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US housing construction weakens in July, PVC steady

  • Market: Petrochemicals
  • 16/08/24

Housing permits and starts both fell in July to four-year lows as persistently high borrowing costs continue to weigh on the housing market, even as PVC demand has remained steady.

Total housing starts fell by 6.8pc to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238mn in July from June's revised numbers, according to the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is down 16pc from July 2023, the month the Federal Reserve hiked its target lending rate to its current level, the highest in 23 years. It represents the lowest rate of housing starts since 1.053mn in May 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic had closed down much of the US economy.

The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market has reported fairly steady demand for much of the summer, but buyers and converters were increasingly warning of softening order books as the months progressed. Some market participants have even said the focus is shifting to inventory management, a discussion that rarely happens this early in the year.

Despite the broadly flat demand, higher feedstock costs and supply disruptions from Hurricane Beryl in early July led producers to secure a 1¢/lb increase for PVC contracts in July, with Argus assessed contract prices at 61.5¢/lb. PVC contract prices are up from 57.5/lb in July 2023.

Permits were issued at a rate of 1.396mn in July. This is down 4pc from June and 7pc down from July 2023. This was the lowest rate of permit issuance since June 2020.

High borrowing costs appear to have a more acutely negative impact on the housing market the longer they remain elevated. Starts and permits were both at their lowest rate since the middle of 2020 when Covid-19 paralyzed a large portion of the US housing market and the economy was just emerging from a brief, sharp recession.

Single-family starts extended their decline into a fifth month, down 14pc to a rate of 851,000 in July from the prior month and off by 15pc from July 2023. Starts on multifamily structures of five or more units climbed 12pc to 363,000 units started in July from the prior month but were down by 24pc from a year earlier

Single-family housing permits were issued at a rate of 938,000 units in July, down 0.1pc from June and marking the sixth straight month of decreases. This was 1.6pc lower than July 2023. Multifamily permits fell by 12.4pc on the month.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start lowering borrowing costs at its next policy meeting next month after holding its target rate at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc since July of last year. Consumer inflation eased to an annual 2.9pc in July, the lowest in three years.

The labor market has also shown signs of weakening among other softer data, including recent slides in stock prices, that triggered recession concerns. This has all led futures markets to give near certain odds of rate cuts beginning next month. They will be too late to shore up the housing market this year, but a sustained pace of rate cuts into 2025 may boost construction and sales next year.


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04/04/25

US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs

US PE exports could lose market share on new tariffs

Houston, 4 April (Argus) — US polyethylene (PE) traders are concerned that retaliatory tariffs announced this week by China and being considered by the European Union will close the door to two of the biggest markets for US resin exports. China announced today it will impose a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, while the EU is in the process of finalizing countermeasures this week, all in response to widespread tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump on 2 April. "This closes off China," said one US export trader. "And it looks like a full stop in Europe too." The US exported 2.4mn t of PE to China in 2024, representing 16.8pc of total US PE exports, according to data from Global Trade Tracker. Exports to the EU totaled 2.26mn t, representing 15pc of all US exports. US PE exports in 2024 totaled 14.2mn t, with exports representing 47pc of total sales last year. During the previous Trump administration, China provided waivers for certain tariffs, including on some PE grades. Some market participants have said that may be possible again, while others have said they see it as less likely, as China has become more self-sufficient, and has other alternative suppliers, such as the Middle East. "(China) is in a better position to impose tariffs on PE today than they were in 2018," said one North American PE producer. It will be difficult for US producers to make up for the loss of market share in China and the EU, which could result in producers needing to slow operating rates. For now, markets in Africa, Latin America and southeast Asia, remain open for US material, but traders are concerned that other top trading partners could also retaliate against the US, closing off additional markets. "There are not enough places to go with this stuff," the trader said. With limited export opportunities, the North American PE producer agreed that production would likely need to slow to keep material from backing up in the domestic market and causing domestic prices to fall. "The last time we saw tariff action from China, there was an impact on the domestic market," the producer said. "Pricing went down." For this week, US PE export pricing has held fairly steady as the market absorbs the tariff news. But market participants said they believe prices could move down in the coming weeks if production is not slowed. By Michelle Klump Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US-origin PE, PP appear in provisional UK tariff list


04/04/25
News
04/04/25

US-origin PE, PP appear in provisional UK tariff list

London, 4 April (Argus) — The UK government has included polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) imports from the US in a list of products that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. All PE and PP HS codes appear on the list published on 3 April. The document is at this stage for consultation and only indicative of goods that could fall under the review. No details are known so far on the tariff levels nor when they could be implemented, although the deadline for responses is 1 May. This comes after US President Donald Trump's announcement on 2 April of a minimum 10pc global levy on imports from all trade partners, in addition to existing levies. The tariff on imports from the UK is 10pc, and from the EU 20pc. The UK imported 173,000t of PE from the US in 2024 and 7,000t of PP. LLDPE under HS code 390140 was omitted from the UK tariff list, a grade which accounts for 45pc of all UK PE imports from the US. This means that 96,000t of PE would fall under the provisional tariffs. The UK has "a range of levers" at its disposal for responding to the US' levies and will continue speaking with Washington on an "economic prosperity deal", UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on 3 April. The import tariffs imposed by the US on 2 April present a "significant risk" to the global economy, according to the IMF . President Trump is holding firm on the tariffs , even as US stock prices tumble, but other US politicians are less convinced. The US Senate is attempting to block tariffs , but legislative action is unlikely to become law. By Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Little impact on Brazil polymers from US tariffs


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Little impact on Brazil polymers from US tariffs

Sao Paulo, 3 April (Argus) — The overall 10pc tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian exports on 2 April are unlikely to significantly impact Brazil's polymers industry, as polymers exports to the US are minimal. Brazil's polypropylene (PP) exports to the US during January-February 2025 hit 1,964t, down 22pc when compared with the same period of 2024, according to data from Brazilian trade ministry database Comexstat. The figure represents just 5pc of Brazil's total PP exports in the period, with the US ranked at the 12th most important destination. In polyethylene (PE), Brazil exported 1,335t to the US during Jan-Feb 2025, down 30pc year over year. This represents 1pc of Brazil's PE exports in the first month, with the US ranked 18th. There were no exports from Brazil to the US related to polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyethylene thereftalate (PET), expanded polystyrene (EPS), and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) in January and February. However, Braskem, a Brazilian petrochemical company and the largest producer of thermoplastic resins in the Americas, felt the tariffs' impact on its shares today. Braskem's shares experienced a decline at the São Paulo stock exchange B3, with the stock trading at BRL 10.31 ($1.84) at noon, down 2.46pc from its previous close of BRL 10.57. In intraday performance the stock opened at BRL 10.50, reaching a high of BRL 10.84 and a low of BRL 10.30. The movement reflects ongoing market volatility and investor sentiment surrounding the company. The Brazilian government criticized the US decision, describing the additional 10pc tariff as a violation of the country's commitments to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The measure adds to previous 25pc tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, further complicating Brazil's trade portfolio with the US. US trade surplus According to Brazil's foreign relations ministry (MRE), US government data indicates that the US achieved a $7bn trade surplus with Brazil in goods in 2024. When including services, the surplus totaled $28.6bn, making Brazil the third-largest contributor to the US's global trade surplus. Over the past 15 years, the US has consistently recorded significant surpluses with Brazil, amounting to $410bn in goods and services. The US rationale for the 10pc tariff — to restore balance and achieve "trade reciprocity" is inconsistent with the reality of enduring trade surpluses, the ministry said. In response, Brazil intends to collaborate with its private sector to protect domestic workers and companies while defending the multilateral trade system. The Brazilian government stated that it remains open to dialogue with the US to reverse the tariffs and minimize their harmful effects. At the same time, it is evaluating all possible actions to ensure reciprocal trade relations, including appealing to the WTO. The government highlighted the recent approval of the Economic Reciprocity Bill by the Congress, reinforcing its willingness to adopt reciprocal measures if necessary. Anti-dumping duties possible The Brazilian government on 14 November opened a possible measure relating to an anti-dumping investigation against PE resins imported from the US and Canada. Trump's promises to protect US industries have created uncertainties about whether Brazil would want to move forward with PE anti-dumping duties, but now it could be used as a possible retaliation for the new tariffs. In 2024, total PE imports in Brazil reached 1.959mn t, increasing 40pc year on year, with North America representing 77pc of market share. By Fred Fernandes and Terezinha Miranda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US plastics recyclers plagued by limited supply


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

US plastics recyclers plagued by limited supply

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — US plastics recyclers are having trouble sourcing sufficient feedstocks because of stagnant collection volumes, according to speakers at the 2025 Plastics Recycling Conference this week in Maryland. For producers of recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET), recycled polypropylene (rPP) and recycled polyethylene (rPE), feedstock supply tightness has increased significantly this year. Rising demand and stagnant volumes are squeezing an industry that was already low on feedstocks, causing pricing for recycled feedstocks to jump dramatically over the past six months. Since October, prices for natural high density polyethylene (HDPE) bales have more than doubled, polypropylene bale prices have increased by 84pc, and US west coast PET bales have increased in price by 34pc, according to Argus data. While prices for each material are affected by different sets of factors, they all face tighter supplies, because the US is not collecting enough recyclables to meet demand for recycled polymers. While recyclers have increased their input capacities and consumer products companies have purchased more recycled resin, collection volumes for the US remained stagnant in 2021 and 2022, according to the latest data from the Association of Plastics Recyclers and Stina, and recyclers say the situation has not improved. "We're really bumping up against a ceiling in terms of volume for rPET production," said Lauren Laibach, director of data services at the National Association for PET Container Resources (NAPCOR). NAPCOR's 2023 PET recycling report found that the US's gross recycle rate rose to 33pc, a 4pc increase from 2022, but the rate increase was largely a result of fewer PET bottles being available for recycling. Improving collection volumes of recyclables is a problem mostly out of recyclers' hands, as state and local policy-makers are largely responsible for improving rates and investing in recycling infrastructure. However, extended producer responsibility (EPR) programs, including in Oregon and California, are expected to boost investment in recycling infrastructure. Recyclers in particularly dire situations, such as flake producers on the US west coast, may require more legislation if they are to survive. PET recycler Evergreen shut down its flake and wash line in California this week due to financial difficulties with producing flake. Bottle deposit systems, a tax credit for recyclers or a prioritization of US material under EPR schemes could help improve domestic supply of PET bottles, Laibach said. "We can't expect any sustainable, long-term improvement without policy intervention," Laibach said. By Zach Kluver Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil bets on plastics despite global uncertainties


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

Brazil bets on plastics despite global uncertainties

Sao Paulo, 28 March (Argus) — Brazil's plastics industry expects investments of R10.5bn/yr ($1.8bn/yr) for the next few years despite potential tariff threats that could upend trading relationships, plastic industry association Abiplast said. Factory expansions, advancements in sustainable packaging, new recycling technologies and enhancements in reverse logistics will fuel the investments, the association said at its Plasticos Brasil industry event. Despite the optimism, Latin American polymers markets are experiencing a period of uncertainty caused by global market disruptions resulting from tariff threats by US president Donald Trump and other factors. The threats of tariffs and retaliations has disturbed traditional plastic resin flows, resulting in lower prices throughout the region, with the effects most evident in the region's largest market, Brazil. A global polymer trader told Argus that polyethylene (PE) prices have reached record lows, with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) blow molding grades dropping close to $900/t during the week, compared with the $1,040–1,080/t range on 27 February. Other PE grades, as well as polypropylene (PP) prices, have followed a similar downward trend. On the other hand, offers of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) grades are limited, but the scarcity is not pushing these grades upward, according to the source. Instead of taking advantage of discounts, many buyers are postponing purchasing decisions in anticipation of further price drops, leading to fewer deals. Resin produced in the US and the Middle East is also being sold by Chinese traders at prices significantly lower than fresh offers from the original producers. These additional volumes, offered as re-exports, have depressed global prices, particularly in Latin America and especially in Brazil. As a result, some traders continue to lose market share in Brazil, they told Argus. This trend is part of a downturn in the petrochemical industry's cycle, which some traders said will persist for at least a couple more years. Despite these challenges, many market participants were emphatic that they closed many contracts and that they remain optimistic. Regional developments Brazilian chemical giant Braskem told Argus that Mexican joint venture Braskem Idesa's new ethane import terminal is scheduled to start up in May. With the move, the Mexican JV will serve all of its PE plant's feedstock needs with ethane imported from the US. It remains unclear if the Trump administration's threats about imposing fees on Chinese-made vessels when they dock in US ports could impede Braskem's strategy in the region. Braskem's first vessel, the Chinese-built 19,000t Brilliant Future , recently began transporting ethane to Braskem Idesa's complex from the US and a second vessel, with similar specifications and the same route, will be delivered in June. Brazil's Unipar Carbocloro new $35mn plant in Camacari, in northeastern Bahia state, is gradually ramping up its capacity utilization as operations start, with an official opening scheduled for early April. The plant is designed to produce 10,000 t/yr of chlorine, 12,000 t/yr of caustic soda, 25,000 t/yr of hydrochloric acid and 20,000 t/yr of sodium hypochlorite. Unipar also said that the gradual resumption of operations at its Bahia Blanca, Argentina, plant is progressing as planned. The plant went off line on 7 March because of torrential rains. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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