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Soaring freight costs hit LatAm polymers trade

  • Market: Petrochemicals
  • 18/06/24

Latin American plastic product manufacturers have been facing a significant surge in freight costs from Asia to the Americas since early April, with prices exceeding $10,000 per 40-foot container (FEU) heading into June, compared with approximately $1,170/FEU at the end of March.

This high value was reported to Argus by polymer traders in the Manaus Free Trade Zone last week. It is the highest rate reported by market participants in the region. But data collected by Argus shows that average freight rates from Asia to the east coast of South America were between $6,800-$8,000/FEU on 31 May. In the two following weeks, prices hit $8,000-8,500/FEU.

The phenomenon is connected to a logistics readjustment following disruptions on major global shipping routes since last year. But the current situation also has a unique cause: electric vehicles imports from China to Latin America.

Chinese electric car manufacturers have been taking advantage of available space on vessels traveling the Asia-South America route before an increase in import tariffs on these vehicles. In Brazil, import duties are set to rise in July for all types of electrified vehicles, from 10pc to 18pc for fully electrified cars, from 12pc to 20pc for hybrid cars, and up to 25pc for non-rechargeable hybrid vehicles.

This window of opportunity exploited by Chinese manufacturers has overloaded ships on the China-Brazil route, both for cars and containers filled with spare parts and components. Importers of other materials, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), have been significantly affected. In the case of PP, some importers have stopped importing this resin from China and other Asian countries due to the substantial increase in freight costs.

As a result, PP buyers in Brazil and the rest of South America are meeting their needs with material sourced from the Middle East (in Brazil's case) and the US (for countries on the west coast of South America), or from regional producers like Braskem in Brazil, Esenttía in Colombia, Petrocuyo in Argentina, and to a lesser extent, Petroquim in Chile.

Logistical Disruptions

The current higher maritime freight rates between Asia and South America follow logistical disruptions in two of the world's most important navigation channels, the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal.

The Panama Canal faced challenges last year due to severe drought, resulting in a decrease in authorized vessel crossings between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The usual 30 transits dropped to around 18 in February.

While the situation in the Panama Canal is gradually improving, it has had consequences for commercial flows between polymer producers in Asia and consumers on the east coast of South America, namely Brazil and Argentina. Similarly, disruptions occurred between European producers and consumers on the west coast of South America, like Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile.

Another critical maritime trade corridor, the Suez Canal, which connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, continues to be impacted by armed actions from military groups. As a result, shipping companies have increasingly preferred the longer route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, despite the longer distances and significantly elevated freight costs.


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24/01/25

Q&A: Clarity on regulations is key: PETCORE's Ciotti

Q&A: Clarity on regulations is key: PETCORE's Ciotti

London, 24 January (Argus) — After a solid but slightly underwhelming second half of 2024, this year brings a range of possibilities for the European rPET market. For the first time, there is an obligation for EU member states to reach a 25pc recycled content threshold for PET beverage bottles placed on their market, which should support demand. But cheap virgin PET prices increase the incentive for non-compliance, and European recyclers have called for more clarity over issues including how targets will be enforced and how imported recyclates and chemically recycled material will be allowed to count towards them, to stimulate investment. Argus spoke to PETCORE Europe president Antonello Ciotti this week to understand his views on these topics and the outlook for 2025. What are your expectations for PET recycling in 2025, and how recyclers can deal with challenges such as rising fixed costs and energy prices, as well as cheap virgin prices, in the current market environment? Unfortunately, my expectations are not high. We face two basic challenges. Firstly, we face a structural issue because collection costs in Europe are far higher than outside Europe — some 10 times higher compared with countries such as Egypt, Morocco and China. European recyclers cannot close this gap simply by higher technical standards and innovation — they need protection to compete on a level playing field. Secondly, we are grappling with a lack of clarity. The EU institutions are not clear on what will happen if players don't add at least 25pc recycled content to PET beverage bottles that they sell into the EU market [in line with the country-by-country targets laid out since 1 January in the EU Single Use Plastic (SUP) directive]. There does not appear to be any penalty for those who do not comply with the rules, so naturally the incentive to comply is not high. As the cost of rPET is higher than vPET, we need to fight any potential greenwashing as hard as we can, to ensure brands that are paying the prices to comply are not at a cost disadvantage and thus losing market share, margin and profitability. How much of an impact do you expect imports to have on the European rPET market in the coming years, taking into account expectations for how the push for stricter certification on imports will develop? The current situation is clear — imported rPET is cheaper than European rPET. Stricter certification will certainly have an impact in the medium term, but it's not here yet. The current situation is that European rPET manufacturers face extra costs compared with imports, which cannot be compensated. Some brands could look to address the recycled content requirements set out by the SUP directive by seeking to buy lots of recyclates from outside Europe. In the future, with proper certification implemented, this could change the landscape significantly. How much is the uncertainty and potential inconsistency in enforcement of the recycled content regulations in the SUP directive likely to affect its impact on rPET demand in 2025? For the time being, uncertainty will affect the directive's impact a great deal. It is not clear what counts as recycled content and if depolymerisation is included. The EU Directorate-General for Health and Food Safety was requesting that recycled content should include only PET from European collections, but so far there is a lack of clarity on whether to interpret the definition of "placed on the market" as the EU market or the global market, which is adding to the confusion.* The SUP directive, passed in 2019, is not clear enough and to confuse matters further, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) passed in 2024 is not aligned with the SUP. The SUP is a directive, so it is for EU member states, and they must transpose it into their own laws by January 2025 and implement it. The PPWR is a regulation, aimed at companies that must reach specific targets by 2030. However, with the current market situation of rPET being more costly than virgin PET, companies are understandably hesitant to increase the recycled content to or above 25pc as the target is a country average. It only really makes sense for the large brands that are driven by customer demand. Consumers are keen to see recycled content in packaging, but of course they do not expect to pay more for their products as a result. There is currently a clear disconnect between the wishes of the consumer and the realities of the industry. Several European PET depolymerisation projects have faced challenges in recent months. How quickly do you expect to see commercial-scale depolymerisation making a meaningful contribution to PET recycling in Europe? I don't see depolymerisation making a meaningful contribution until we get greater clarity over regulation. This is something that we will be taking up urgently with the European Commission, including with the commission speakers at our annual PETCORE Europe conference in Brussels on 4-5 February. Clearly the technology needs to be proven and to be cost-effective. But even if this was the case, companies may have cancelled and postponed projects due to legislative uncertainty. They cannot be expected to move ahead with huge investments if it is not clear whether the definition of what is accountable in recycled content has been clarified. The endless discussion on the mass balance technology is a typical example of what we need to clarify.† PETCORE Europe continues to push the commission to clarify all the cloudy points that are still pending, to allow correct implementation of the SUP directive. This is the thrust of the discussions that will be taking place at our conference. The environment in which we operate is changing and Europe's PET industry has realised that it has lost its former global competitiveness. The challenge, and our role as the association representing the complete PET value chain in Europe, is to work to set in place conditions needed for the industry to regain its position and its competitive advantage by innovation and investments in new technologies. *The most recent EU implementing decision relating to the SUP directive defines post-consumer plastic waste as generated from waste "placed on the market" without further clarification. A draft update in February 2024 expanded on the definition to "generated from plastic products that have been supplied for distribution, consumption or use on the market of a Member State or of a third country in the course of a commercial activity", but this was not adopted at the time. †The as-yet-unadopted February 2024 implementing decision laid down a "fuel-use exempt" methodology for calculating chemically recycled content in respect of the SUP directive targets. This led to an objection from the European Parliament's environment committee, although this was rejected in a vote by the parliament. Discussions are ongoing with a new draft implementing decision due early this year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Dow to idle one cracker at Terneuzen: Update


24/01/25
News
24/01/25

Dow to idle one cracker at Terneuzen: Update

Adds butadiene capacity London, 24 January (Argus) — Dow is postponing a planned turnaround at one of its three steam crackers in Terneuzen, the Netherlands, "due to continued weakened market conditions in the region". This will result in the cracker being idled when its legal inspection dates are reached, understood to be within the next few months. "The decision enables Dow to both navigate soft market conditions in the region and reduce expenditures in 2025, while still enabling the company to safely, reliably, and profitably meet contracted customer commitments", Dow said. Local reports citing workers suggest that the unit in question is the number 3 cracker at Terneuzen. This was expected to have maintenance in 2023, but that was previously postponed to this year and has now been postponed indefinitely. Cracker 3 is the newest unit at Terneuzen and in common with crackers 1 and 2 has a high degree of flexibility for LPG feedstocks, which Dow has repeatedly cited has supported healthy operating margins relative to naphtha-based crackers. But the site is long on cracker products and placing volumes in the market has been challenging because of overall weak demand in Europe. The length was exacerbated by the closure of local derivatives such as ethylbenzene-styrene production operated by Trinseo and cumene production operated by Olin in 2023. It has been unclear how hard the three crackers at Terneuzen have been running in the past two years. Dow's internal and contractual demand may be supported by the remaining two crackers. There is no timeline on any restart, but it is likely to be dependent on demand and investment to complete required maintenance. Terneuzen 3 has nameplate capacities of 600,000 t/yr ethylene and 300,000 t/yr propylene. The other operating crackers have a combined capacity of 1.2mn t/yr, feeding local PE production of 880,000 t/yr. Propylene nameplate capacity of these crackers is 590,000 t/yr, which is shipped to Dow and other customers via vessel or in the northwest European pipeline system. The site also has the capacity to produce up to 170,000 t/yr of butadiene. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Dow to idle one cracker at Terneuzen


24/01/25
News
24/01/25

Dow to idle one cracker at Terneuzen

London, 24 January (Argus) — Dow is postponing a planned turnaround at one of its three steam crackers in Terneuzen, the Netherlands, "due to continued weakened market conditions in the region". This will result in the cracker being idled when its legal inspection dates are reached, understood to be within the next few months. "The decision enables Dow to both navigate soft market conditions in the region and reduce expenditures in 2025, while still enabling the company to safely, reliably, and profitably meet contracted customer commitments", Dow said. Local reports citing workers suggest that the unit in question is the number 3 cracker at Terneuzen. This was expected to have maintenance in 2023, but that was previously postponed to this year and has now been postponed indefinitely. Cracker 3 is the newest unit at Terneuzen and in common with crackers 1 and 2 has a high degree of flexibility for LPG feedstocks, which Dow has repeatedly cited has supported healthy operating margins relative to naphtha-based crackers. But the site is long on cracker products and placing volumes in the market has been challenging because of overall weak demand in Europe. The length was exacerbated by the closure of local derivatives such as ethylbenzene-styrene production operated by Trinseo and cumene production operated by Olin in 2023. It has been unclear how hard the three crackers at Terneuzen have been running in the past two years. Dow's internal and contractual demand may be supported by the remaining two crackers. There is no timeline on any restart, but it is likely to be dependent on demand and investment to complete required maintenance. Terneuzen 3 has nameplate capacities of 600,000 t/yr ethylene and 300,000 t/yr propylene. The other operating crackers have a combined capacity of 1,200,000 t/yr feeding local PE production of 880,000 t/yr. Propylene nameplate capacity of these crackers is 590,000 t/yr, which is shipped to Dow and other customers via vessel or in the northwest European pipeline system. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Texas, Louisiana ports closed by winter storm: Update


21/01/25
News
21/01/25

Texas, Louisiana ports closed by winter storm: Update

Updates status of operations at Port Houston facilities. Houston, 21 January (Argus) — Ports in Texas and Louisiana remained closed to shipping traffic Tuesday afternoon due to a winter storm, a shipping agent said. Marine pilots suspended boardings at the Texas ports of Houston, Galveston, Texas City and Freeport late on 20 January. Traffic also was halted at the Sabine-Neches Waterway on the Texas-Louisiana border, which offers access to terminals and refineries in Port Arthur and Beaumont, Texas, as well as Cheniere's Sabine Pass liquefied natural gas terminal. Pilots also halted traffic at the Louisiana port of Lake Charles late on 20 January. Port Houston facilities, which include eight public terminals on the Houston Ship Channel, will remain closed through Wednesday, according to statement from port officials. Vessel operations may resume at container terminals on Wednesday evening, the statement said. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US housing permits drop in Dec, PVC demand stagnant


17/01/25
News
17/01/25

US housing permits drop in Dec, PVC demand stagnant

Houston, 17 January (Argus) — A decline in US housing permits in December signaled continued constrains on new construction to start 2025, even as single-family starts rose. Suspension-grade polyvinyl chloride (PVC) contracts in the US were flat for December with Argus assessing the price at 57.5¢/lb. Discussions for January point to a possible rollover as well, even as feedstock ethylene prices rise, because demand is still soft at the start of the new year. Privately-owned US housing permits declined to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.483mn units in December, down 0.7pc from November and 3.1pc off from December 2023 according to the US Census Bureau and the Department for Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Single-family permits were at a rate of 992,000 units in December, up 1.6pc from November but still 2.5pc lower from a year earlier. New starts were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.499mn units, a 15.8pc increase from November but still 4.4pc below December 2023. The jump was attributable to a 59pc surge in multi-family home starts, which tend to be more volatile month-to-month. Single-family starts grew to a rate of 1.05mn units, up 3.3pc from November but still 2.6pc lower from the year before. Total permits never grew for two consecutive months or longer over the course of 2024, in large part due to volatility in multi-family construction. Single-family permits did grow each month since September, but each month remained below the prior year's rate from June onward. Both the inconsistent growth in overall permits as well as lagging year-over-year improvement in single-family permits have contributed to PVC buyers in the US market expecting stable but soft demand for the first half of 2025. Builder confidence rose by 1 point in January to 47, according to the National Association of Home Builder (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builders hope the new year will bring a better economic and regulatory environment. But concerns remain that building material tariffs and costs, as well as a larger government deficit could put upward pressure on inflation and mortgage rates. Any number below 50 still indicates a bearish sentiment. The modest expectations from housing market participants come as 30-year mortgage rates rose above 7pc last week, as the Federal Reserve scaled back its expected interest rate cuts for 2025 to two in mid-December from four quarter point cuts penciled in in September. Both developments add further pressure to the housing market by raising the cost to buy homes as well as to build them. By Aaron May Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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