Current renewable energy plans for 2030 would fall short of the target set at the Cop 28 summit and most countries should increase their pace of installation, the Paris-based IEA said in a report published today.
Around 200 countries pledged to triple renewable power capacity during the UN Cop 28 summit in Dubai last year. Their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — countries' climate plans — are due to be submitted next year and include revised ambitions for 2030 and new goals for 2035.
But renewable capacity ambitions by 2030 across previously submitted NDCs amount to around 1,300GW — or 12pc of the global tripling target, which aims to bring installed capacity to 11,000GW by 2030. And if countries included all their existing policies, plans and estimates in their new NDCs, they would reflect 70pc of what is needed by 2030 — or 8,000GW — to reach the tripling goal, the IEA said.
In particular, solar photovoltaic (PV) accounts for 50pc of the capacity identified by governments while wind power represents 26pc. "Hydropower, bioenergy and other renewables tend to be overlooked," the IEA noted. And installed solar PV capacity could surpass hydropower, the world's largest source of installed renewable capacity in 2022, if countries meet their ambitions for 2030.
The IEA counted around 50 countries that are on track to reach or surpass their current plans. The agency emphasised the "crucial" role of China's renewable expansion for the pace of global deployment. Although China has not yet published an explicit 2030 target for total renewable capacity, the country is expected to surpass its 2030 target of 1,200GW of solar PV and wind this year.
On the policy side, the agency advised encouraging power system flexibility, developing energy storage capacity and demand response mechanisms. It also recommended streamlining permitting with a simplification of rules and procedures.
Global renewable capacity additions reached almost 560GW last year, up by 64pc on the year, with China the biggest contributor. The world, except China, would need to accelerate average annual growth by 36pc over the rest of the decade to reach national ambitions, the IEA found.
