Aramco chief decries 'fantasy' of phasing out oil

Market: Crude oil, Hydrogen
18/03/24

Oil and gas will remain the backbone of the global energy system for decades to come, state-controlled Saudi Aramco's chief executive Amin Nasser told CERAWeek by S&P Global conference.

Just a year ago, Nasser's UAE counterpart, Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber exhorted the oil industry leaders at CERAWeek to step up efforts to decarbonize their operations and the global energy system. But Nasser's message appears to have been received more warmly in Houston.

"We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them, adequately reflecting realistic demand assumptions," Nasser said, drawing a round of applause.

Conversations on energy transition are led by the advanced economies, ignoring the needs of emerging economies that have accounted for most of the growth in oil and gas demand, Nasser said.

The so-called "global south" accounts for the majority of the world's population and energy demand growth, but draws just a fraction of global investments in renewable capacity, Nasser said. "These nations cannot afford expensive energy solutions."

Despite the development of renewable alternatives, focusing on reducing emissions from hydrocarbons produces better results in cutting back greenhouse gas, Nasser said. Aramco itself plans an ambitious gas production growth, in part to reduce the use of oil in domestic power generation.

"The future of energy transition in Indonesia is gas," Indonesia's energy ministry director general Tutuka Ariadji told a different CERAWeek panel today.

Aramco is still keen to pursue hydrogen production agreements with partners in South Korea and Japan, but high costs are an issue, Nasser said. Aramco estimates the cost of producing hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture at oil-equivalent $200/bl, while renewable hydrogen production costs are oil-equivalent $400/bl, Nasser said. "Our partners, our customers, especially in Japan and Korea, are waiting for government incentives" before moving forward on those projects, he said.

By Haik Gugarats

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28/03/25

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton London, 28 March (Argus) — A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year. The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says. And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says. Blowing hot and coal Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says. But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation. Global energy suppy by fuel EJ Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 648 634 622 2.2 1.8 Renewables 97 92 89 5.8 3.1 Nuclear 31 30 29 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 149 145 144 2.7 0.7 Oil 193 192 188 0.8 1.9 Coal 177 175 172 1.2 2.0 Global power generation by fuel TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 Renewables 9,992 9,074 8,643 10.0 5.0 Nuclear 2,844 2,743 2,684 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 6,793 6,622 6,526 2.6 1.5 Oil 738 762 801 -3.2 -4.8 Coal 10,736 10,645 10,452 0.9 1.8 Global power generation by country TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 US 4,556 4,419 4,473 3.1 -1.2 EU 2,769 2,718 2,792 1.9 -2.6 China 10,205 9,564 8,947 6.7 6.9 India 2,059 1,958 1,814 5.2 7.9 Global CO2 emissions by country mn t Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 37,566 37,270 36,819 0.8 1.2 US 4,546 4,567 4,717 -0.5 -3.2 EU 2,401 2,455 2,683 -2.2 -8.5 China 12,603 12,552 12,013 0.4 4.5 India 2,987 2,836 2,691 5.3 5.4 *includes industrial process emissions — IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US H2 projects stall, incentives fall short: Technip

28/03/25

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28/03/25

US H2 projects stall, incentives fall short: Technip

London, 28 March (Argus) — Many US hydrogen project developers have paused or cancelled plans after finding costs were too high and government incentives were insufficient, even before President Donald Trump's return to the White House added uncertainty, Paris-listed contractor Technip Energies has said. Developers rushed to hire contractors for project studies in 2022-23 in a wave of optimism after the US announced tax credits for hydrogen production , but many projects were shelved or suspended between the end of 2023 and mid-2024. This came as companies realised the true cost of many items not limited to CO2 capture, hydrogen storage, and hydrogen liquefaction, Technip Energies' director Randy Kessler said. Multiple developers hired Technip for feasibility studies and engineering designs so it witnessed the drop-off in project plans first hand, Kessler said. Renewable hydrogen projects faced the most challenges, but gas-based projects with carbon capture and storage (CCS) "did not fare too well either", Kessler said. "Nearly all" renewable hydrogen projects were suspended when true capital and operating costs became known, especially compared with conventional 'grey' hydrogen, Kessler said. "Economics generally prevail in the long run, and at 5-8 times the cost of grey H2 production, most big players and project developers found out the incentives did not cover the gap," he said. Most of Technip Energies' clients pursuing CCS-enabled projects eventually asked for estimates for conventional grey hydrogen plants, with "pre-investment" to add CO2 capture units in the future, Kessler said. Washington made matters worse for developers with "confusing" incentives and delays in finalising eligibility rules for the tax credits, which it only settled on in early 2025 , just weeks before the change in administration. "The people who made money were the consultants who told people what it all meant," Kessler said. The late-2024 US election became both an "issue" and an "an excuse" for developers to explain the lack of progress, Kessler said. Many US firms complained that political uncertainty during the election period hampered their business decisions. Politically powerful energy companies lobbying Washington for "appropriate levels of incentives to cover the gap" or relaxing tax credit rules to lower project costs would be the most likely way to revive the sector, Kessler said. The US could consider setting mandates, but this is unlikely unless there is "more global buy-in", he said. Few regions, aside from the EU, have proposed mandates, and even there they have not been firmly implemented. But US firms and industrial groups are focusing lobbying efforts on protecting the hydrogen tax credits rather than quibbling over the rules, US sources said. The return of Trump to the White House made the future of the tax credits less certain because of his preference for boosting US fossil fuel output over investing in clean energy. Another contracting firm, Black & Veatch, recently said it was unsurprised to see many speculative projects fall by the wayside, and that the best route forward is better quality and modestly-sized projects with clear offtakers. By Aidan Lea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US mulls cutting funds to H2 hubs outside of GOP states

27/03/25

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27/03/25

US mulls cutting funds to H2 hubs outside of GOP states

Houston, 27 March (Argus) — The US Department of Energy (DOE) is considering cutting funding to hydrogen hubs that are located in primarily Democratic states, while sparing those mostly spread across Republican states, according to a list shared with Argus . A table circulating among officials shows hubs that are to receive federal funding labeled as either "cut" or "keep." Out of the seven hubs, only three are set to "keep": HyVelocity, in Texas and Louisiana, the Appalachian hub spanning Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia and the Heartland hub spread across Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota. The hubs that may lose federal support include California's ARCHES; the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Association (PNWH2) spanning Oregon, Washington and Montana; the Midwest hub encompassing Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, and the Mid-Atlantic hub in Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey. With the exception of the Midwest hub, most of the hubs facing potential cuts would use renewable and nuclear power to produce hydrogen. Most of the projects in the hubs on the "keep" list would be powered by natural gas and use carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities to reduce emissions. The DOE did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association (FCHEA) chief executive Frank Wolak said the list came from DOE but cautioned the department's plans are still unclear."We're aware a list has been created that shows four of seven hubs being cut," said Wolak. "We haven't seen anything formal and don't understand exactly what is the DOE intention." Hydrogen hub funding advanced by the administration of former president Joe Biden was expected to come under scrutiny after President Donald Trump paused disbursements and ordered a review of clean-energy initiatives. Federal funding for the hubs grew out of the bipartisan Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act, which together dedicated $8bn to jump start domestic hydrogen production in industrial clusters from the east to west coasts. The funding was structured to pay out to the hubs over four phases spanning a decade, with disbursements dependent upon projects meeting defined objectives related to operational progress and private-investment commitments. The first tranches to the seven hubs, totaling over $20mn, have been delivered but the list of potential cuts puts the fate of the second phase into doubt. "So far the Trump administration hasn't attempted to claw back that phase-one funding," said Sara Gersen, senior attorney for Earthjustice. "The question is, what happens in 2026 when they try to renew contracts for phase 2?" ARCHES chief executive Angelina Galiteva said the California hub "remains committed to working with our partners to establish a secure, reliable and competitive hydrogen ecosystem". Spokespeople for the others hubs vulnerable to losing federal funds did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, at least one of the hubs put out a public statement highlighting how its goals align with the administration's objectives. "Many of these opportunities will support rural communities" and "advance American energy independence", the Pacific Northwest hub said in a social media post. Environmental advocates argue that the climate benefits from hydrogen originating from natural gas with CCS, the technology proposed for projects on the "keep" list, evaporate when net emissions are taken into account and do not justify the potentially billions of dollars in federal support they may receive when compared to other decarbonization techniques. "Spending billions of dollars on untested carbon capture technology in applications with no net-climate benefit is a waste of taxpayer money," said Anika Juhn, IEEFA energy data analyst and co-author of the report Blue Hydrogen's Carbon Capture Boondogle . "Building out renewable power infrastructure, improving energy efficiency, and reducing methane leakage from the natural gas system are more cost-effective and proven approaches to a clean energy transition." For now, both fossil-fuel based and renewable energy companies have been lobbying the Trump administration to keep clean energy incentives enacted by the IRA without differentiating how the hydrogen is produced. The potential cut to federal funding is not expected to affect industry support for the most lucrative incentives that come in the form of tax cuts, such as the support that has coalesced around protecting the 45V hydrogen production credit, said Wolak. "I don't see any change to the agenda of 45V, that effort is primary," said Wolak. "I see an effort perhaps arising to define the hubs and the merit of the hubs rising parallel to the 45V effort." FCHEA is advising its members that may be affected by hub funding cuts to contact their congressional representatives, Wolak said. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Several countries have met fossil finance pledge: CSO

27/03/25

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27/03/25

Several countries have met fossil finance pledge: CSO

London, 27 March (Argus) — Two-thirds of "high-income" signatories that pledged to end public finance for international fossil fuels have policies in place that realise their commitment, civil society organisation (CSO) Oil Change International said today. Of the 17 "high-income" signatories, 11 are compliant, Oil Change found. They total ten developed countries — Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK — as well as EU development institution the European Investment Bank (EIB). The policy details vary, "but all put a complete halt to investments in new oil and gas extraction and LNG infrastructure", Oil Change said. The pledge referred to — the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) — was launched at the UN Cop 21 climate summit in 2021. It aims to shift international public finance "from the unabated fossil fuel energy sector to the clean energy transition". Signatories commit to ending new direct public support for overseas unabated fossil fuel projects within a year of joining. Other countries have updated policy to restrict fossil fuel financing abroad, but Oil Change has deemed them not in line with the pledge made. Belgium's policy "breaches the end-of-2022 deadline, allowing support for projects that have received promise of insurance by July 2022 into 2023", Oil Change said. The Netherlands allows some projects that requested support in 2022 to be approved in 2023, while there are "energy security exemptions and exemptions for some continued support in low-income countries", Oil Change said. The CSO assessed Germany's policy as containing a number of "major loopholes", including not ruling out public finance for gas infrastructure and gas-fired power plants. And it noted that Italy's policy for its export credit agency "allows fossil fuel finance to continue virtually unhindered". Germany has provided $1.5bn across 11 projects since the 2022 deadline passed, while Italy approved nearly $1.1bn for four projects in 2023, Oil Change said. Oil Change classed Switzerland's policy as "severely misaligned", while Portugal has not submitted a policy and the US has withdrawn from the agreement. The US provided $3.7bn for 12 international fossil fuel projects between end-2022 and end-2024, while it approved $4.7bn for the Mozambique LNG project after leaving the CETP. The CETP now has 40 signatories including five development banks and 35 countries. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

26/03/25

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26/03/25

Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

Adds details throughout Washington, 26 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose a 25pc tariff on foreign-made cars and trucks imported into the US, but said there will be no tariffs on automobiles assembled in the US. Trump said the new tariffs on imported automobiles marked the "beginning of Liberation Day", the term Trump has used to reference his plan to unveil sweeping tariffs on major foreign trade partners on 2 April. The White House estimates the tariff on imported cars and trucks will generate $100bn/yr in new tariff revenue. Trump said the auto tariff will go into effect on 2 April, providing a financial incentive for automakers to relocate manufacturing to the US. "We'll effectively be charging a 25pc tariff, but if you build your car in the United States, there's no tariff," Trump said in remarks at the White House. "And what that means is a lot of foreign car companies, a lot of companies, are going to be in great shape." The auto tariffs will likely add thousands of dollars to the price of many imported cars and trucks. But the tariffs — the details of which have yet to be released — appears more targeted than Trump's initial plan to impose a 25pc tariff on nearly all imports from Canada and Mexico, because the tariffs would not apply to cars and trucks parts, so long as the vehicles are assembled in the US. "Anybody that has plants in the United States it's going to be good for, in my opinion," Trump said. Ontario premier Doug Ford previously warned that Trump's plan to impose a nearly across-the-board import tariff could have caused auto manufacturing in the US and Canada to grind to a halt within as few as 10 days. Trump eventually delayed those tariffs until 2 April. Earlier this week, Trump said that South Korean automaker Hyundai's decision to invest $5.8bn to build a steel mill in Louisiana offered a blueprint for how companies could avoid tariffs. Trump has already imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, and earlier this week said he would announce tariffs on imported lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Even as a lack of details about the upcoming tariffs has fueled uncertainty for businesses and sharp declines on US stock markets, Trump has continued to announce additional tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said any country taking delivery of Venezuelan oil or gas would be "forced" to pay an incremental 25pc tariff on any goods imported in the US. US oil executives appear to be growing tired of Trump's chaotic trade policy, particularly his imposition of a 25pc tariff on imported steel that is used in drill pipes, executives said in a survey the US Federal Reserve of Dallas released Wednesday. The uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is causing "chaos", they said in the survey, and increasing their cost of capital. "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," an unnamed oil executive said in the survey. "We want more stability." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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