Canada’s TMX pipeline ready to move crude: Update

Market: Crude oil
30/04/24

Adds regulatory approvals received.

Canada's 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) crude pipeline can now start moving volumes to the Pacific coast after receiving final regulatory approvals today, more than a decade after the project was first conceived.

The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) approved Trans Mountain's final applications on Tuesday, giving the midstream company a green light to put its C$34bn ($25bn) project into service. Trans Mountain had recently maintained its commitment to being ready by 1 May.

The expansion nearly triples the existing 300,000 b/d Trans Mountain line that runs from Edmonton, Alberta, to Burnaby, British Columbia. Also expanded was the Westridge Marine Terminal from one dock to three, all capable of loading Aframax-sized vessels.

The line will provide Canadian oil sands producers with a significant export outlet without having to first go through the US. Much of the new volume to flow on TMX is expected to be heavy sour crude.

Federally-owned Trans Mountain had submitted applications as recent as 15 April for the final section of the pipeline about 140 kilometers (87 miles) east of the line's terminus in Burnaby.

The final applications concerned piping, valves and other components at two pipeline inspection device traps and the mainline pipe between the two traps. The traps were added for safety assurance when the operator was allowed by CER to use a smaller diameter pipe as part of the Mountain 3 deviation.

Mountain 3 was the last segment of the pipeline to be constructed because of delays relating to difficult terrain while tunneling.

The "golden weld" marking the end of construction occurred on 11 April, according to Trans Mountain.

A group of shippers last week expressed concern that TMX would not be ready for commercial service by 1 May.

The pipeline had been marred by legal challenges and cost over-runs since it was first proposed in 2013 by its then-owner US midstream firm Kinder Morgan. The Canadian government took ownership of it in 2018.

By Brett Holmes

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03/05/25

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

03/05/25

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03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

02/05/25

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02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ producers meet on 3 May to decide whether to repeat last month's surprise move to add extra oil to an increasingly weak market. The main motivation for the group of eight's decision to triple the size of their output increase for May remains, suggesting that a repeat could be on the cards for June. As the dust began to settle on last month's decision, it became clear that raising their combined output target by 411,000 b/d in one month, rather than the scheduled 137,000 b/d, was rooted not only in stronger fundamentals, as the official communique suggests, but also in a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets. The main culprits are Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently failed to keep their production in check since the start of last year (see graph). The two are left with a lot to do by way of compensating for those excess barrels between now and the middle of next year (see graph). Russia, too, has overproduced during that period, but to a much lesser degree relative to its overall output. That persistent overproduction has been a source of deep frustration among other countries in the group of eight — principally the core of Opec's Mideast Gulf members — that have "sacrificed", in the words of one delegate, to adhere to their targets. April's decision was a nod to those that have sacrificed and a sharp warning to Kazakhstan and Iraq to do better and to do so quickly. Two delegates stressed to Argus at the time that the coming weeks would be critical for Baghdad and Astana to show that they were serious about abiding by their quotas. Failure to do so could trigger another "surprise" move for June, they said, possibly even another three-in-one hike. It was little surprise, then, that some ill-timed comments by Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov on 23 April — in which he explicitly said Astana's national interests take priority over its Opec+ commitments, and that the country simply "cannot" reduce output — triggered serious speculation about whether the eight may repeat last month's decision. March data from Iraq, too, were not ideal, in that while they showed that Iraq did produce below quota, its efforts to compensate fell well short. Timing is everything Some in the group of eight may well be tempted to go down that route, thinking a second consecutive "shock" could deliver the desired wake-up call that the first did not. Two delegate sources confirmed to Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. But such a course of action would be risky. Crude is already trading $12/bl below where it was when the group last met, and demand-side concerns are again on the rise because of the potential impact of US trade tariffs. The Opec secretariat and the IEA downgraded 2025 oil demand growth forecasts in their latest oil market outlooks. Opec revised its forecast down to 1.3mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d in its previous report. The IEA revised down its forecast by a sizeable 310,000 b/d to 730,000 b/d for 2025, despite "robust" consumption in the first quarter. It downgraded its forecast for April-December by 400,000 b/d. Another three-in-one hike for June would be "difficult" to imagine in this market, one delegate says. With that said, the eight's options include a "standard" 137,000 b/d rise to the group's collective target for June, in line with the original schedule, or, at a push, a two-in-one hike. That would not only send that internal message to the least compliant of the group, but also act as a show of good faith towards US president Donald Trump ahead of his visit to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha on 13-16 May. By Nader Itayim, Bachar Halabi and Aydin Calik Opec+ overproducers Opec+ compensation plan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO

02/05/25

News

02/05/25

Chevron has not discussed Kazakhstan Opec+ target: CEO

London, 2 May (Argus) — Chevron has not held discussions with Kazakhstan about the country's Opec+ targets, chief executive Mike Wirth said today. Kazakhstan's production surged to a record 1.79mn b/d in March , following the start up of a new project at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January. This left the country 322,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 1.468mn b/d for the month. Kazakhstan has repeatedly vowed to comply with its Opec+ commitments, and said it would ask foreign operators at its Tengiz and Kashagan fields to reduce output. "We don't engage in discussions about Opec or Opec+ targets," Wirth said on Chevron's first-quarter earnings call today. "The barrels we produce at [Tengiz] are of high value to the government, they're important to their fiscal balance and historically those barrels have not been curtailed." Tengiz production was 901,000 b/d in March, compared with around 600,000-660,000 b/d before the new project came online. Italy's Eni, which is a key partner at the 400,000 b/d Kashagan field, made similar remarks last week. "Neither the operator of the asset, nor the shareholder and the contracting company have been engaged by the authority for any production cuts," said Eni's chief financial officer Francesco Gattei. Kazakhstan is one of the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers, and there has been no indication that it has tried to reduce output in line with its targets. Kazakhstan's continued overproduction is understood to have contributed towards the decision by eight Opec+ members to add extra crude to the market in May . The eight will meet on 3 May to decide on production levels for June. Two delegate sources told Argus that another 411,000 b/d target increase for June remains a distinct possibility. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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