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Chemical markets prepare for Canadian rail strike

  • Market: Chemicals, Petrochemicals
  • 02/08/24

Chemical industries in North America are bracing for a potential rail strike in Canada, but some markets expect greater impacts than others.

Participants across a variety of industries have expressed greater certainty that a rail strike is now likely after momentum for a strike several months prior had fizzled out. The Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) is making considerations that are due to be posted no later than 9 August, with some market participants expecting a strike to be called somewhere within 72 hours thereafter. The CIRB is evaluating what, if any, materials would be constituted as essential to move even during a strike.

Chlorine

The chlor-alkali market has raised concerns about a potential strike, with some suppliers of chlorine and hydrochloric acid (HCl) in Canada pushing for a strike to be delayed or for its products to be considered essential. Chlorine and HCl are both used in water treatment, and suppliers have said a prolonged stoppage in rail service without proper considerations for such products could endanger some municipal water supplies.

In the lead up to a potential strike, Canadian chlor-alkali producers and their US counterparts positioned close to the Canadian border have been trying to build up buyers' on-site inventories as a precaution. Producers have warned, however, that such contingency plans only work if the strike is not prolonged, as stoppages lasting longer than a few weeks could be problematic. Wildfires across central Canada have been complicating the efforts to ensure downstream inventories, as the fires have encroached on crucial rail lines and delayed or rerouted supply.

Polymers

In the polymers markets, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) producers in Canada, including Nova Chemicals and Heartland Polymers, made advanced preparations for a rail strike back in May. Both companies had moved some inventories in advance to storage warehouses in the US to limit supply disruptions to US customers.

In addition to storage on the US side, sources said the Canadian producers were also making plans for storage on the Canadian side so they could continue to operate, even if railcars were no longer moving. As long as a strike would not last more than a few weeks, most market participants said they believed there would be minimal disruption to the overall market.

An extended strike would likely result in some shipping delays, but producers on the US side could raise operating rates and potentially help to fill in any supply gaps.

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) customers in Canada had stocked up on supply back in May as well, with minimal concerns of disruption so long as any stoppage did not drag on. Some pipe producers with plants in Canada have also said the need to stock up on inventory has been lessened due to Canada's weaker economy and construction sector.

Polystyrene (PS) distributors have been positioning resin supply in the northeast and Midwest to quickly move across the border if need be, but warehouses in Canada were reportedly oversupplied on PS and turning away extra railcars.

Recycled polymers market participants indicated that with current low demand and low volume trades, the rail strike will likely lead to more truck usage rather than completely halting trades altogether.

Chemicals

The butadiene (BD) market reported that a Canadian rail strike would impact cross-border trade flows of feedstock crude C4 and BD into the US.

A BD producer in Sarnia, Ontario, primarily delivers BD to US customers in the Midwest — a fact that has prompted some concern from US customers about the impacts of a potential rail strike. Some BD buyers have worried thatprolonged disruptions to Canadian volumes could add tightness to the domestic US market, especially in cases where consumers are unable to source volumes from the US Gulf coast.

Concerns from the ethylene and aromatics markets were muted, and the isocyanate and polyurethane (PU) markets expressed little concern as most buyers were able to bring supply in by truck. Moreover, the vast majority of supply for the isocyanate chain comes from production in the US Gulf, meaning the majority of any transit would be conducted on lines not impacted by the strike. Methanol market participants also did not express significant concerns.


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Q&A: Clarity on regulations is key: PETCORE's Ciotti

Q&A: Clarity on regulations is key: PETCORE's Ciotti

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Unfortunately, my expectations are not high. We face two basic challenges. Firstly, we face a structural issue because collection costs in Europe are far higher than outside Europe — some 10 times higher compared with countries such as Egypt, Morocco and China. European recyclers cannot close this gap simply by higher technical standards and innovation — they need protection to compete on a level playing field. Secondly, we are grappling with a lack of clarity. The EU institutions are not clear on what will happen if players don't add at least 25pc recycled content to PET beverage bottles that they sell into the EU market [in line with the country-by-country targets laid out since 1 January in the EU Single Use Plastic (SUP) directive]. There does not appear to be any penalty for those who do not comply with the rules, so naturally the incentive to comply is not high. As the cost of rPET is higher than vPET, we need to fight any potential greenwashing as hard as we can, to ensure brands that are paying the prices to comply are not at a cost disadvantage and thus losing market share, margin and profitability. How much of an impact do you expect imports to have on the European rPET market in the coming years, taking into account expectations for how the push for stricter certification on imports will develop? The current situation is clear — imported rPET is cheaper than European rPET. Stricter certification will certainly have an impact in the medium term, but it's not here yet. The current situation is that European rPET manufacturers face extra costs compared with imports, which cannot be compensated. Some brands could look to address the recycled content requirements set out by the SUP directive by seeking to buy lots of recyclates from outside Europe. In the future, with proper certification implemented, this could change the landscape significantly. How much is the uncertainty and potential inconsistency in enforcement of the recycled content regulations in the SUP directive likely to affect its impact on rPET demand in 2025? For the time being, uncertainty will affect the directive's impact a great deal. It is not clear what counts as recycled content and if depolymerisation is included. The EU Directorate-General for Health and Food Safety was requesting that recycled content should include only PET from European collections, but so far there is a lack of clarity on whether to interpret the definition of "placed on the market" as the EU market or the global market, which is adding to the confusion.* The SUP directive, passed in 2019, is not clear enough and to confuse matters further, the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) passed in 2024 is not aligned with the SUP. The SUP is a directive, so it is for EU member states, and they must transpose it into their own laws by January 2025 and implement it. The PPWR is a regulation, aimed at companies that must reach specific targets by 2030. However, with the current market situation of rPET being more costly than virgin PET, companies are understandably hesitant to increase the recycled content to or above 25pc as the target is a country average. It only really makes sense for the large brands that are driven by customer demand. Consumers are keen to see recycled content in packaging, but of course they do not expect to pay more for their products as a result. There is currently a clear disconnect between the wishes of the consumer and the realities of the industry. Several European PET depolymerisation projects have faced challenges in recent months. How quickly do you expect to see commercial-scale depolymerisation making a meaningful contribution to PET recycling in Europe? I don't see depolymerisation making a meaningful contribution until we get greater clarity over regulation. This is something that we will be taking up urgently with the European Commission, including with the commission speakers at our annual PETCORE Europe conference in Brussels on 4-5 February. Clearly the technology needs to be proven and to be cost-effective. But even if this was the case, companies may have cancelled and postponed projects due to legislative uncertainty. They cannot be expected to move ahead with huge investments if it is not clear whether the definition of what is accountable in recycled content has been clarified. The endless discussion on the mass balance technology is a typical example of what we need to clarify.† PETCORE Europe continues to push the commission to clarify all the cloudy points that are still pending, to allow correct implementation of the SUP directive. This is the thrust of the discussions that will be taking place at our conference. The environment in which we operate is changing and Europe's PET industry has realised that it has lost its former global competitiveness. The challenge, and our role as the association representing the complete PET value chain in Europe, is to work to set in place conditions needed for the industry to regain its position and its competitive advantage by innovation and investments in new technologies. *The most recent EU implementing decision relating to the SUP directive defines post-consumer plastic waste as generated from waste "placed on the market" without further clarification. A draft update in February 2024 expanded on the definition to "generated from plastic products that have been supplied for distribution, consumption or use on the market of a Member State or of a third country in the course of a commercial activity", but this was not adopted at the time. †The as-yet-unadopted February 2024 implementing decision laid down a "fuel-use exempt" methodology for calculating chemically recycled content in respect of the SUP directive targets. This led to an objection from the European Parliament's environment committee, although this was rejected in a vote by the parliament. Discussions are ongoing with a new draft implementing decision due early this year. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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