Ukraine crop tour: 2024-25 corn output to fall

Market: Agriculture
21/06/24

Ukraine's 2024-25 corn production is projected to be lower than the five-year average on declining acreage, based on observations made on the fourth day of the Argus virtual crop tour.

Argus' early forecast for corn production in Ukraine in the 2024-25 season stands at 29mn t, down from 31.03mn t in 2023-24. Acreage is anticipated at 3.9mn ha, slightly lower than last year's 3.98mn ha. Yields are projected at 7.44 t/ha, above the five-year average of 7 t/ha.

Argus will further refine these forecasts at the end of August, during its Ukraine corn crop tour.

Farmers are reporting good vegetative mass developed by the plants and good growth potential — the corn needs to reach a certain height to be able to provide good yields. But hot and dry weather conditions that are forecast going forward could hamper yield potential.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly raised its 2024-25 corn production forecast for the country, to 27.7mn t, but also increased its export projection, with the final stock for 2024-25 unchanged from the previous report at 1.48mn t.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture has forecast the country's 2024-25 corn production at 28.5mn t, which would provide more exportable availability.

Argus projected beginning stocks of corn in Ukraine in the 2024-25 season at just 1.2mn t, compared with 4.1mn t in 2023-24. This would reduce Ukrainian export potential in 2024-25 to 24mn t, 4.5mn t lower than the previous season.

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