New Dutch government clarifies energy policies
The Dutch king today formally confirmed the new right-wing cabinet under prime minister Dick Schoof, ending a seven-month coalition negotiation since the parliamentary elections in November.
Lengthy coalition talks between election winner Geert Wilders of the far-right populist PVV, the centre-right New Social Contract (NSC) party under Pieter Omtzigt, incumbent centre-right party VVD and farmer's citizen movement BBB were only concluded on the basis that Wilders would not become prime minister. Instead, all parties confirmed former civil servant Schoof as prime minister in late May.
The PVV secured the most seats in elections in November 2023 and had proposed far-reaching changes to energy policy in its election manifesto, which focused on abolishing decarbonisation targets. But many of these proposals would have run counter to binding EU policy and legislation, and the more moderate coalition partners NSC and VVD may have contributed to softening those ambitions in the energy sector. The initial coalition agreement between the parties published in May shows energy and climate policy roughly in line with the outgoing government, albeit with a stronger focus on domestic security of supply and scaling back some climate policies that were in advance of European policy.
The new government plans to split the ministry for economic affairs and climate into two, although the ministry for economic affairs retains the directorates for climate and energy as well as Groningen and extractive industries. The position of state secretary for mining, formerly held by Hans Vijlbrief, has been cut from the ministry. And a new ministry for climate and green growth has been formed, although both ministries share the same general secretary, civil servant Sandor Gaastra.
The new economy minister Dirk Beljaarts (PVV) said today he would focus on a "stable, predictable business climate" to allow businesses to "count on government". The climate and green growth minister will be Sophie Hermans, previously parliamentary leader of the outgoing prime minister's party VVD, which may indicate greater alignment with the outgoing government's policies in this area. The new climate and green growth ministry oversees only one civil service directorate, on financial-economic affairs, which is also part of the economy ministry.
Outgoing climate and energy minister Rob Jetten encouraged Hermans to "continue on the green course" started in the last government, highlighting the independence from Russian gas and continued investments into renewables and insulation as large achievements of the outgoing government.
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Mexico economy showing 'timid growth': IMEF
Mexico economy showing 'timid growth': IMEF
Mexico City, 3 July (Argus) — Indicators of Mexico's non-manufacturing and manufacturing sectors suggested the economy recovered "some dynamism" in June, while maintaining the slow pace of growth of the second quarter, according to domestic financial association IMEF. "The trend suggested by the IMEF indicators suggest a moderate growth for the second quarter of the year," IMEF said. "The economy finds itself in an evident pause compared with the solid dynamism observed during 2022 and a large part of 2023." Manufacturing "stagnated" in the second quarter, it said. "It is very probable that economic activity will undergo additional slowdown in the second half of the year that will extend into 2025." IMEF's June manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased by 0.4 points to 49.5 points, still beneath the 50-point breakeven that shows contraction. This has been the third consecutive month of contraction. PMI adjusted to compensate for variations in company size was more positive, growing by 0.8 points to 51.2 in June, the group said. Manufacturing accounts for about a fifth of the Mexican economy. The non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the lion's share of the economy, rose by 0.6 points to 51 in June, marking a 29th month of expansion, IMEF said. Adjusted for company size, the headline services PMI rose by 0.9 to 5.18. Economic activity in Mexico continues to surprise downwards. After growth came in at an annual 1.6pc in the first quarter from a year earlier, the first data for April showed a monthly contraction of 0.6pc, IMEF said. Headwinds and tailwinds IMEF representatives highlighted growing market uncertainty following the Mexican election and ahead of the US presidential election in November. On the upside, said IMEF, Mexico should benefit from continued strength in the US economy, adding the incoming administration looks to bring down the current fiscal deficit, which is equal to 5.9pc of GDP. For which, it will not reach the government's 3pc target for the budget coming out in November, but progress is expected with next year's budget and moving forward. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s Gail seeks swap for August-loading LNG
India’s Gail seeks swap for August-loading LNG
Singapore, 3 July (Argus) — Indian state-controlled gas distributor Gail is offering a LNG cargo loading in the US in August, in exchange for a cargo for delivery to India in the same month. Gail is offering a cargo loading on 9 August from the US' 33mn t/yr Sabine Pass terminal in exchange for a 15-18 August delivery to the 5mn t/yr Dhamra terminal, through a tender that will close on 4 July. The firm was last in the market to seek a swap just last month, for the exact same delivery windows. Gail already issued this tender twice in June, but may have been unsuccessful in awarding the tender both times. Gail remains focused on issuing destination swap tenders to optimise its contracted US volumes. But falling spot prices may compel the firm to emerge for outright spot purchases in time to come. Indian state-controlled firm Gujarat State Petroleum (GSPC) likely purchased a 20-31 August delivery to the 5mn t/yr Mundra terminal at around $11.60-11.70/mn Btu, through a tender that closed on 2 July, traders said. The requirement was likely to fulfil captive demand from its subsidiary city gas supplier Gujarat Gas, they added. This transaction level is markedly lower than the previous spot transaction to India just last week. Indian state-controlled refiner BPCL purchased a delivery either on 30 July or 7, 8, 9, 11 August at around low-$12s/mn Btu, through a tender that closed on 26 June. Spot demand from India will likely fall in the weeks and months to come as the monsoon season has began in the country. More rains will increase hydropower generation, weigh on the need for additional gas-fired power generation as well as lower temperatures and reduce cooling demand, traders said. The Argus -assessed price for deliveries to India and the Middle East was last at $11.89/mn Btu for the second half of August on 2 July, about 3¢/mn Btu higher than a week earlier, but 20¢/mn Btu lower than a recent peak on 27 June. By Rou Urn Lee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US judge halts 'pause' on LNG export licenses
US judge halts 'pause' on LNG export licenses
Washington, 1 July (Argus) — A federal judge in Louisiana has ordered President Joe Biden's administration to end its five-month-old "pause" on the approval process for new LNG export licenses until the resolution of a lawsuit by states that said the policy is unlawful. The US Department of Energy (DOE) and other administration officials are immediately "enjoined and restrained" from "halting and/or pausing the approval process" for LNG export applications requesting licenses to export to countries without a free trade agreement with the US, federal district court judge James Cain wrote today. DOE did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The court's ruling is a potential blow for the Biden administration, which had said it would need until the first quarter of 2025 — after the November elections — to finish a more thorough review of the economic and climate-related effects of fully licensing LNG terminals, beyond the 48 Bcf/d of US liquefaction capacity that is fully permitted today. DOE officials have cited concerns that licensing more LNG projects could end up increasing natural gas prices for consumers. "So much has changed, including the volumes of what we're exporting," US deputy energy secretary David Turk said last week at a congressional hearing. "So we said, 'Let's take a step back, let's update our economic analysis." Biden announced the LNG licensing pause in January, delighting climate groups that have argued that approving additional projects would amount to a "climate bomb." But the pause enraged gas industry officials that worried the pause could threaten investments in a set of projects that were nearing a final investment decision. The pause raised uncertainty on the status of LNG export projects that have yet to obtain licenses, including Venture Global's proposed 28mn t/yr CP2 project in Louisiana that last week cleared a key part of the federal permitting process. The court's ruling does not explicitly require DOE to issue new LNG export licenses, or set an explicit deadline for the agency to take final action on pending applications. But the judge said that under the Natural Gas Act, DOE is required to act "expeditiously" once it receives an export application. Before Biden formally announced the pause, some LNG export applications were already subject to reviews that industry officials said amounted to a de facto freeze. In the ruling, Cain said that Louisiana and other states that challenged the LNG licensing pause were likely to succeed on the merits in showing Biden's policy was arbitrary and capricious, in part because DOE failed to provide a "detailed explanation" for its halt of the approval process. Cain said that DOE had made a "complete reversal" from its position in July 2023, when it defended its licensing process in its rejection of a complaint from environmentalists. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Shale to emerge leaner from M&A boom
Shale to emerge leaner from M&A boom
New York, 1 July (Argus) — The recent flurry of deals in the US shale patch is poised to deliver significant productivity gains, potentially offsetting a drilling slowdown and suggesting that it might well be a mistake to bet against the sector any time soon. Ownership of top shale basins, such as the Permian in west Texas and New Mexico, is increasingly falling into the hands of fewer but larger operators, with the necessary resources to chase technology breakthroughs and drive economies of scale that could support further output growth. The flood of deal-making comes as shale growth is likely to slow after defying all expectations last year. Even as acquirers look to fine-tune their combined portfolios and slow activity in favour of shareholder returns, they will still be targeting ever longer lateral wells that reduce the need for more rigs and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) crews. Fracking multiple wells at the same time and shifting to electric fleets will also help them become more efficient. All in all, shale could continue to be a thorn in Opec's side for years to come. Underestimate US shale at your peril was the title of a recent report from analysts at bank HSBC. "We expect the mergers and acquisitions to result in substantial capital efficiencies," they wrote. Concentrated operations have reduced inefficiencies in the supply chain, and the elimination of downtime has also helped producers become leaner, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. But costs remain 15-30pc higher than 2020-21 levels, suggesting scope for further improvements. And while efficiency gains will inevitably become exhausted at some point, opportunities to tackle unproductive processes might still crop up. "The will and the technology are there for some operators, who should be able to keep cutting capex while modestly growing and maintaining shareholder distributions for a while to come," Wood Mackenzie research director for the Lower 48 Maria Peacock says. ExxonMobil flagged $2bn in annual savings from its $64.5bn takeover of shale giant Pioneer, with two-thirds to come from improved resource recovery and the rest from efficiencies. Leading US independent ConocoPhillips says improved technology will help it extend its inventory of top-quality drilling locations in both the Eagle Ford and Bakken basins after its $22.5bn tie-up with Marathon Oil. Return to spender Productivity gains are hardly the preserve of firms that have been active participants in the $200bn of shale deals seen over the past year. For example, US independent EOG, which has sat out the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) boom so far, plans to deliver the same level of growth for this year as seen in 2023 with four fewer rigs and two fewer fracking fleets. "Technology has evolved so much that you can go and drill horizontal wells in these and exploit that technology and you can get just absolutely outstanding returns," chief operating officer Jeff Leitzell says. Still, almost half of oil and gas executives recently polled by the Dallas Federal Reserve think that US oil output will be "slightly lower" if consolidation continues over the next five years. But the answer differed by company size. All executives from E&P firms that produce 100,000 b/d or more envisaged "no impact". Service company executives are more concerned: "Consolidation by E&P firms has curtailed investment in exploration," one said. "Our hope is that it's a temporary situation that will work itself out as the integration is completed." And even though the prolific Permian basin is due to peak before the end of the decade, analysts forecast robust growth in the intervening years. Relatively high oil prices that remain above breakeven costs and efficiency gains — which will shift the mix of wells to newer and more productive ones — will be the main drivers, according to bank Goldman Sachs. By Stephen Cunningham US tight oil production Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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