Australia’s ACCC forecasts slim gas surplus for Jul-Sep

Market: Natural gas
05/04/24

Australia's east coast gas market will likely experience a small surplus for this year's third quarter, forecasts the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), with Queensland state driving increased supplies in the country's largest domestic gas market.

The region, which includes four of Australia's five major state capitals, will have a 6PJ (160mn m³) surplus during July-September, according to the ACCC's March 2024 interim gas inquiry report, with 510PJ of supplies compared with 504PJ of demand. This is mainly because of Queensland's 30PJ surplus and accounting for the unlikely possibility that the state's three LNG projects export all uncontracted gas.

The July-September supply and demand balance is an 11PJ increase since the ACCC's December 2023 report when a 5PJ shortfall was projected. The 156PJ required in the east coast market for the quarter means it remains the highest demand period but is 11pc lower than actual demand in July-September 2023.

LNG export demand for third quarter of 2024 is predicted to have increased by 13PJ since December 2023 to 310PJ, despite the 7.8mn t/yr, two train Gladstone LNG taking the equivalent of half a train off line in early July and one full train off line in the second half of July and early August. This is likely because of lower scheduled downtime at the Shell-operated 8.5mn t/yr Queensland-Curtis LNG compared with 2023.

But the ACCC cautioned that the outlook is subject to some uncertainty in supplies and demand, pointing to February storms in Victoria state that saw coal-fired power outages that raised demand for gas-fired power generation. The report's forecast is largely reliant on a 13PJ lower demand for gas-fired generation in the quarter.

The southern states of Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania are forecast to experience a 25PJ gas shortfall, although demand should be met by a combination of capacity in storage and pipelines running south, the ACCC said.

The Bureau of Meteorology's (BoM) latest climate driver forecast indicates the El Nino weather pattern is decaying and neutral climate drivers are expected by May. While four of seven international models are predicting a La Nina, which brings colder, wetter weather to east Australia, by the end of the southern winter, early autumn predictions are historically the least accurate, the BoM said on 2 April.

By Tom Major

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