News
03/04/25
Most US ferts imports to be tariffed, potash exempt
London, 3 April (Argus) — Nearly every country that sends fertilizer products to
the US will be hit with fresh import duties after President Donald Trump
yesterday announced reciprocal tariff policies that are likely to increase
nutrient prices in the US. According to the White House administration, a
baseline 10pc tariff will be imposed on all goods from all countries imported
into the US excluding those compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement
(USMCA). Non-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods will continue to be charged at
a 25pc rate, although potash that is deemed to be non-compliant will pay a
reduced rate of 10pc. Imports of goods from other nations will begin paying the
baseline 10pc rate on 5 April, while roughly 60 countries were given more
specific reciprocal tariff rates based on the rates those countries have placed
on US goods. The US imports a significant amount of fertilizer products from
other countries to supplement limited domestic production capabilities.
Non-North American countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Israel,
Tunisia, Australia and Trinidad and Tobago are well known names in the
fertilizer market as major producers that ship a large amount of product to the
US. Under the new sweeping tariff policy Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Trinidad and
Tobago and Australia can expect a 10pc duty on all imports sent to the US, while
Israel can expect a 17pc duty and Jordan will face a 20pc duty. A 28pc tariff
will be applied to imports from Tunisia. Russia is also a major supplier of
fertilizers to the US and a reciprocal tariff does not apply to the country. But
there is uncertainty as to whether Russia is exempt from the universal 10pc rate
applied to other countries. Phosphates Countervailing duties largely blocking
Russian and Moroccan phosphates have enabled Saudi Arabia to grow its share of
US DAP/MAP imports to 45pc in 2024, according to GTT data. They also opened the
door to non-traditional suppliers including Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, which
together accounted for 21pc of US DAP/MAP imports last year. Australia has been
a regular supplier to the US, averaging 9pc of imports over the past five years
— although this fell to 4pc in 2024. The base 10pc tariff applied to Morocco
will add to the countervailing duties in place and act as more of a deterrent.
Still, customs data show that 10pc of DAP/MAP imports came from Morocco last
year. Mexico supplied 318,000t of DAP/MAP to the US last year, accounting for
14pc of total imports. But the 25pc tariff imposed a month ago will probably
stifle this trade flow. MAP barge prices in the US are currently equivalent to
the mid-$660s/t cfr Nola. Latest MAP sales to Brazil were at $660/t cfr but
indications are now reaching $680/t cfr. After these latest tariffs come into
effect on 5 April, US buyers will have to pay more to secure phosphate supply,
otherwise cargoes will be drawn to more attractive markets, such as Latin
America. Potassium-based products, phos rock escape tariffs The White House also
confirmed in an annex that some goods will be exempt from these latest tariffs
including certain critical minerals. Goods that will be spared include a number
of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium
sulphate. Trump last month included potash in the administration's list of
American critical minerals, and ordered the US government to fast-track permit
reviews for critical minerals projects . The majority of the US' MOP supply is
imported, with 98pc/yr coming from other countries, and 85pc of that from
Canada, according to TFI data. The US typically imports 11mn-13mn t/yr of MOP,
although GTT data show that the US imported close to 14mn t of MOP in 2024.
USMCA still effective Tariffs on North American countries Mexico and Canada will
continue within the status quo of an executive order issued in early March. All
products covered under the USMCA free trade agreement will continue to be
imported into the US without tariffs. USMCA compliant products include wholly
created goods in Mexico or Canada, such as sulphur, MOP, ammonia and other
nitrogen fertilizers, but goods produced with inputs that come from other
countries, such as phosphate fertilizers manufactured in Mexico, are at greater
risk of being tariffed, depending on how rules of origin outlined in the USMCA
are enforced. Phosphate fertilizers produced in Mexico use imported phosphate
rock as well as some imported ammonia, while the same products manufactured in
Canada, for example, use domestically produced rock. The US fertilizer market is
currently barrelling towards the final weeks of the spring application season,
where nutrients are put into the ground as crop planting continues. Therefore
most fertilizer purchasing for the spring has now taken place. But with the new
tariffs applying to the majority of nutrient imports into the US, domestic
prices and barge trade activity could accelerate above the norm as the market
scurries to secure product before prices move to even more unfavourable levels.
By Taylor Zavala, Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson New US import tariffs Send
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