Brazilian prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) are expected to increase further in July — following increases in June — as domestic producers are betting on higher domestic demand along with lower offers for the type of steel.
Brazilian HRC prices are at around $790/t fob, market sources told Argus, with some producers offering about $800/t. That compares with around $730/t last month, sources said.
This upward swing is being heavily driven by new tariffs on imported steel, a measure taken by the government aiming to protect domestic producers against unfair competition with cheaper imports, chiefly from China.
Brazil imported a little under 430,000 metric tonnes (t) of HRC in 2023 — over three times the 133,000t from 2022 — 62pc of which originated in China, according to customs data compiled by Global Trade Tracker. Brazil is on track to import over 480,000t in 2024 based on the latest import statistics through May.
Some producers have told clients that prices would rise by July. Brazilian steelmaker Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (CSN) warned that HRC prices would rise by 7.5pc, while Gerdau would increase it by 8pc, sources familiar with the matter told Argus.
CSN and Gerdau declined to comment.
Domestic producers are also prioritizing slab production over HRC as export demand for the semi-finished grade has heated up, sources said.
Brazil exported 445,800t of slab, a 10.4pc increase from April, according to customs data.
Still, some other sources were skeptical that the market would accept such a rise, saying that key consumers are supplied with enough steel for the coming months, leading them to reject increases more broadly.
