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Libya declares force majeure on Esharara crude exports

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 07/08/24

Libya's state-owned oil firm NOC declared force majeure on crude exports from its El Sharara field on 7 August, after production was forcibly shut down earlier this week.

Production from the field heads to the market as the Esharara grade from the Zawia terminal. Eight cargoes of Esharara totalling 5mn bl were scheduled to be exported from Zawia in August, according to loading programmes. A 630,000 bl cargo chartered by Norway's Equinor departed the terminal on 3 August, Kpler data showed.

El Sharara, located in Libya's southwest desert region, was producing 260,000-270,000 b/d before the latest disruption. Exports of Esharara crude from Zawia averaged 163,000 b/d between May and July, according to Kpler.

NOC said the "force majeure situation" would not be applicable to loading and unloading of refined products at Zawia.

Argus understands the field's closure was orchestrated by the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), which controls much of the country's east and south including El Sharara in the southwest. Sources said the order to shut the field came from Saddam Haftar, son of LNA head General Khalifa Haftar.

El Sharara has been a frequent target of armed groups over the past decade for reasons ranging from local grievances to national political ambitions. While some past shutdowns at El Sharara have spread to other oil fields — leading to output losses of up to 1mn b/d — the current outage appears contained.


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10/02/25

Opec+ output policy trumps Trump

Opec+ output policy trumps Trump

London, 10 February (Argus) — A key meeting of Opec+ ministers last week effectively backed the alliance's current output policy, which would not see any production returned to market until April. Opec+ has not, for now at least, heeded US president Donald Trump's call for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil", something it could potentially do by raising output. As things stand, Opec+ members are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts from April, and it intends to do this over an 18-month period rather than a previously scheduled 12 months. When the group took that decision in December, the Opec secretariat said this was "to support market stability" — an implicit nod to the uncertain demand picture and projections of a looming supply surplus in 2025. There appears to be little chance of this being expedited by Trump's call, which he made within days of taking office in January. The producer group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) gave no indication that the alliance intends to change its output policy. But if anything, Trump's call could marginally increase the chances that the alliance finally pushes ahead with its plan to increase output in April — something it has delayed three times. This would have to fit with global supply and demand realities and the interests of the producer group. Opec+ continues to insist that it will only go ahead with the plan if market conditions allow. It is still far from clear whether there will be sufficient room in the market for added Opec+ output this year. One key uncertainty relates to Trump himself and the impact his tariff policies will have on the global economy. For now, the demand picture remains uncertain. Trump's threat to tighten sanctions on Iran and Russia could have a more direct impact on supply, but his plans remain vague. Opec+ delegates continue to monitor market conditions. A decision on whether to proceed with planned increases from April is due in early March. "We do not believe that Opec has the ability to bring back any barrels to the market through the whole of this year," data analytics firm Kpler head analyst Matt Smith said at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Texas this week. "Anything that Saudi Arabia wants to bring back is only going to increase that surplus above what we saw in 2020, and we all know what happened to prices back then." He is not the only one who doubts there is sufficient room in the market for more Opec+ output. Energy watchdog the IEA continues to project a sizeable supply surplus this year, even in the absence of additional Opec+ production. Output reduction Opec+ members subject to targets reduced their collective crude output by 20,000 b/d to 33.51mn b/d in January, Argus estimates (see tables). This fall means Opec+ has slashed its production by 4.01mn b/d since October 2022, when it announced the first of its current round of cuts. Compliance has improved in recent months, with output 340,000 b/d below the collective target of 33.85mn b/d in January. There is still room for improvement. Iraq has slipped back into the red, exceeding its target by 20,000 b/d last month. Gabon was 80,000 b/d above its target. Kazakhstan's compliance has picked up recently, but the start of a new production phase at the Tengiz oil field has raised questions over its willingness to stick to its quota this year. But the group is keeping the pressure on. The statement following the JMMC meeting once again put a large emphasis on the importance of member conformity with production targets. It stressed the need for members that have exceeded their targets to fully deliver on their pledges to compensate for past overproduction. These must be delivered by the end of September. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Non-Opec 9 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 Total 33.51 33.53 33.85 -0.34 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jan Dec Jan target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.88 8.91 8.98 -0.10 Iraq 4.02 3.99 4.00 +0.02 Kuwait 2.42 2.44 2.41 +0.01 UAE 2.87 2.85 2.91 -0.04 Algeria 0.90 0.91 0.91 -0.01 Nigeria 1.51 1.55 1.50 +0.01 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.27 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.25 0.24 0.17 +0.08 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.07 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Iran 3.33 3.40 na na Libya 1.35 1.31 na na Venezuela 0.90 0.90 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.75 26.84 na na †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Russia 8.96 8.97 8.98 -0.02 Oman 0.75 0.75 0.76 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.49 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.49 1.40 1.47 +0.02 Malaysia 0.28 0.33 0.40 -0.12 Bahrain 0.19 0.19 0.20 -0.01 Brunei 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.06 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


10/02/25
News
10/02/25

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit: No major tariff impacts yet: Enbridge


07/02/25
News
07/02/25

Crude Summit: No major tariff impacts yet: Enbridge

Houston, 7 February (Argus) — Canadian midstream company Enbridge said that potential US tariffs on Canadian crude imports have not yet had a major impact on cross-border flows on its 3mn b/d Mainline pipeline system. Enbridge is in a unique position to comment on the US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were set to take effect on 4 February, but were delayed this week until early March. The company operates both the Mainline pipeline system, which it describes as the largest single point of commerce between Canada and the US, as well as the largest US crude export terminal near Corpus Christi, Texas. While Enbridge would not pay the tariffs, as it does not hold title to the crude shipments, its shippers could be subject to higher costs in the form of a 10pc US tariff on Canadian crude imports that could take effect in early March. It could also be affected by a 10pc Chinese retaliatory tariff on US imports, effective from 10 February. "We have not seen any significant disruption in the flows on our Canadian systems yet," Enbridge senior vice president of business development Phil Anderson told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, today. "It is: plan for the worst and hope for the best." Enbridge also owns and operates the Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC) near Corpus Christi, which handles about 25pc of all US crude exports. China accounts for a "relatively small" portion of EIEC shipments, and the Chinese counter-tariffs will not have a significant impact, Anderson said. Corpus Christi crude exports set an all-time high in November 2024 at 2.6mn b/d, besting the previous high of 2.5mn b/d set in August. Enbridge and other Corpus Christi shippers have benefited from a channel-deepening project there that allows them to load more crude onto larger vessels. The Port of Corpus Christi is making progress on the last phases of a channel-deepening project, which will give mid-sized tankers better access to export docks in the port's Inner Harbor. The project aims to increase the channel depth to 54ft from 47ft and widen it to 530ft. The latest phase of the project, which runs from west of the La Quinta ship channel and under the Harbor Bridge to the Chemical Turning Basin, will allow bigger tanker ships to dock at the Sunoco crude export terminal, and is expected to be complete by May 2025, Port of Corpus Christi Authority (POCCA) chief executive Kent Britton told the summit today. Current draft restrictions limit Inner Harbor traffic to smaller Aframax vessels, which can carry about 700,000 bl. A deeper draft will allow for Suezmax vessels to load to their full 1mn bl capacity at the Sunoco terminal. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs


07/02/25
News
07/02/25

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 7 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump is considering announcing "mostly reciprocal tariffs" on an undisclosed number of countries early next week, in a possible shift from a campaign plan to impose universal tariffs of 10-20pc against all imports to the US. Trump did not provide specifics on the idea, but said he would probably have a meeting on 10 or 11 February before making an announcement. The potential rollout of the reciprocal tariffs appears likely to take place after China's planned 10 February date to start collecting a 10pc tariff on crude, coal and LNG from the US that Beijing imposed in response to a 10pc blanket tariff that Trump has placed on Chinese imports. "I think that's the only fair way to do it," Trump said of his plan to "probably" pursue reciprocal tariffs. "That way, nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line, as opposed to a flat fee tariff." Trump has said he views tariffs — which he says is his "favorite word" — as a virtually cost-free way to raise revenue that will cut the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing, without raising prices for goods in the US. But earlier this week, Trump delayed his plan to place an across-the-board 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico just hours before it was set to take effect, as stock markets began to plunge on the threat of the start of a damaging trade war between the US and its two largest trading partners. The vast majority of economists say across-the-board tariffs are an inefficient way of raising revenue, with costs that would fall the hardest on low-income and middle-income US consumers already reeling from years of inflation. US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) on 2 February said kicking off a tariff war with Canada and Mexico "makes 100pc no sense" and would raise costs for US consumers. Trump discussed his reciprocal tariff idea today during a press conference with Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said he wants to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan he estimates is $100bn/yr, primarily by selling the country US oil, LNG and ethanol. Trump said he also spoke with Ishiba about efforts related to the "pipeline in Alaska", an apparent reference to the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which is expected to cost more than $40bn and would require building a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. Ishiba said it was "wonderful" that Trump had lifted a temporary pause on LNG licensing on his first day in office, and said Japan was interested in purchasing US LNG, ethanol, ammonia and other resources as a way to cut down on the US trade deficit with Japan. "If we are able to buy those at a stable and reasonable price, I think it would be a wonderful situation," Ishiba said through a translator. Japan is keen to increase its overall investment in the US to $1 trillion, Ishiba said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX interest: Update


07/02/25
News
07/02/25

Crude Summit:Tariff talk boosts TMX interest: Update

Updates with details from Trans Mountain. Houston, 7 February (Argus) — The potential for tariffs on US imports of Canadian crude have driven shipper interest in exporting from Trans Mountain's docks on the west coast of Canada, as the pipeline's federal operator is weighing plans for expansions to boost the system's capacity by 200,000-300,000 b/d by the end of the decade. The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline, which came on line in May 2024, boosted the total capacity of the Trans Mountain system to 890,000 b/d, opening new avenues for Canadian producers to reach Asian markets. Trans Mountain has seen a "flurry of activity" in booking TMX capacity since US president Donald Trump's administration announced its intent to slap tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, Trans Mountain senior director of business development Jason Balasch told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas. "The last few weeks, all of January, there's been a lot of interest from people who had not yet shipped on the line yet," Balasch said. Those tariffs on Canada and Mexico were set to take effect on 4 February, but Trump this week put them on pause until early March, pointing to progress in negotiations. "The tariffs have opened all level of government's eyes to talk of expansions," Balasch said. "We definitely expected it to drive demand for the dock." The TMX line has run recently at about 80pc of capacity, Balasch said. The 200,000-300,000 b/d expansion of the Trans Mountain system could be completed within four to five years, Balasch said. That expansion would be accomplished mostly by adding pumping capacity to the system's two existing lines. There are no plans to add a third pipeline to the system, he said. "We are focused on the quickest and economical way" to "increase access to the tidewater", he said. "I think everyone sees an egress constraint coming," Balasch said. The unpredictable tariffs situation has put expansion under a "magnifying glass," but Trans Mountain has not yet shopped its plans to shippers. The dual-line Trans Mountain system connects the trading hub of Edmonton, Alberta, to the Westridge Marine Terminal (WMT) in Burnaby, British Columbia, but volumes also go to the Burnaby refinery and southbound to Washington state via the Puget Sound Pipeline. There were 24 vessels loaded at the WMT in January, translating into about 425,000 b/d being exported on Canada's west coast during the month, meaning there is some room to expand the dock's 630,000 b/d capacity. Incremental heavy Canadian crude from Trans Mountain could be destined for China, as the US west coast is capped out at 200,000 b/d, Matt Smith, lead oil analyst Americas at Kpler, told the conference. That would require China to likely scale back on crudes from other origins amid slowing demand, Smith said. "Over the last couple of years Chinese crude imports have essentially flat-lined as their refinery runs have flat-lined," said Smith. This week's delay suggests the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports "are not going to come to fruition", Smith said. "There is a willingness to reach an agreement." By Chris Baltimore and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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