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Collaboration key to green shipping corridors: APM

  • Market: Biofuels, Oil products
  • 14/03/24

Collaboration between countries and stakeholders willing to find sustainable decarbonisation solutions is key to the success of green shipping corridors, said speakers at the Asia Pacific Maritime (APM) 2024 conference in Singapore.

Singapore has initiated green shipping corridors with the aim of helping energy transition in the maritime sector, said the assistant chief executive (industry and transformation) of the Maritime Port and Authority of Singapore Kenneth Lim, speaking at a keynote panel during the 13-15 March event. This follows the signing of an initial deal between Singapore and Australia on setting up the Green and Digital Shipping Corridor. There are an estimated 44 green shipping corridors that have been announced globally, most of which are at a planning stage.

The main deadlock to making green corridors operational remains, as it is unclear who will bear the burden of higher fuel costs, given the large price gap between conventional and alternative marine fuels, said the chief technology officer for energy and fuels at Denmark's Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Centre for Zero Carbon Shipping Torben Norgaard.

This gap can be filled either through a concept like the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance, a cargo owner-led alliance of major multinational companies working together to accelerate maritime shipping decarbonisation, or through regulation to allocate increased costs, such as putting a price on carbon.

The green corridors that have moved ahead the most are those where roles and responsibilities including cost allocation are clear and there is trust between stakeholders, such as in the EU, Norgaard added.

"Right now green corridors are primarily in the initiation and planning stages with operational green corridors on the horizon," said the head of decarbonisation at the UK-based Sustainable Shipping Initiative Andreea Miu. "Getting to that stage will depend on stakeholders working together to make concrete investments to enable the corridor."

Developing bunkering infrastructure, building or retrofitting vessels that can run on the chosen alternative fuels, along with the training of seafarers in the handling of new fuels, are some of the initiatives that the investments should be aimed at, Miu added.

But more importantly it is a "coalition of the willing who are willing and able to work together and operate in a very specific economy where they avoid too much interference", that is needed to enable the green shipping corridors, Norgaard said.

Looking ahead

The green corridors could help shipowners as fuel selection also remains a key hurdle, with unresolved safety concerns over alternative fuels like ammonia, APM panelists added.

It is important to consider how the volumetric energy density of alternative fuels is "way less" than that in fossil fuels, which would result in shipowners having to decide between carrying more fuel or bunkering more, and looking for more locations where they can bunker, said the chief technology officer of the Singapore-based Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation Sanjay Kuttan.

The next "super corridor for green fuels" could emerge between south India and east China's Ningbo/Zhoushan, where the two countries' collective 3bn population will create significant demand for vessels to do transshipments there, Sanjay said


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23/12/24

Viewpoint: European HVO demand to rise in 2025

Viewpoint: European HVO demand to rise in 2025

London, 23 December (Argus) — European demand for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), or renewable diesel, will be supported in 2025 by a combination of higher mandates for the use of renewables in transport, and by changes to EU member state regulations on the carryover of renewable fuels tickets, like in Germany and the Netherlands . European HVO production could grow by more than 400,000t in 2025, if announced projects are completed in time. Most new plants have the flexibility to switch to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, in the form of hydrotreated esters and fatty acids synthesised paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK). But those seeking to import HVO into the EU will face barriers. Definitive EU anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese biodiesel and HVO will be imposed by mid-February , and anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties are already in place for HVO and biodiesel of US and Canadian origin . Flows of US-origin HVO to the UK are unimpeded as transposed EU duties were removed in 2022 . A clean slate... Against a headwind of gradually shrinking diesel demand, national transport renewables mandates are increasing. These ambitions rise again under the next iteration of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), for which member states face a May 2025 transposition deadline. Optimism in the biofuels markets will be tempered by experiences in 2024. The low value of renewable fuel tickets — tradeable credits generated primarily by the sale of biofuel-blended fuels — in major European demand centres has weighed on supplier appetite for physical biofuels. This includes the relatively expensive HVO that can be blended in much greater volumes than cheaper fatty acid methyl esters (Fame). A portion of these tradeable tickets can usually be carried over from one obligation year to the next — as was done from 2023-24 — extending pressure on physical biofuel demand. But Germany has approved a law removing the option for companies to carry over excess 2024 greenhouse gas (GHG) certificates through both 2025 and 2026, aimed at resetting the outlook for physical renewables demand. Obligated parties will need start from scratch to meet their annual GHG savings targets — at 10.6pc for 2025 and 12.1pc for 2026 — resulting in greater demand for physical biofuels including HVO. In the Netherlands, the tickets carryover will be reduced from 25pc to 10pc for companies with an annual blending obligation. ...follows volatility Prompt HVO assessments firmed significantly late in 2024 — albeit from long-term lows — driven by short-term demand in the Netherlands at a time of tight regional supply. HVO (Class II) fob ARA range, a European benchmark based on HVO produced from used cooking oil (UCO), peaked at $1,500/m³ as a premium to escalated gasoil by 14 November — or a 122pc increase from the start of October — equating to $2,652.91/t on an outright basis. Assessments then fell back to a $860/m³ premium a week later, when the market rebalanced as suppliers looked to reroute prompt volumes. Before the rise, prices had hovered around historically soft levels for a sustained period. Sweden's decision to slash its GHG emissions mandate for the 2024-26 period due to fuel price concerns, and the low ticket prices have kept a lid on values. The HVO (Class II) outright price averaged around $1,625/t over 1 January-31 October 2024, down by around $580/t compared with the same period of 2023. While fundamentals now point to growth in European HVO use, the futures curve is backwardated. Those in the market may yet take a position that aligns with this viewpoint, but recent volatility has stunted forward trade. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z


23/12/24
News
23/12/24

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

New York, 23 December (Argus) — A Republican-controlled Congress will decide the fate next year of a federal incentive for low-carbon fuels, setting the stage for a lobbying battle that could make or break existing investment plans. The 45Z tax credit, which offers greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions, is poised to kick off in January. Biofuel output has boomed during President Joe Biden's term, driven in large part by west coast refiners retrofitting facilities to process lower-carbon fats and oils into renewable diesel. The 45Z tax credit, created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), was designed to extend that growth. But Republicans will soon control Washington. President-elect Donald Trump has dismissed the IRA as the "Green New Scam", and Republicans on Capitol Hill, who had no role in passing Biden's signature climate legislation, are keen to cut climate spending to offset the steep cost of extending tax cuts from Trump's first term. Biofuels support is a less likely target for repeal than other climate policies, energy lobbyists say. But Republicans have already requested input on 45Z, signaling openness to changes. Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process, which enables them to avoid a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, to extend tax breaks that are scheduled to expire in 2025. "I want to place our industry in a place to make sure that the biofuels tax credit is part of reconciliation," said Kailee Tkacz Buller, president of the National Oilseed Processors Association. But lawmakers "could punt the biofuels discussion if stakeholders aren't aligned." A decade ago, biofuel policy was a simple tug-of-war between the oil and agriculture industries. Now many refiners formerly critical of the Renewable Fuel Standard produce ethanol and advanced biofuels themselves. And the increasingly diverse biofuels industry could complicate efforts to present a united front to Congress. Farm groups worry about carbon intensity scoring hurting crop demand and have lobbied to curtail record-high feedstock imports, to the chagrin of some biorefineries. Those producers are no monolith either: Biodiesel plants often rely more on local vegetable oils, while ethanol producers insist on keeping incentives that do not discriminate by fuel type and some oil majors would back subsidizing fuels co-processed with petroleum. Add airlines into the picture, which want greater incentives for aviation fuels, and marketers frustrated by 45Z shifting subsidies away from blenders — and the threat of fractious negotiations next year becomes clear. There are options for potential compromise, according to an Argus analysis of comments submitted privately to Republicans in the House of Representatives, as well as interviews with energy lobbyists and tax experts. The industry, frustrated by the Biden administration's delays in clarifying 45Z's rules, might welcome legislative changes that limit regulatory discretion regardless of what agency guidance eventually says. And lobbyists have floated various ways to appease agriculture groups without kneecapping biorefineries reliant on imports, including adding domestic content bonuses, imposing stricter requirements for Chinese-origin used cooking oil, and giving preference to close trading partners. Granted, unanimity among lobbyists is hardly a priority for Republican tax-writers. Reaching any consensus in the restive caucus, with just a handful of votes to spare in the House, will be difficult enough. "These types of bills always come to down to what's the most you can do before you start losing enough votes to pass it," said Jeff Navin, cofounder of the clean energy advocacy firm Boundary Stone Partners and a former House and Senate staffer. "Because they can only lose a couple of votes, there's not much more beyond that." And the caucus's goal of cutting spending makes an industry-wide goal — extending the 45Z credit into the 2030s — even more challenging. "It is a hard sell to get the extension right away," said Paul Winters, director of public affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America. Climate costs Cost concerns also make less likely a simple return to the long-running blenders credit, which offered $1/USG across the board to biomass-based diesel. The US Joint Committee on Taxation in 2022 scored the two-year blenders extension at $5.5bn, while pegging three years of 45Z at less than $3bn. An inconvenient reality for Republicans skeptical of climate change is that 45Z's throttling of subsidies based on carbon intensity makes it more budget-friendly. Lawmakers have other reasons to not ignore emissions. Policies elsewhere, including California's low-carbon fuel standard and Europe's alternative jet fuel mandates, increasingly prioritize sustainability. The US deviating from that focus federally could leave producers with contradictory incentives, making it harder to turn a profit. And companies that have already sunk funds into reducing emissions — such as ethanol producers with heavy investments in carbon capture — want their reward. Incentives with bipartisan buy-in are likely more durable over the long run too. Next time Democrats control Washington, liberals may be more willing to scrap a credit they see as padding the profits of agribusiness — but less so if they see it as helping the US decarbonize. By Cole Martin Tax credit changes 40A Blenders Tax Credit 45Z Producers Tax Credit $1/USG Up to $1/USG for road fuels and up to $1.75/USG for aviation fuels depending on carbon intensity For domestic fuel blenders For domestic fuel producers Imported fuel eligible Imported fuel not eligible Exclusively for biomass-based diesel Fuels that produce no more than 50kg CO2e/mmBTU are eligible Feedstock-agnostic Carbon intensity scoring incentivizes waste over crop feedstocks Co-processed fuels ineligible Co-processed fuels ineligible Administratively simple Requires federal guidance on how to calculate carbon intensities for different feedstocks and fuel pathways Expiring after 2024 Lasts from 2025 through 2027 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German heating oil demand dips, diesel stocks reduced


23/12/24
News
23/12/24

German heating oil demand dips, diesel stocks reduced

Hamburg, 23 December (Argus) — Heating oil consumers in Germany are refraining from purchasing because of high inventories, while importers are lowering their diesel stocks to maintain low bio-blended reserves. Reported volumes of heating oil traded to Argus fell by nearly 35pc last week. Consumers see little need to increase their stocks that, although they have steadily declined, remain higher than the same period in 2023 at 59.6pc, Argus MDX data show. Heating oil traded at about €1.50/100l higher than the previous week, further deterring consumers from last-minute purchases ahead of the Christmas holiday. Importers are striving to keep their diesel stocks minimal until the year's end. Obligated parties will be unable to use any surplus greenhouse gas (GHG) certificates from previous years in 2025 and 2026, so importers that have already met their obligations this year are eager to avoid generating more certificates until January. As a result, demand is low for diesel imports into Germany's northern ports and to storage facilities along the Rhine river. Northern Germany experienced a significant drop in imports in December to the lowest since September, Vortexa data show. But importers and barge operators are preparing for increased import activity in early 2025 to replenish their biodiesel inventories as quickly as possible. Suppliers at the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery in Bavaria are experiencing low stocks, primarily as a result of heightened demand in early December when buyers were active before an increased CO2 levy and the GHG quota take effect on 1 January. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures


23/12/24
News
23/12/24

Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures

London, 23 December (Argus) — Another tranche of European refining capacity will close for good next year, but the reprieve for margins in the region may only be temporary. Nearly 400,000 b/d of capacity, around 3pc of Europe's total, is scheduled for permanent closure in 2025, comprising Petroineos' 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, Shell's 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in Germany and a third of the capacity at BP's nearby 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery . Around 30 refineries have closed in Europe since 2000. Among the most recent was Italian firm Eni's 84,000 b/d Livorno refinery in northern Italy earlier this year. And only this month, trading firm Gunvor announced it is mothballing its small upgrading refinery in Rotterdam . The Rotterdam facility had already stopped processing crude in 2020, leaving it peculiarly exposed to the margins between intermediate feedstocks and finished fuels. The refinery has been hit by a 25pc increase in operating costs in the last four years and a squeeze on margins, the latter the result of competition from new refineries outside the region, Gunvor said. Outside Europe, the world has added more than 2.5mn b/d of crude distillation capacity in the last three years. Three brand new refineries have come on stream in the Middle East in that time — Saudi Arabia's 400,000 b/d Jizan, Kuwait's 615,000 b/d Al-Zour with Oman's 230,000 b/d Duqm refineries. More recently, Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, Mexico's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and Yulong Petrochemical's 400,000 b/d refinery in China's Shandong province started up, all of which are likely to ramp up throughput in 2025. Refinery closures tend to support margins for those that remain. But European refiners' costs continue to rise while demand for their products falls, which means next year's closures are unlikely to be the last. Simpler and smaller refineries are prime candidates for closure as they usually achieve weaker margins. Europe also has plenty of refineries built before 1950 that are still running. These older plants can be more at risk of accidents and breakdowns. And repairs can sometimes cost so much that they tip a refinery into the red. An ongoing concern for European refiners is the trend towards lighter and sweeter crude slates , driven by supply-side dynamics, which is resulting in higher naphtha yields at a time when demand for naphtha from Europe's petrochemical sector is under pressure from a contraction in cracking capacity. But many in the market expect the greatest pressure in 2025 will fall on those coastal refineries in Europe that were built to maximise gasoline output. If, as expected, Dangote continues to shrink Nigeria's demand for gasoline imports , these refineries will be hit hardest. Any refinery that cannot desulphurise all of its gasoline output to the 10ppm required for UK or EU usage will be under intense pressure, as west Africa is presently among the only outlets for European high-sulphur gasoline. Strike support One of the strongest supports for European refining margins in 2025 could come in the form of industrial action if new capacity cuts or closures were to be announced. Refinery workers in the region have shown willing and able in the past to organise large-scale strikes, most emphatically in France. The highest diesel refining margins Argus has ever recorded came in October 2022, when the entire French refining system was shut down by strikes. Another trend to watch out for next year is the continuing shift in the ownership structure of Europe's refining sector. The large integrated oil companies that have dominated the industry for so long have been steadily selling European refining assets to independents and trading firms. The latter are nimbler and able to cut costs more ruthlessly. And with many of them not publicly listed, they are less susceptible to pressure regarding their environmental footprints. There could be more instalments in this story in 2025. Sweden's Preem started accepting bids for its Swedish refining assets in the summer of 2024 and Russia's Lukoil is considering bids for its Burgas refinery in Bulgaria. By Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Shell and Prax call off deal on German refinery stake


20/12/24
News
20/12/24

Shell and Prax call off deal on German refinery stake

Hamburg, 20 December (Argus) — Shell's planned sale of its 37.5pc stake in Germany's 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery to UK energy firm Prax has fallen through. "Both parties have taken the decision not to proceed with the transaction," Prax said, without elaborating. The refinery will continue to operate as normal, it said. Shell said the companies had reached the end of an agreed timeframe for closing the deal. It said it is still looking to sell the stake. The deal with Prax, which was announced a year ago , was initially due to be completed in the first half of 2024. Shell owns its stake in Schwedt through the PCK joint venture, which also includes Italy's Eni and Rosneft Deutschland, one of the Russian firm's two German subsidiaries. Shell previously attempted to sell its PCK share to Austria-based Alcmene in 2021 but that deal failed to complete after Rosneft Deutschland exercised its pre-emption rights later that year. Rosneft was unable to buy the stake after the German government placed its two German subsidiaries under trust administration in 2022 in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, forcing Shell to seek an alternative buyer. In October, a court in Germany rejected a complaint by Rosneft Deutschland against Shell's plan to sell its PCK stake to Prax. By Svea Winter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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