IGC keeps Australian grain output, export forecasts

Market: Agriculture
02/07/24

The International Grains Council's (IGC) projections of Australia's grain production and exports in 2024-25 remain largely unchanged, despite rainfall in major cropping areas in June.

The IGC revised its forecasts for Australia's 2024-25 grain production slightly downward from May by 125,000t to 45.5mn t, and exports by 50,000t to 31.7mn t. Wheat production and exports remained unchanged at 30.1mn t and 21.5mn t, respectively.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) June rainfall summary showed national rainfall at almost 10pc above the 1961-1990 average. National area-averaged mean temperature was 0.71 degrees higher than the 1961-1990 average.

Rainfall was above average for most of Western Australia in June, or in the top 10pc of June months since 1900, supporting crop germination and development. Areas near the Geraldton cropping region — which accounts for approximately 22pc of WA's wheat crop area — received their highest rainfallon record, according to BoM data and the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (Giwa) estimates.

The seasonally late major rainfall event delayed the state's crop development, but warmer soil temperatures accelerated crop growth. That put the state back on track for at least an average year

as opposed to a well below average year, Giwa said in its crop report released in early June.

Rainfall remained below average in parts of WA's Albany and Kwinana South cropping regions in June. Dryness in June was even more severe in southern New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria, which received below average or very much below average rainfall in June.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (Abares) noted earlier in June that yield expectations in NSW's southern cropping regions were highly contingent on sufficient and timely rainfall. Abares expects the state's overall winter crop to yield 2.5 t/hectare in 2024-25.

The IGC did not change its 2024-25 world grain output projection in June from 2,312mn t in May. Global carryover stocks in 2024-25 were revised upward by 2mn t, but remained the lowest in a decade at 582mn t.

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