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Australian industry urges support for gas-fired power

  • Market: Electricity
  • 17/06/24

Australian utilities and market experts have grown more vocal about the need for federal and state governments to support existing and future gas-fired power generation, as the country phases out coal-fired plants and transitions to a system with more renewables.

The current lack of incentives could be worsened by potential distortions stemming from the federal government's Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS), which will support 32GW of new renewable capacity and storage but excludes gas, delegates heard during the Australian Energy Week 2024 organised by Quest Events in Melbourne last week.

"If you're only supporting new renewables and you don't take care of existing gas assets, you run into trouble," utility Engie Australia and New Zealand's chief executive Rik De Buyserie said. While "hugely positive" for renewables, the scheme will "add headwinds to the business case for keeping gas-fired assets in market," he warned.

Engie earlier this year decided to close two diesel-fired power plants in South Australia (SA) — the 75MW Port Lincoln and 63MW Snuggery — as they were not economical in an environment of rapid solar and wind penetration, which "raises questions on the future reliability of the system," De Buyserie said. South Australia has brought forward its 100pc renewable energy target by three years, to 2027 from 2030, although noting that gas-fired plants would need to continue to back up the system.

Infrastructure group Atco, which operates a gas distribution system in Western Australia (WA), as well as gas-fired plants in WA and SA, has been running one of its units more flexibly, even though it was originally designed to operate as a base-load facility.

"We've made some technical adjustments. But it really puts a lot of pressure on the machine. And starting and stopping it two or three times a week will increase the wear and tear," Atco Australia chief executive John Ivulich said. "We can do it for a period but it's not sustainable."

There is a "growing awareness" of the importance of gas in the reliability of the electricity system for consultancy McKinsey partner Victor Finkel, which was underlined by the federal government in its long-awaited Future Gas Strategy. But incentives for long-term investment, if any, are yet to be developed.

The Australian Energy Market Operator estimated in its draft 2024 Integrated Systems Plan that the National Electricity Market will need 16.2GW of gas-fired capacity by 2050, up from the existing 11.2GW, as coal-fired generation is phased out in the next decade. Around 8GW of existing gas-fired capacity is forecast or announced to retire and will need to be replaced, while 5GW of new capacity will need to be added.

Support mechanisms

Lobby groups, such as the Australian Energy Producers and the Australian Pipelines and Gas Association, have been calling for support mechanisms for gas-fired generation, which could be done by including the technology in the CIS or developing alternative schemes that provide long-term investment signals.

The market will "definitely" need capacity mechanisms to support gas-fired peaking plants in the long term, as there is currently no market signal for new investments, according to the director of the Gas and Energy Transition Research Centre at the University of Queensland David Close.

"As long as that is not fixed, I would struggle to see new gas-fired capacity coming on line," De Buyserie summarised. "It's just too risky based on merchant revenues."


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Brazil’s inflation decelerates to 4.83pc in December

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Sao Paulo, 10 January (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to 4.83pc at the end of 2024, as declines in power costs were only partially offset by gains in fuel and food, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 4.87pc in November and compared with 4.76pc in October. The year-end print compared with 4.62pc in December 2023, but was down from 5.79pc in December 2022. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.69pc in December, accounting for much of the monthly increase, following a 7.63pc annual gain in November. Beef costs increased by an annual 20.84pc in December following a 15.43pc annual gain for the prior month. Higher beef costs in the domestic market are related to the Brazilian's real depreciation to the US dollar, with the Brazilian real depreciating by 27.4pc to the US dollar between 31 December 2023 and the same date in 2024 . Still, beef prices decelerated by 5.26pc in December alone, down from 8pc in November. Soybean oil rose by 29.21pc over the year, an increase of 1.64 percentage points from November. Fuel prices rose by an annual 10.09pc in December after an 8.78pc gain in November. Motor fuel costs grew by 0.7pc in December, compared with a 0.15pc drop in the prior month, thanks to higher gasoline prices. Diesel prices increased by 0.66pc in the 12-month period, while it decreased by 2.25pc in November. Gasoline prices — the major individual contributor to the annual high, according to IBGE — rose by 9.71pc in December from 9.12pc in the prior month. Still, that was lower than in December 2023, when the annual inflation for gasoline stood at 11pc. Power costs in December contracted by an annual 0.37pc in December, as improvements in power generation allowed for removal of a surcharge from customer bills, after a gain of 3.46pc the prior month. In November, Brazil faced lower river levels at its hydroelectric plants after a period of severe droughts . Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank in December raised its target rate to 12.25pc from 11.25pc as the real's depreciation accelerated. It also signaled it is likely to increase the rate to 14.25pc by March. Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.52pc in December from 0.39pc in November. But the rate was lower than in December 2023, when it stood at 0.56pc. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low


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Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low

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German gas demand edges up in 2024


08/01/25
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08/01/25

German gas demand edges up in 2024

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By Till Stehr German power generation mix by year GW TTF versus LPG prices, energy equivalence basis $/mn Btu Monthly year-on-year change in gas demand by sector GWh/d German gas demand by year TWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Singapore, Malaysia to collaborate on CCS, RECs


08/01/25
News
08/01/25

Singapore, Malaysia to collaborate on CCS, RECs

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