tariffs were likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth". Those comments appear to have infuriated Trump, who has wanted Powell to cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating growth in the US. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!" Trump wrote today on social media. Powell's term as chair does not end until May 2026. Under a longstanding US Supreme Court case called Humphrey's Executor , Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally fire commissioners at independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump has already done so at other agencies such as the US Federal Trade Commission, creating a potential avenue to overturn the decision. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts


17/04/25
News
17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Vietnam wood pellet output capacity to rise: Correction


17/04/25
News
17/04/25

Vietnam wood pellet output capacity to rise: Correction

Corrects capacity in table Singapore, 17 April (Argus) — Vietnamese wood pellet producers are building new pellet mills and manufacturing facilities to increase production capacity this year to meet an anticipated increase in demand from Japan. Producers such as Uniexport — Vietnam's biggest wood pellet producer — and Tam Sen have planned expansion projects, the firms told Argus , and the country could add around 800,000 t/yr of production capacity by the end of 2026, with at least half of this likely to be developed by the end of 2025. The additional capacity would cater for Japanese utility demand, in line with the country's growth in generation capacity. Japan's biomass-fired capacity rose by over 500MW in 2024, and additions of around 700MW are expected for 2025. The simultaneous start-up of many plants could lead to logistical challenges at first. Vietnam has been unable to meet South Korean demand because of its shortage of wood pellets, exacerbated by rains and port congestions , that has prompted suppliers to focus on clearing backlog. The new lines will hence also help Vietnam to provide more supply to South Korea. Uniexport aims to complete most of its expansion projects, which are spread across the country and total 412,500 t/yr of wood pellets, by the fourth quarter of 2025. Uniexport has also planned to have an additional 315,000 t/yr of capacity by the end of 2026, with the overall expansion set to take its total production capacity to 1.46mn t/yr (see table) . The new plants will use varying types of feedstocks, such as sawdust from sawmills, and wood chips from lumber processing activities, depending on the location of the facility. Tam Sen aims to complete the construction of its new wood pellet mill in Binh Duong in southern Vietnam by September 2025. The wood pellet factory will have a 80,000 t/yr production capacity and will mainly use wood residue from sawmills as feedstock for pellet manufacturing, said Tam Sen's factory director, Mai Ly. The expansion will take its total production capacity to 380,000 t/yr. Meanwhile, Japanese energy company eRex has also started up the 150,000 t/yr Tuyen Quang pellet factory in northern Vietnam in March, with plans to build up to 20 wood pellet factories in the coming years. By Joshua Sim New pellet production capacity t Region of Vietnam Plant Location Operational Annual supply capacity Estimated capacity 2025 2026 Central UNE Gia Lai Gia Lai 1Q2025 150,000 150,000 150,000 HDV Daklak M'Drak Daklak 4Q2025 150,000 37,500 150,000 Southern Unifor Renewables Vung Tau 4Q2025 120,000 30,000 120,000 Northern UNE Phu Tho Phu Tho 1Q2025 120,000 120,000 120,000 UNE Nghi Son Thanh Hoa 3Q2025 150,000 75,000 150,000 UNE Bac Giang Bac Giang 4Q2026 150,000 - 37,500 Sub-total 412,500 727,500 Source: Uniexport Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s Mitsui invests in US e-fuel producer


17/04/25
News
17/04/25

Japan’s Mitsui invests in US e-fuel producer

Tokyo, 17 April (Argus) — Japanese trading company Mitsui has invested in California-based synthetic fuel (e-fuel) producer Infinium, aiming to acquire knowledge on technology and commercialisation in the emerging sector. The investment in Infinium was conducted in March, Mitsui told Argus on 16 April, declining to disclose the specific amount. This marks Mitsui's second investment in e-fuel producers. The firm invested in California-based synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) producer Twelve Benefit . Infinium produces green hydrogen from water by electrolysis, and converts the hydrogen and CO2 into e-fuels by using renewable energy. The firm is planning to launch its second plant, which will specialise in e-SAF production. International Airlines Group (IAG) and American Airlines have agreed to receive the e-SAF that will be produced at the plant. E-fuels can help reduce over 90pc of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with conventional fossil fuels, and are notable as "drop-in" substitutes for conventional fuels, applicable to existing engines and infrastructures, Mitsui said. Mitsui is observing the e-SAF market. SAF is a relatively promising prospect in the renewable energy sector, on the back of the target by the UN's International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to achieve net-zero emissions in international aviation by 2050, as well as governmental policies bolstering the deployment of SAF, a representative of the firm told Argus . Japan plans to replace 10pc of the jet fuel consumed by domestic airlines with SAF in 2030. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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