China’s natural gas consumption to peak in 2040: CNOOC

Market: Natural gas
23/05/24

China's state-controlled CNOOC expects domestic natural gas consumption to peak at 700bn m³ in 2040, said CNOOC's senior economist Xie Xuguang at a liquefied fuel shipping conference in Chongqing over 22-24 May.

The conference was jointly organised by the China Shipowners' Association and Langfang International Pipeline Exhibition. CNOOC also estimated China's gas consumption to hit 410bn m³ in 2024.

These most recent projections are aligned with earlier estimates from fellow state-controlled CNPC's economic and technology research institute in Beijing, which forecast Chinese gas demand will rise by 24bn m³ in 2024 in its annual report published on 28 February.

International Gas Union's president Li Yalan expects natural gas consumption in China to hit 500bn m³ in 2030 and eventually 650bn m³ in 2040. And all above growth scenarios could in fact be further enhanced should gas prices remain at "reasonable" levels, she added.

She did not expand on the definition of "reasonable", but recent buying interest from mostly second-tier buyers in China hinted that the ideal target price considered acceptable for buyers in the country could be no higher than $9-9.50/mn Btu.

Current spot prices are still considered way out of reach for Chinese importers. The front half-month of the ANEA — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — was last assessed at $11.525/mn Btu on 23 May, $1/mn Btu higher from a week earlier.

Factors such as higher-than-average temperatures in northeast Asia, southeast Asia, south Europe and the US, and some remaining concerns over production outages in the Atlantic and Pacific basins have resulted in European gas hub prices strengthening and Asian spot prices also jumping higher as a result. This is despite higher-than-average inventories in traditional major importing countries such as Japan and South Korea, and expectations of higher nuclear availability in Japan and South Korea to weigh on gas-fired generation in the summer.

But traders have also pointed out that such higher prices may compel buyers in Asia to withdraw from the spot market, freezing out additional demand and eventually weighing on prices again.

China has continued to step up its LNG imports even as domestic gas production extended gains in April. The country imported more LNG in April as compared to in 2023, and imports even hit a record high in March.

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12/11/24

Cop: UN chief reiterates economic force of transition

London, 12 November (Argus) — "Doubling down on fossil fuels is absurd", given that solar and wind power are the cheapest forms of new electricity, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres told the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today. The "economic imperative is clearer and more compelling — with every renewables roll out, every innovation, and every price drop", Guterres added. Global investment in renewables and grids last year overtook the amount spent on fossil fuels for the first time, he noted. "The clean energy revolution is here. No group, no business and no government can stop it," Guterres said. Guterres and Simon Stiell, head of the UNFCCC — the UN's climate body — today both gestured to geopolitical challenges. Cop 29 is focused on climate finance — already a fraught topic — and environmental groups have expressed concern about the impact on climate action of Donald Trump's re-election . The UNFCCC process "is strong, it's robust and it will endure", Stiell said today. Guterres and Stiell also emphasised the financial implications of failing to cut emissions or address climate change. "The climate crisis is fast becoming an economy-killer", Stiell said. "Unless all countries can slash emissions deeply, every country and every household will be hammered even harder than they currently are," he added. The G20 group of countries should lead on emissions reduction, Guterres said. And both he — warning against "a tale of two transitions" — and Stiell called for action on climate finance. Countries must decide at Cop 29 on the next stage of a climate finance goal. Developed countries agreed to deliver $100bn/yr to developing countries over 2020-25, but agreement is yet to be reached on the next iteration. Guterres called for more concessional public finance, higher lending capacity for multilateral development banks (MDBs), greater transparency, and for "tapping innovative sources, particularly levies on shipping, aviation, and fossil fuel extraction. Polluters must pay", he said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Record Permian volumes lift US oil majors

11/11/24

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11/11/24

Record Permian volumes lift US oil majors

New York, 11 November (Argus) — ExxonMobil and Chevron are pumping record volumes from the prolific Permian shale basin, spurred on by efficiency gains that have helped drive US oil production to a record high, just as Opec+ gears up to release barrels into the market. ExxonMobil posted Permian output in excess of 1.4mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the third quarter, bolstered by the closure of its $60bn acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in May. Meanwhile, Chevron's production from the top-performing US shale basin set a new company high of 950,000 boe/d, surpassing expectations and putting it firmly on track to reach a goal of 1mn boe/d next year. Robust results from the Permian, which straddles west Texas and southeast New Mexico, have also been reported by other operators, with leading US upstream independent ConocoPhillips lifting its full-year production outlook after achieving record results from the Lower 48 in the latest quarter. In fact, soaring output from the Permian helped to push overall US production up by 1.5pc to a record 13.4mn b/d in August, according to the Energy Information Administration. ExxonMobil, which will release a new development plan for the Permian at an analyst event next month, already envisages greater savings from the Pioneer acquisition than the original $2bn/yr that was outlined when the deal was announced. The top US major is integrating Pioneer's water infrastructure network to serve the combined assets at a lower cost. It is also taking advantage of a remote logistics operations centre it inherited through the deal. "We just achieved an all-time Pioneer record for drilling performance in terms of lateral feet drilled per day," chief executive Darren Woods says. A stellar performance from Colorado assets acquired through last year's takeover of PDC Energy also lifted Chevron, as did recent US Gulf of Mexico start-ups. ExxonMobil was the only major, apart from Shell, able to cut net debt in the third quarter. That suggests its $20bn annual share buyback plan is sustainable in the current climate without needing to resort to asset sales, HSBC noted. The Permian's outperformance, driven by productivity gains that are helping to bring down costs, bodes well for the US majors at a time of macroeconomic uncertainty, and concerns over an oversupplied market putting oil prices under pressure. While both ExxonMobil and Chevron have ramped up investor returns, analysts say Chevron's share buyback programme could be more vulnerable unless crude prices rebound. But Chevron's Permian spending is set to peak this year, with free cash flow becoming "more of the driver" in 2025 as output reaches a plateau, according to chief executive Mike Wirth. Chevron set a goal of trimming costs by $2bn-3bn by the end of 2026. And ExxonMobil says its $15bn cost savings target by 2027 remains on course, and could even be exceeded. Less stress over Hess Growing oil production abroad is set to enhance the US majors' record output at home. Although ExxonMobil's output from Guyana slipped in the third quarter because of work to complete a gas-to-energy project, it has since recovered."Execution is undoubtedly strong, allowing Exxon to maximise value from its assets," HSBC's head of European oil and gas research, Kim Fustier, says. Chevron's closely watched expansion programme in Kazakhstan remains on track to start operations in the first half of 2025. This should help to offset some gloom over Chevron stock caused by the delay to its $53bn purchase of US independent Hess. A dispute with ExxonMobil over rights of first refusal to an offshore discovery in Guyana will be settled by international arbitration next May. "Uncertainty over the Hess deal will continue to hover in the background for some time, but Chevron is doing well on the elements it can control," Fustier says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Austria to ask EU to act if German gas levy not removed

08/11/24

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08/11/24

Austria to ask EU to act if German gas levy not removed

London, 8 November (Argus) — Austrian energy regulator E-Control will "take all necessary steps" at an EU level if it looks like a law to abolish Germany's storage levy on gas exiting the country will not be passed in time, it told Argus today. E-Control will take action in close co-operation with the Austrian ministry, the European Commission and energy regulators' group Acer before the end of December if needed, the regulator's executive director, Alfons Haber, told Argus . The regulator is "very much concerned that the announced abolishment of the German gas storage levy at cross-border exit points is at risk now", Haber said. But E-Control remains optimistic that the German government will fulfil its promise to abolish the gas storage levy from 1 January 2025. The collapse of the German government earlier this week has made it uncertain whether parliament can pass the required bill in time. The German storage levy — set at €2.50/MWh at present — was introduced in 2022 to cover losses incurred by German market area manager THE to fill gas storage sites ahead of the winter. But the levy made the German import route uneconomical for its southern and eastern neighbours, which last year asked the EU to intervene. Germany agreed to scrap the levy on cross-border interconnection points in May , saying at the time that the change would have to be ratified by an act of parliament. The levy "severely impacts cross-border gas flows in Europe and has strong negative effects on the CEE region", Haber told Argus . Particularly in light of the risk that Russian gas transit through Ukraine would end after 1 January, German imports would become more significant for Austria, in which case the levy would "hurt" even more, Austrian market area manager AGGM board member Bernhard Painz said. Scope for levy law to be passed in time The incumbent government hopes to pass some bills "that cannot be delayed" before the end of this year, the chancellor said on 6 November. Economy and climate minister Robert Habeck on 7 November said he expects the interests of the government and the "democratic opposition" to align on energy security. But Habeck does not expect "a great deal of helpfulness", and "it remains to be seen" whether some decisions can be made together with the opposition on a case-by-case basis, he said. Major opposition party CDU today voiced a desire for an earlier election date in German parliament, asking Scholz to schedule a vote of no confidence as early as next week. This would drastically reduce the chance of any bill being passed before the end of this year. The chancellor today said he was open to a "sober" discussion about the election date. Scholz expressed hope that the "democratic factions of parliament" could agree on which laws can still be passed this year. This common understanding could determine the "right moment" to trigger a vote of no confidence, he said. Only the chancellor can call a vote of no confidence under the German constitution. The opposition can do so only if they elect a new chancellor at the same time. Bill is not controversial among democratic parties Democratic parties showed no opposition to the bill to change how the storage levy is charged during its first reading in parliament, suggesting it could be passed as one of the bipartisan projects if it is high enough on the agenda. The bill, introduced to parliament in August , was framed as a way to align the storage levy with EU rules. The government asked for it to be expedited. The upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, passed the law on to the lower house without comments on the proposed changes. During the first reading of the bill in the lower house, no democratic party raised any concerns about the law. CDU instead framed it as an attempt to fix what the government had done wrong in 2022. Then-governing parties the Greens, SPD and FDP were in favour of the law in light of its positive effects on EU solidarity. BMWK was not immediately available for comment on whether the storage levy was on the list of laws that the government would try to push through before the end of this year. By Till Stehr and Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canada climate plans not equally at risk post-Trudeau

08/11/24

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08/11/24

Canada climate plans not equally at risk post-Trudeau

Toronto, 8 November (Argus) — Canada's climate policies will be overhauled if prime minister Justin Trudeau loses an upcoming federal election, but the Conservative Party might not move to roll back all of the programs. Trudeau over nine years in office has pushed through a raft of carbon pricing policies, cracked down on provinces with insufficiently ambitious plans, and even started a global "challenge" to spur more jurisdictions to price emissions. But Canada's policies have exacerbated cost-of-living concerns at a time when voters across the world are punishing incumbents for inflation, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has barnstormed the country with a pledge to "axe the tax." An election must happen no later than October 2025, and the ruling Liberals are down significantly in polls. "We are going to see change, significant change," said Lisa DeMarco, a senior partner at the law firm Resilient and a member of the International Emissions Trading Association board at the Canada Clean Fuels and Carbon Markets Summit in Toronto, Ontario, this week. What "axe the tax" might mean in practice is uncertain. Inevitable targets are the country's federal fuel charge, currently at C$80/t ($57.54/t) and set to gradually increase to C$170/t in 2030, and a recently proposed greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade program for upstream oil and gas producers. But other policies, especially those with industry support, could remain. The country's distinct system for taxing industrial emissions, which includes a federal output-based pricing system that functions as a performance standard, "will likely be untouched," said former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole. A point of debate at the conference was what Poilievre might do with the country's clean fuel regulations, which function similarly to California's long-running low-carbon fuel standard and have boosted biofuel usage in the country. The policy is "certainly not at the top of the list" of Conservative priorities, said Andy Brosnan, president of low-carbon fuels at environmental products marketer Anew Climate. But that does not mean it will escape scrutiny. Conservatives could tinker with the program or push through more muscular changes like excluding electric vehicles, said David Beaudoin, chief executive of the climate consultancy NEL-i. "We should expect that regulation will be maybe not dismantled but somehow changed, perhaps fundamentally," Beaudoin said. In the gap left by the federal government, provinces could make up the difference with their own climate programs, panelists agreed. Quebec for instance has a linked carbon market with California, and British Columbia has its own low-carbon fuel standard. But policymakers should heed the lessons of Trudeau's declining popularity and reorient how they approach climate policy, O'Toole argued. "Try to be minimally disruptive on economically vulnerable citizens," he said. "Try not to pit industry against industry or region of the country against region." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal

08/11/24

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08/11/24

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal

London, 8 November (Argus) — Water levels at Gatun Lake that supplies the Panama Canal will reach an all-time high in December, according to forecasts from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). This is a significant shift from the start of the year, when water levels were at the lowest January level since 1965 following an extensive El Nino induced-drought in 2023 ( see chart ). ACP expects water levels at the lake to hit 88.9ft on 7 December and then 89ft on 18 December, which if confirmed would break the 88.85ft record registered on 5 December 2022. This time last year water levels were in an 80-82ft range, the lowest on record for the November-December months, which prompted ACP to enforce rigorous transit restrictions that sent shockwaves through LPG and other shipping markets . The change in water levels reflects the transition from El Nino to La Nina, which typically brings more rainfall to Panama. Higher water levels from the onset of the rainy season in May allowed the ACP to gradually lift transits back to full capacity by August . This has helped keep auction prices for transits at the larger Neopanamax locks near initial $100,000 bidding levels — and even outpace demand, with many slots turned away without receiving any bids . Argus ' average weekly auction prices have ranged from $112,900 to $209,389 since July, settling at $136,750 by last week. This is a complete turnaround from a year earlier, when shippers paid as high as nearly $4mn for a single transit. On average, Neopanamax auction prices cost $2.1mn in November 2023. This probably helped support Panama Canal's profits in its financial 2024 year, to $3.45bn from $3.2bn a year earlier despite a 20pc fall in transits because of water-saving restrictions implemented. The ACP said the results reflected strategies such as the "freshwater surcharge, improved water yield through structural and operational upgrades, system enhancements for reservations and auctions, and maritime service operations." Water levels are forecast to gradually decrease again from 23 December with the start of the dry season, which usually lasts by May. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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