Ukraine's 2024-25 wheat output forecast to fall

Market: Agriculture
18/04/24

Argus forecasts that Ukraine's wheat production in the 2024-25 marketing year (July-June) may decline to less than 20mn t because of lower planting acreages.

Argus revised down Ukraine's wheat output to 19.93mn t in the next season, from 20.16mn t projected in November and 22.4mn t forecast for the 2023-24 marketing year. This is also well below the five-year average of 25.87mn t.

The decreased production is the results of revised harvested areas, which are now estimated at 4.37mn hectares (ha) for 2024-25, down from November's forecast of 4.55mn ha and the current season's level of about 4.70mn ha.

At the same time, Argus increased its average wheat yield forecast for Ukraine in the 2024-25 season to 4.56 t/ha, up from 4.43 t/ha in the November report, based on the latest analysis of crop conditions from its annual crop tour. This is also up from the five-year average of 4.26 t/ha.

According to the latest crop tour report, nearly all regions of the country have had good precipitation since the November report, enabling crops to enter winter in good stages of development. And a good precipitation forecast in the second half of April is set to improve the crop.

Ukraine's agriculture ministry this week released its preliminary projections for grain and oilseeds production in 2024-25, with the country's wheat output forecast at 19.2mn t. At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service projected Ukraine's wheat output in the coming season at 21.1mn t.

By Alexey Yeromin

Ukraine wheat production mn t

Ukraine wheat yields t/ha

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