Hurricane Debby halts traffic at southeast US ports
Major ports in the southeast US are closed to vessel traffic as Hurricane Debby made landfall today as a category 1 storm in northern Florida.
Seaport Manatee and the port of Tampa Bay in Florida closed waterways on 3 August, with Seaport Manatee issuing port condition Zulu — where gale force winds are anticipated within 12 hours and port operations are suspended. Port Tampa Bay closed its shipping lanes on 3 August.
Combined DAP and MAP exports from the port of Tampa reached 245,000 metric tonnes (t) between January and May — comprising nearly 91pc of year-to-date offshore export volumes — according to US Census Bureau data. Nearly two-thirds of US ammonium phosphate production capacity is consolidated in central Florida with Mosaic, according to The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) data.
The Port of Savannah, in Georgia, will close today at 3:00pm ET and will remain closed on Tuesday before reopening on Wednesday, according to the Georgia Ports Authority. No vessel activity will be allowed during the closure.
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US services sector expanded in July, jobs grew: Survey
US services sector expanded in July, jobs grew: Survey
Houston, 5 August (Argus) — A measure of US services sector activity grew in July, showing the largest part of the economy expanded last month even as manufacturing contracted. The services purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 51.4 in July from 48.8 in June, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said today. Readings above 50 signal expansion while those under that threshold signal contraction. Services, which account for more than two thirds of the economy, have contracted twice in the last four months, but only three times since early in the Covid-19 pandemic. The report, showing the largest part of the US economy has continued to expand, follows a report on 2 August from the Labor Department that showed only 114,000 jobs were generated in July , much fewer than expected, which sparked a sharp selloff in global stocks, oil and other commodities amid concerns of possible recession. Also last week, the Federal Reserve kept its target rate unchanged, but signaled a cut was likely in September. The business activity/production index in today's report registered 54.5 in July, compared with the 49.6 recorded in June. The new orders index expanded to 52.4 in July, from 47.3 the prior month. The employment index expanded for just a second time in 2024, rising to 51.1 in July from 46.1 the prior month. The report appeared to counter some of the concerns stemming from the July employment report. The prices index rose to 57 from 56.3. "Survey respondents again reported that increased costs are impacting their businesses, with generally positive commentary on business activity being flat or expanding gradually," ISM said. "Comments continued to express a wait-and-see attitude regarding the upcoming presidential election." The ISM services report today follows an ISM report last week showing manufacturing PMI for July fell to 46.6, the deepest contraction in manufacturing since last November, from 48.5 in June. It was the 20th contraction in 21 months. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India faces tricky decision on steel imports
India faces tricky decision on steel imports
Mumbai, 5 August (Argus) — Indian steelmakers have ratcheted up calls for restrictions on imports from China and Vietnam to shield domestic industry from significant harm. But the decision on whether to impose anti-dumping duties or other curbs is likely to be a challenging one for the government, industry sources said. Major domestic mills have urged the government to limit flows from China, as elevated production levels and low local demand prompt the country's mills to keep exporting finished steel at prices significantly below those of domestic Indian material. India became a net importer of finished steel in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, with shipments from China rising by 91pc on the year to 2.7mn t. In April-June this year, China shipped 572,000t of finished steel to India, an increase of 40pc on the year, according to data from the steel ministry's joint plant committee. The Argus fob China hot-rolled coil (HRC) index fell to a four-year low of $476/t at the end of July. HRC offers from China were last reported at $520/t cfr India, although trading firms said there was no buying interest yet at these levels. "China is not competitive. They lose money at these prices. It's predatory pricing, which is detrimental to the future of the industry in India," said Tata Steel's chief executive, TV Narendran, during the company's earnings call. JSW Steel and Jindal Power & Steel have also highlighted pressure from rising Chinese imports, as well as inflows from countries with which India has a free-trade agreement (FTA), such as Vietnam. Vietnam has been a main market for Chinese exports, and a dumping investigation could also be on the cards here. After rising in April and May, domestic Indian HRC prices have been on a downward trajectory, largely because of import bookings. The Argus weekly Indian domestic HRC assessment for 2.5-4.0mm material was 50,800 rupees/t ($603/t) ex-Mumbai on 2 August, excluding goods and services tax, a fall of Rs2,950/t compared with the end of May. No losses for steelmakers While domestic steelmakers' profits have come under pressure, sources say they have not been running into losses yet. JSW Steel's profit fell by 64pc on the year in the quarter ending 30 June, while Tata Steel's first-quarter profit after tax from its India operations declined by 33pc on the year. "The government should not wait for steelmakers to run into losses. Some action must be taken before that happens," an executive at a major Indian steel mill said. The Indian government last imposed anti-dumping duties on imported steel in 2017 , with the threshold for the landed cost of HRC at $489/t. This netted back to $430-440/t fob, an industry source said, adding that Chinese prices still have not fallen to this level yet. "If prices come precipitously close to the levels seen in 2016-17, there would be a definite problem," the source said. While imposing restrictions on imports could benefit Indian mills, any increase in steel prices would also mean additional costs for the infrastructure sector, sources said. The Vietnam question Several sources suggested that restrictions on Vietnamese steel would have a larger impact on domestic prices than curbs on China. Importers of Vietnamese steel do not incur additional duties on the landed price, unlike buyers of Chinese steel, because of India's FTA with ASEAN countries, including Vietnam. There is also talk that Chinese steel is rerouted to India through Vietnam. Finished steel exports from Vietnam to India more than doubled on the year to 737,000t in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Import bookings have increased since Vietnamese steelmaker Formosa Ha Tinh's export licence was renewed by the government's Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) in May. Latest offers from Formosa were heard at $550/t cfr India. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Market sweats potential EU HRC retroactive duties
Market sweats potential EU HRC retroactive duties
London, 5 August (Argus) — The potential imposition of retroactive anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports into the EU could affect trade sooner than anticipated. The European Commission will formally announce its anti-dumping case on Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam this week, after Egypt — the final country to receive diplomatic notice of the case — received its note over the weekend. The formal announcement will probably be made in the EU's official journal on 8 August, sources in Brussels said. European steel association Eurofer has pushed for imports from the four countries to be registered and for retroactive duties to be imposed. Retroactive duties have rarely been imposed in EU steel trade cases, although the commission did take this path in its case against Russian and Chinese cold-rolled coil imports in 2015-16. Retroactive duties are typically imposed 90 days prior to provisional measures taking effect, but this is only possible if imports are registered. The final decision over retroactive duties will be taken at the definitive stage of the investigation. Should the case start on 8 August and provisional duties be imposed after eight months — as is typically the case where dumping is proven — retroactive definitive duties could be imposed on imports dating back to January 2025. This would mean material from these countries clearing customs on 1 January are unlikely to face anti-dumping duties, but imports clearing customs after this date carry the risk of definitive duties, should dumping be proven and retroactive duties are imposed. HRC trade has been slow in recent weeks, owing to a seasonal slowdown in demand. Service centres are opting to manage their inventories and preserve cash flow, rather than restocking. But this could be the best time to make purchases, given the potential impact to imports the possible duties may bring, sources suggest. The countries covered in the case represent more than 50pc of EU HRC imports this year so far . "At this price level... the risk of increases is far higher than the risk of going down," one trading firm said. Another trading source did not understand why EU mills were not being firmer on pricing. Argus ' north European HRC index has fallen by €30.75/t ($34/t) since the start of June, to €604.75/t ex-works on 2 August, while the Italian index dropped by €29.75/t to €600.75/t over the same period. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Advansix expects higher amsul prices yoy in Q3
Advansix expects higher amsul prices yoy in Q3
Houston, 2 August (Argus) — US chemical producer AdvanSix expects ammonium sulfate prices to increase year over year in the third quarter on thin supply, but bearish agricultural fundamentals present a challenge for fertilizer demand. AdvanSix started the third quarter with a "robust" summer fill program for amsul at higher price levels compared to a year earlier. Amsul summer fill values for the Corn Belt released by the company in early July were about $55/st higher year over year. AdvanSix will likely benefit from production outages in Texas following the landfall of Hurricane Beryl in July. Major amsul producer IOC in Pasadena shut down in preparation for the hurricane and remains offline. The producer expects sales volumes to decline in the third quarter compared with the second, typical during the summer season. Additionally, weaker grain fundamentals could soften fertilizer demand further in the third quarter for AdvanSix. Ample corn supplies reported by the US Department of Agriculture and falling corn prices in the US could cause farmers to further defer purchases of fertilizer. The supply-to-use corn ratio in the US is currently estimated at 14pc for the 2024-25 agricultural year, above the historical average, according to the USDA. Longer term, AdvanSix expects agricultural demand for sulfur to grow 3-4pc/yr going forward. The company pointed towards growing recognition in the US and globally that the increase in yield from ammonium sulfate makes the fertilizer a worthwhile investment, including for soybean crops. Total sales volumes across all product lines rose by 5pc in the second quarter on tighter supply in North America. Revenue from ammonium sulfate was largely steady at nearly $140mn, moving up by less than 1pc from the same quarter last year. AdvanSix continued its SUSTAIN program in the second quarter, an effort to convert more standard amsul into granular product. Over a third of the company's granular sales in the second quarter were attributed to increased granular conversion. Granular conversion at the plant reached 68pc year-to-date and is expected to reach 70pc by the end of year. Revenue from Nylon sales increased by 11pc to $103mn, while caprolactam sales increased by 8pc to $81mn. Chemical intermediates sales increased by almost 7pc to $129mn. AdvanSix generated $16.7mn in profits during the second quarter compared with $15.7mn a year prior. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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