Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will continue to grow in most major markets this year, but at a slower rate, the IEA says. Global EV sales are due to top 17mn, more than a fifth of total global vehicle sales, but growth is expected to slow on 2023 in major markets. Almost 14mn new EVs were registered last year, up by 35pc on 2022, with 95pc of EV sales in China, Europe and the US. China will account for over half of global EV sales this year, with sales growing by 25pc on the year in 2024, passing 10mn for the first time. Under the IEA's stated policies scenario, EVs make up half of all car sales by 2035, reducing oil demand by 10mn b/d.
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Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts
Australia's Coalition eyes power, resource funding cuts
Sydney, 2 May (Argus) — Australia's federal Coalition opposition has announced it will cut key energy rebates and resource sector subsidies, if elected on 3 May, to reduce forecast future budget deficits. The Peter Dutton-led opposition will cut programs, including the Labor government's A$20bn ($12.8bn) Rewiring the Nation transmission plan, and the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund aimed at underwriting green manufacturing using domestic minerals. It will also unwind electric vehicle tax concessions to save A$3.2bn, and cancel planned production tax credits for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen estimated to cost A$14.7bn. Combined savings measures will improve the budget's position by A$13.9bn over the four years to 2028-29, the Coalition said on 1 May, cutting debt by A$40bn during the same timeframe. The announcement comes as opinion polls show Australia's next federal government is likely to force one of the two major parties into minority, after a campaign where cost-of-living relief promises have trumped economic reform policy. The centre-left Labor party is more likely than the conservative Coalition to form government at the 3 May poll. It holds a thin majority of just three seats in parliament's main chamber, the House of Representatives, meaning a swing against it would force it to deal with minor parties such as the Greens and independent groupings. Promising a stable government, as Australia emerged from Covid-19, Labor had benefited from a resources boom as Russia's invasion of Ukraine led LNG and coal receipts to skyrocket and China's emergence from lockdowns revitalised its demand for iron ore, which jointly form the nation's main commodity exports. But as markets adjust to a period of protectionist trade policy and predictions of a slowdown in global growth abound, economists have criticised the major parties' reluctance to embrace major reform on areas such as taxation, while continuing to spend at elevated levels post-pandemic. Australia's resource and energy commodity exports are forecast to fall to A$387bn in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025 from A$415bn in 2023–24. The Office of the Chief Economist is predicting further falls over the next five years, reaching A$343bn in 2029-30, lowering expected government revenue from company tax and royalties. Gas The Coalition has pledged a domestic reservation scheme for the east coast, forcing 50-100PJ (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) into the grid by penalising spot LNG cargoes. Australia's upstream lobby has opposed this, but rapidly declining reserves offshore Victoria state mean gas may need to be imported to the nation's south, depending on the success of electrification efforts and an uncertain timeline for coal-fired power retirements. Labor has resisted such further gas interventions , but it is unclear how it will reverse a trend of rising gas prices and diminishing domestic supply, despite releasing a future gas plan last year. The party is promising 82pc renewables nationally by 2030, meaning it will have to nearly double the 2025 year-to-date figure of 42pc. This could require 15GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050 to firm the grid. On environmental policy, narrowing polls mean Labor's likely partners in government could be the anti-fossil fuel Greens and climate-focused independents — just some of the present crossbench of 16 out of a parliament of 151. The crossbench may drive a climate trigger requirement in any changes to environmental assessments, which could rule out new or brownfield coal and gas projects. Coal has been conspicuously absent from policy debates, but Labor has criticised the Coalition's nuclear energy policy as expensive and unproven, while the Coalition has said Labor's renewables-led grid would be unstable and costly because of new transmission requirements. The impact of the US tariff shock that dominated opening days of the month-long election campaign remains unclear. Unlike Canada, Australia is yet to be directly targeted by US president Trump's rhetoric on trade balances and barriers. But the global unease that has set in could assist Labor's prime minister Anthony Albanese, as he presents an image of continuity in an uncertain world economy. Australia's main exposure to Trump tariffs is via China, its largest trading partner and destination for about 35pc of exports, including metal concentrates, ores, coal and LNG. A downturn in the world's largest manufacturer would spell difficult times ahead for Australia, as it grapples with balancing its budget in a normalising commodity market. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ukraine, US sign reconstruction deal
Ukraine, US sign reconstruction deal
London, 1 May (Argus) — The government of Ukraine has agreed a "reconstruction" deal with the US that will establish a fund to be filled with proceeds from new mineral extraction licenses. There are few firm details about how much money will be involved, or how any future extraction contracts will be structured. It appears to be the same agreement that came close to being signed in February , which collapsed after an awkward meeting in the White House between Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his US counterpart Donald Trump. Washington had pitched the deal in advance as providing stakes in Ukraine's mineral rights, as a form of repayment for past US support and a deterrence against future military incursions by Russia. There is no firm indication from either side that this is the case. Ukraine's economy minister Yulia Svyrydenko said today that 50pc of state budget revenues from new licences will flow into the fund, and the fund would then invest in projects in Ukraine itself. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the deal "allows the US to invest alongside Ukraine, to unlock Ukraine's growth assets, mobilise American talent, capital and governance standards", suggesting US companies will be involved in the new licenses. He said the fund will be established with the assistance of the US International Development Finance Corporation. Ukraine was eager to show the deal as a success. Svyrydenko said Kyiv will retain ownership of all resources, and "will decide where and what to extract." Neither does the agreement allow for privatisation of state-owned oil and gas company Ukrnafta or power company Energoatom, nor does it mention any debt obligation to the US, she said. The depth of Ukraine's resources are unclear. The country's geological survey shows deposits of 24 of the EU's list of critical minerals, including titanium, zirconium, graphite, and manganese, along with proven reserves of metals such as lithium, beryllium, rare earth elements and nickel. The IEA estimates Ukraine's oil reserves at more than 6.2bn bl and its gas reserves at 5.4 trillion m³, although it said Russia's annexation of Crimea means Kyiv no longer has access to "significant offshore gas resources". By Ben Winkley, John Gawthrop and James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Non-China automakers cut targets on BEV demand, tariffs
Non-China automakers cut targets on BEV demand, tariffs
London, 30 April (Argus) — Several non-Chinese automakers have retreated from ambitious 2025 targets after a bruising first quarter, as slowing battery electric vehicle (BEV) demand and escalating trade barriers forced widespread guidance suspensions and production cuts. German carmaker Mercedes-Benz Group led the pullback, withdrawing its full-year outlook today after US tariffs and weakening Chinese sales drove a 41pc drop in first-quarter earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) to €2.3bn ($2.5bn). Chief financial officer Harald Wilhelm warned that US import tariffs could erase 3 percentage points from automakers' profit margins, compounding pressure from delayed BEV adoption. Automaker Stellantis also suspended its 2025 guidance today, reporting a 9pc year-on-year drop in first-quarter sales and a 14pc fall in revenue owing to extended North American holiday shutdowns and disruptions as it electrifies more of its fleet. The firm halted production of Chinese partner Leapmotor's T03 BEV in Poland , citing EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, illustrating how trade barriers are impacting western joint ventures with Chinese automakers. Germany's Volkswagen Group has maintained its 2025 outlook but warned that margins would hit the lower end of its 5.5-6.5pc target after first-quarter pre-tax earnings slid by 40pc. The company faces two key challenges — falling demand in China, with a 17pc drop in first-quarter overall car sales in China, and underutilisation of capacity at its European BEV plants . VW Group's chief financial officer Arno Antlitz also acknowledged today that the company has cut its headcount in Germany by about 7,000 since late 2023 on a cost-cutting drive, and that its unchanged guidance does not reflect any impact from US tariffs. US automakers Ford and General Motors (GM) are similarly exposed. Back in February, Ford forecast a net loss of $5.5bn on its EV and software operations for 2025, roughly in line with 2024. This is in spite of an 82pc year-on-year jump in BEV sales in the first quarter — attributed to Tesla's drop in popularity and significant discounts on BEV models. GM suspended its guidance on Tuesday and halted share buybacks after a 6.6pc profit decline — fearing tariff spillovers in the face of a rare $45mn profit in China — despite a 94pc increase in first-quarter EV sales to 31,887 units. Better performing automakers also face a strain. German BMW's first-quarter BEV deliveries rose by 28pc globally, but overall sales fell by 1.4pc as a dip in China of 17.2pc offset gains elsewhere. South Korean automaker Hyundai Group's operating profit rose by 2pc year on year to $2.52bn in January-March, but global sales edged down by 0.6pc, bolstered only by US sales rising by 11pc as consumers rushed to buy vehicles ahead of car tariffs. Tariffs and EU CO2 targets add to pressure Automakers' guidance suspensions also reflect deeper structural pressures as trade barriers on cars and newly announced export controls on some heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium are rocking carefully calibrated supply chains. European automakers rely on Chinese battery materials and US-bound exports, leaving them exposed on two counts. At the same time, the EU's 2025 CO2 rules — requiring a 15pc cut in fleet emissions from 2021 levels — are forcing carmakers to sell BEVs at a loss, according to industry body the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, although clean energy think-tank Transport & Environment disputes this . BEV sales so far this year have risen owing to these targets, despite profitability issues, with a 28pc rise across Europe in the first quarter . Chinese-owned carmakers have faced fewer constraints, although they have retreated from selling BEVs into Europe ( see graph ) after tariffs imposed on Chinese-made EVs last year. Chinese automaker BYD's first-quarter BEV sales surged by 39pc to 416,000 units — beating rival Tesla's 332,000 units — aided by domestic subsidies and tariff-absorbing strategies such as hybrid exports and European production. And China's Geely's Holding Group delivered 483,372 EVs — up by 83pc on the year — making up 49pc of its overall sales, while China's state-owned SAIC delivered 433,000 units, up by 33pc on the year, using the UK assembly of its MG brand to bypass trade barriers. Sweden's Volvo has withdrawn its guidance for 2025 and 2026 after a 59pc drop in first-quarter operating profits, prompting an 18bn kronor ($1.8bn) cost-cutting programme. By Chris Welch Chinese carmakers' west Europe monthly new car sales pc Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China's Easpring builds lithium CAM facility in Finland
China's Easpring builds lithium CAM facility in Finland
Beijing, 30 April (Argus) — Major Chinese lithium-ion battery cathode active material (CAM) producer Beijing Easpring Material Technology has started building a CAM production plant in Kotka in southeast Finland, to meet demand from European customers. Easpring formed subsidiary Easpring Finland New Materials with state-owned Finnish Minerals (FMG) and its wholly-owned subsidiary Finnish Battery Chemicals (FBC), in which Beijing Easpring holds 70pc and FMG with 30pc. The joint venture will take charge of building and operating Easpring's European new material production base. The total investment of the project is approximately €800mn ($703mn) and the overall planned CAM capacity is 500,000 t/yr, including 200,000 t/yr of lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese-oxide (NCM) and 300,000 t/yr of lithium-ion-phosphate (LFP)/lithium-ferromanganese-phosphate (LMFP). The first phase has a capacity of 60,000 t/yr of NCM. More details, including the construction schedules and launch date, were undisclosed. "The facility will not only meet the growing global demand for high-quality CAM, but also set new standards for sustainability and innovation in the battery industry," said Easpring's chairperson Chen Yanbin. "The groundbreaking of the Kotka plant is a significant milestone in strengthening the battery CAM production capabilities in Europe." "The beginning of the plant construction is an important step in developing the Finnish battery value chain," said Finnish Minerals' chief executive officer Matti Hietanen. "At the same time, it helps Europe produce the materials required for the electrification of transport." Major battery manufacturers LG Chem, Samsung, SKI and CATL have been expanding their capacities by building lithium-ion battery production plants in Poland, Hungary and Germany in recent years. NCM, LFP and lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) are Easpring's main products. The firm's total CAM output surged by 70pc from a year earlier to 103,401t in 2024, including NCM, LFP and LCO. The firm has established partnerships with SK On, LGES, Samsung SDI and secured feedstocks from CNGR, Huayou Cobalt, GEM, Citic Guoan, and Albemarle. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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