Biomethanol market slows, but shipowners eye offtakes

Market: Biofuels, E-fuels
16/05/24

The UK's biomethanol consumption fell by 37pc last year as competition from alternative renewable fuel compliance options weighed on demand.

The UK consumed 40mn litres of biomethanol in 2023, down from 63mn l in 2022, 53mn l in 2021 and 48mn l in 2020, according to provisional data from the country's Department for Transport.

Biomethanol is used as a blending component for gasoline in the UK. Market participants attribute the decline in demand to ample supply of competitively priced alternatives to meet the UK's mandate for the use of renewable fuels in the transport sector.

Fob ARA range biodiesel prices fell to a 19-month low towards the end of 2023, following an unusually large influx of supply to Europe from China since the start of the year. EU biodiesel imports from China reached a record 1.06mn t in 2023, up from 557,000t in 2022, according to GTT data.

The increase in imports contributed to lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets, including the UK. Companies supplying biofuels for transport in the UK can generate renewable transport fuel certificates (RTFCs), which are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet the UK's renewables' mandate. The Argus UK non-crop RTFC reduction obligation price averaged 21.79 pence/RTFC in 2023, compared with 36.35p in 2022. The price has averaged 16.79p so far this year, compared with 26.40p and 37.39p in the same period in 2023 and 2022, respectively.

The drop in demand for biomethanol from the UK transport sector is weighing on domestic prices. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price has averaged $1,081.43/t so far in May, having been on a consistent downward trend since late October when the price peaked at $1,205/t. The price averaged $1,212.75/t in May 2023.

The slowdown in demand has put biomethanol production margins under pressure, prompting some producers to cut output.

Silver lining

Demand for renewable methanol, in the form of both biomethanol and e-methanol, could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector in the coming years as shipowners seek to reduce their emssions. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation is due to come into effect at the start of next year. It aims to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of marine fuels by 2pc in 2025 and by 80pc by 2050.

Shipping companies can choose from a wide range of alternative marine fuels to reduce their emissions, but several are betting on methanol and renewable methanol. Danish shipping giant Maersk has ordered 24 methanol-powered container ships for delivery and commissioning during 2024-25, and Japanese classification society ClassNK said in a recent report that it expects a total of 77 methanol-ready ships to be ordered by 2026, up from 27 methanol newbuilds expected to be ordered this year.

Offtake agreements for renewable methanol are also on the rise. Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biometanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor, Proman and OCI Global. The company also said it has secured an agreement with Danish shipping and logistics company Goldwind for the offtake of 500,000 t/yr from 2024. Meanwhile, Singaporean container shipping group X-Press Feeders said last year that it will offtake biomethanol from OCI's Texas plant starting this year.

Another spanner in the works?

Although the outlook on renewable methanol demand from the shipping sector appears bright, the recognition of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels produced through mass balancing in non-EU grids is uncertain.

More than 40 energy companies and institutes have sent joint letters to the European Commission asking for these products to be included in the Union Database, which aims to prevent the relabelling of biofuels' sustainability declaration.

The UDB was launched in January 2024 for liquid fuels and will include gaseous fuels in November, but the commission plans to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels if it is transported through gas grids outside of the EU.

The measure "is likely to reduce the availability and increase the cost of low- and zero-carbon bunker fuels for shipping" and may also impact hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels, one of the letters sent to the commission said.

By Evelina Lungu

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

09/05/25

EU consults on tariffs for €95bn US imports

Brussels, 9 May (Argus) — The European Commission is consulting on an extensive list, worth €95bn ($107bn), of US industrial, agricultural and other imports that could be subject to tariff countermeasures. The long list includes extends from livestock, biofuels, wood pellets to metals, aircraft, tankers and polymers . The consultation runs until midday on 10 June. It is aimed at stakeholders affected by US measures and possible EU rebalancing measures. Also considered for possible countermeasures are restrictions, worth €4.4bn, on EU exports to the US of steel, iron and aluminium scrap, as well as toluidines, alcoholic solutions and enzymes (CN codes 7204, 7602, 292143, 330210 and 350790). The commission linked the possible new measures to US universal tariffs and to Washington's specific tariffs on cars and car parts. The commission said the public consultation is a necessary procedural step. It does not automatically result in countermeasures. The EU also launched a WTO dispute procedure against the US for Washington's universal tariffs, set at 20pc for EU goods and currently paused at 10pc, and at 25pc on all imports of vehicles and car parts. The commission will need approval by EU governments under a simplified legislative procedure. Officials say this will complete a legal act for the countermeasures, making them "ready to use" if talks with the US do not produce a "satisfactory" result. The list of products potentially targeted includes livestock, along with items ranging from spectacles to antiques. The 218-page list includes a range of agricultural and food products including oats, maize, and cereal pellets. Also included are biodiesel and wood pellets (CN codes 38260010, 44013100), as well as paper and cotton products. Aluminium, iron, steel are listed together with a wide range of other goods from gas turbines, ships propellers and blades, aircraft, sea-going tankers and other vessels. Polymers, copolymers, polyesters and other products are not spared (CN codes 39039090 and more). On 10 April, the EU paused its reciprocal tariffs against the US for 90 days, responding to a US pause. The EU notes that €379bn, or 70pc, of the bloc's exports to the US are currently subject to new or paused tariffs. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

HSFO defies the green tide

08/05/25

News

08/05/25

HSFO defies the green tide

New York, 8 May (Argus) — High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization. The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use. Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO. In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months. Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend. While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight. By Stefka Wechsler Selected ports marine fuel demand t % Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24 1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 Singapore HSFO 1.0% 33,160.0 4,898,372.0 4,865,212.0 VLSFO/ULSFO -13.0% -1,005,951.0 6,829,667.0 7,835,618.0 MGO/MDO -5.0% -49,012.0 907,874.0 956,886.0 biofuel blends 187.0% 237,552.0 364,418.0 126,866.0 LNG 34.0% 25,935.0 101,856.0 75,921.0 Rotterdam HSFO 1.0% 11,169.0 829,197.0 818,028.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 14.0% 118,670.0 976,249.0 857,579.0 MGO/MDO 3.0% 9,662.0 393,071.0 383,409.0 biofuel blends -60.0% -158,597.0 104,037.0 262,634.0 LNG 7.0% 7.0 104.0 97.0 Panama HSFO 22.0% 65,266.0 362,388.0 297,122.0 VLSFO/ULSFO 25.0% 177,296.0 878,776.0 701,480.0 MGO/MDO 22.0% 27,097.0 150,980.0 123,883.0 — Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Bangchak tests runs at Thai SAF plant before 3Q launch

08/05/25

News

08/05/25

Bangchak tests runs at Thai SAF plant before 3Q launch

Singapore, 8 May (Argus) — Thai energy group Bangchak is conducting test runs at its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Bangkok before likely starting regular production in the third quarter, sources close to the company said. The plant, which is also the country's first SAF plant, will have an initial production capacity of 1mn litres/d. It will mainly consume ISCC-certified used cooking oil (UCO) as feedstock for SAF production via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway. Other feedstocks could also be explored in the future, company sources said. The plant will also produce byproducts such as bio-LPG and bionaphtha. Its SAF production process was developed in collaboration with Belgian biofuels processing technology company Desmet, which provided feedstock pre-treatment technologies, and US technology firm UOP Honeywell, a pioneer in hydroprocessing systems, according to Bangchak. Thailand is currently considering the introduction of a SAF mandate at a 1pc blend rate from 2026, with proposals to increase this to 3pc in 2030 and 8pc by 2037. But firm details on implementation mechanisms have yet to be announced. Thailand's board of investment in January approved corporate tax exemptions for SAF producers and investors in the country for a period ranging over 3-8 years. Bangchak has already secured offtake for some of its initial production volumes. The firm last year entered an agreement with oil major Shell's Singapore-based subsidiary to supply SAF from its plant. Bangchak also previously signed another supply agreement with Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil in December 2023, but volumes are still under discussion, a company source said. The Argus fob Singapore SAF netback price has been on a downtrend since late last year, reaching a record lows of $1,668/t on 5 March, and also marking the lowest since Argus ' assessments started in November 2020. The price was at $1,682/t on 7 May. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

07/05/25

News

07/05/25

IMO GHG pricing falls short on green methanol, ammonia

New York, 7 May (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed global greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing mechanism might not drive significant uptake of green methanol and green ammonia by 2035, given current market prices. Despite introducing penalties on high-emission fuels use and tradable surplus credits for low-emission fuels, the mechanism does not sufficiently close the cost gap for green alternatives. Under the system, starting in 2028 ship operators will face a two-tier penalty: $100/t CO₂e for emissions between the base and direct GHG intensity limit, and $380/t CO₂e for those exceeding the looser base limit. These thresholds will tighten annually through 2035. Ship operators can earn tradable credits for overcompliance when their GHG emissions fall below the direct limit. Assuming a surplus CO₂e credit value of $72/t — mirroring April 2025's average EU emissions trading system price — green ammonia would earn about $215/t in surplus credits in 2028 (see chart) . This barely offsets its April spot price of $2,830/t VLSFO equivalent in northwest Europe. Bio-methanol would receive about $175/t in credits, offering minimal relief on its $2,318/t April spot price. Currently, unsubsidized northwest Europe bio-LNG sits mid-range among bunker fuel options under IMO's emissions framework. While more expensive than HSFO, grey LNG, and B30 bioblends, the bio-LNG is cheaper than B100 (pure used cooking oil methyl ester), green ammonia, and bio-methanol. To become cost-competitive with unsubsidized bio-LNG — priced at $1,185/t in April 2025 — green ammonia and bio-methanol prices would need to fall by 57pc and 49pc, respectively, to around $1,220/t VLSFOe and $1,180/t VLSFOe by 2028. Unless green fuel prices drop significantly or fossil fuel prices rise, the IMO's structure alone provides insufficient economic incentive to accelerate green ammonia and bio-methanol adoption at scale. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe, fuel prices plus IMO penalties and credits Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Germany doubts suspended HVO producer exists

06/05/25

News

06/05/25

Germany doubts suspended HVO producer exists

London, 6 May (Argus) — German regulators have said a producer of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) that has been using the country's Nabisy biomass registry may not exist. The federal office of agriculture and food (BLE) said an investigation begun in mid-April found that biofuels sustainability verification scheme ISCC withdrew the suspended user's certification on 8 January, excluding the operator from the scheme for 48 months because of "a lack of co-operation with the ISCC integrity programme". The BLE had suspended Nabisy access for the company, which had the ID EU-BM-13-SSt-10022652. The company was listed on its ISCC certificate as based in the UAE, and provided an address in Hong Kong for its audit, BLE said. Matching details provided by BLE with Argus research show the producer is likely to be EcoSolution, which said it was producing HVO from crude tall oil, used cooking oil (UCO) and spent bleaching earth oil. The company's audit was done by certification body Certi W Baltic on 5 September 2024, according to ISCC documentation. Argus could not locate a biofuels producer by the name of EcoSolution for comment. Argus asked Certi W Baltic and the ISCC for comment but did not receive responses by the time of publication. BLE said it was suspicious that the concerned producer booked all of its proof of sustainability (PoS) onto the Nabisy account of a supplier whose certification records show an address in the Netherlands. But that company's audit report shows the same Hong Kong address as EcoSolution. ISCC certification of the Dutch supplier remains active, but the BLE also has "considerable doubts" about that company's existence. ISCC audit records show AEY Trading received ISCC 'trader with storage' certification on the same day as EcoSolution, also from Certi W Baltic. Certi W's audit summary shows AEY received an on-site audit on 8 September from the same auditor as EcoSolution. Any PoS issued by the suspended producer, which had been temporarily frozen, have been unblocked and will remain valid based on the 'protection of confidence' principle laid out in the German biofuels sustainability ordinance, which protects buyers in the biofuels market. To delete affected PoS that have been sold to others, the BLE would need to prove the buyer was aware of any fraud in relation to the product purchased. In practice this is "almost impossible", according to German biofuels association VDB. "The protection of confidence principle has become a free pass for lack of due diligence and care," the association said. "Today, European biofuels market participants do not have to worry about any consequences if they buy cheap biofuels with dubious origin." VDB wants urgent reform of the corresponding part of legislation, to grant the BLE more power when it comes to revoking fraudulent sustainability paperwork. PoS that has been re-released into the market could comprise a large amount of HVO, possibly in the hundreds of thousands of tons, according to market participants. By Sophie Barthel and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more