Thin exports could add to US jet fuel surplus

Market: Oil products
20/08/24

US jet fuel stockpiles that are already at a 14-year high for August could build even further if exports continue to lag.

Waterborne jet fuel loadings from the US Gulf coast are on pace for the lowest monthly average since March 2021 at 32,800 b/d through the first 20 days of August, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. Departures are down by 31pc from the same period last year and lag behind average daily July volumes by 71pc.

This month's drop in export loadings follows a July in which Gulf coast jet fuel discharged in other countries trailed year-earlier levels by 25pc.

US Gulf coast jet fuel discharged in Mexico last month was down by 7.6pc from July 2023, while arrivals in Mexico through the first 20 days of August are so far little changed from August 2023. US Gulf coast jet fuel deliveries in Canada this month are down by 25pc on the year, Vortexa data shows.

The dip in Gulf coast exports could add to US supplies at a time when domestic jet fuel demand may taper as the summer travel season nears its end. Passenger screenings at US airports fell to an 11-week low last week, according to US Transportation Security Administration data.

Falling demand and building inventories helped sink US jet fuel prices to multi-month lows on Monday as front-month Nymex diesel futures fell by 2.8pc. Colonial Pipeline jet fuel at the Gulf coast fell on Monday by 7.45¢/USG to $2.12/US and Buckeye jet fuel prices at the New York Harbor shed 7.27¢/USG to $2.17/USG, both the lowest since May 2023.

Jet fuel stocks swell in August

Total US jet fuel stocks during the week ended 9 August swelled by 12pc to 46.24mn bl, the highest for any August week since 2010, according to the latest estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Still, US inventories have eased by nearly 2pc since peaking in late July at 47.18mn bl, the highest for any week since October 2018.

Inventories have climbed across much of the US, with stocks in the Atlantic coast, Gulf coast, and west coasts notching multi-year highs for August weeks. Atlantic coast jet fuel inventories in the week ended 2 August were the highest for August since 1990 at 13.13mn bl, while Gulf coast stocks in the following week reached a three-year high for August at 14.26mn bl. In the US west coast, jet fuel stocks were the highest for any August week in at least 34 years at 11.82mn bl the week ended 9 August, EIA data show.

The US midcontinent is the lone US region where inventories are down on the year, as refinery issues have stunted production in the Chicago, Illinois, area. ExxonMobil's 252,000 b/d Joliet refinery in Channahon, Illinois, reported a process unit upset from 17-18 August, extending weeks of issues stemming from a power outage in mid-July. This has prompted viable arbitrage economics between the US Gulf coast and Chicago since 25 July, with Chicago prices averaging a 16.91¢/USG premium to the Gulf coast during that stretch. The arbitrage opportunity for sending Gulf coast jet fuel to the New York Harbor has been closed on paper since 13 August.

By Jared Ainsworth

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

23/04/25

Pemex Olmeca refinery exports first diesel cargo

Mexico City, 23 April (Argus) — Mexico exported its first ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) cargo from state-owned Pemex's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, according to vessel tracking data and market sources. The MR tanker Torm Singapore loaded 300,000 bl of ULSD at the Dos Bocas port on 28 March. It discharged about 40,000 bl at Seaport Canaveral near Orlando, Florida, Kpler data shows. The remaining 260,000 bl were discharged at the Yabucoa port in Puerto Rico. The Olmeca refinery began construction during the former administration of president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and was symbolically inaugurated in 2022, but has faced multiple challenges and start-up woes since. Its initial construction costs have doubled to over $17bn. Olmeca started producing ULSD last year , using a distillate feedstock produced at the 190,000 b/d Madero refinery, as Olmeca's crude distillation unit has faced multiple delays. The refinery is still in a testing phase in 2025. It processed about 6,800 b/d of crude in February, Pemex latest data show. Olmeca was originally touted as a key component of the government's desired road fuels self-sufficiency policy. But Pemex's trading arm PMI has also studied lucrative ULSD export opportunities in Florida, the Caribbean and Central America, market sources told Argus . These areas depend heavily on imported diesel and face infrastructure constraints. Earlier in March, Pemex shipped internally about 280,000 bl of gasoline from Olmeca to ports in Veracruz, according to Kpler Data. Olmeca's most viable domestic fuel distribution routes remain tank trucks and vessels, which could then discharge in other terminals on Mexico's east coast. Olmeca's limited domestic fuel sales are made directly to area fuel retailers from southern Veracruz and Tabasco, who send trucks directly to the terminal for loading, according to market sources. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Bio-bunker sales in Rotterdam down in 1Q

23/04/25

News

23/04/25

Bio-bunker sales in Rotterdam down in 1Q

London, 23 April (Argus) — Sales of marine biodiesel blends in Rotterdam fell for the third consecutive quarter in January-March as demand shifted east of Suez. Port data for the first quarter of 2025 show marine biodiesel blend sales declined by 12pc compared with the previous three months and by 60pc compared with the same period last year. The decline was underpinned by lower prices in Singapore. B24 dob Singapore — a blend comprising very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) — averaged a $36/t discount against B30 advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 dob ARA in the first quarter, and a $129.74/t discount against B30 Ucome dob ARA. This price dynamic made Singapore an attractive bunker hub for those shipowners opting to use biodiesel blends to help their customers meet sustainability goals. It also attracted demand from shipowners bound by the FuelEU maritime regulations introduced in January this year. The regulations require a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships travelling into, out of and within EU waters, but energy consumed from blends bunkered in Singapore can be mass balanced to be fully accounted for under the scope of the rules. A pooling mechanism within the regulations also allows vessels operating on the east-west route to utilise compliance generated from marine biodiesel blends bunkered in Singapore across other ships that operate solely in Europe. While biodiesel bunker sales in Rotterdam fell, biomethanol sales at the port soared almost sixfold in January-March compared with a year earlier. The sharp rise in demand reflects the rollout of FuelEU Maritime , higher mandates in Europe for the use of renewables in transport this year and changes to regulations on the carryover of renewable fuels tickets in Germany and the Netherlands . Sales of conventional bunker fuels in Rotterdam edged up by a more modest 1pc on the quarter and by 7pc on the year. Sales of high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) overtook those of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), reversing the trend of the previous quarter despite the imminent addition of the Mediterranean Sea as an Emission Control Area (ECA). Ships without scrubbers that sail through ECA zones must use fuels with a maximum sulphur content of 0.1pc, such as marine gasoil (MGO) and ultra low sulphur fuiel oil (ULSFO). LNG bunker sales in Rotterdam fell by the 13pc on the quarter in January-March, reflecting a price rally at the Dutch TTF gas hub in late January and early February. The Argus northwest Europe LNG bunker price stood at a two-year high of €64.35/MWh on 6 February. LNG bunker sales were still higher than in the first quarter last year, which likely stems from the introduction of the FuelEU Maritime regulations. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Natália Coelho, Gabriel Tassi Lara, Evelina Lungu and Cerys Edwards. Rotterdam bunker sales t Fuel 1Q25 4Q24 1Q24 q-o-q % y-o-y % VLSFO 789,218 810,831 680,782 -2.7 15.9 ULSFO 187,031 193,567 176,797 -3.4 5.8 HSFO 829,197 780,437 818,028 6.2 1.4 MGO & MDO 393,071 395,903 383,409 -0.7 2.5 Conventional total 2,198,517 2,180,738 2,059,016 0.8 7 Biofuel blends 104,037 118,201 262,634 -12 -60.4 LNG (m³) 230,129 263,068 215,247 -12.5 6.9 biomethanol 5,490 930 0 490.3 na Port of Rotterdam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

India, Saudi Arabia to establish two Indian refineries

23/04/25

News

23/04/25

India, Saudi Arabia to establish two Indian refineries

Mumbai, 23 April (Argus) — India and Saudi Arabia will collaborate on establishing two refineries and petrochemical projects in India, according to an Indian government release today. Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met Saudi prime minister Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah on 22 April, as part of the India–Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council. Saudi Arabia in 2019 had pledged to invest $100bn in India in multiple areas including energy, petrochemicals, infrastructure, technology, fintech, digital infrastructure, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and health. The government did not disclose further details, but industry sources said that one of the two refineries might be Indian state-run BPCL's planned refinery in Andhra Pradesh , which Saudi Arabia's state-controlled Saudi Aramco may join as an investor. The other one might be a refinery in Gujarat, under a partnership with Indian upstream firm ONGC and Aramco. But plans for a 1.2mn b/d refinery in Ratnagiri in collaboration with IOC and Adnoc have mostly been ruled out, because of logistical issues relating to the size of the refinery and land acquisition hurdles, among others. Saudi Arabia is the third-largest crude supplier to India, making up 15pc or 712,000 b/d of India's total imports in January-March, data from oil analytics firm Vortexa show. Saudi Arabia's share in the Indian market has declined, after Russia became India's biggest supplier following its war with Ukraine. Modi's trip to the Middle East comes close on the heels of US vice president JD Vance's visit to India on 21 April. The visit included negotiations for an India-US bilateral trade agreement and efforts towards enhancing co-operation in energy, defence, strategic technologies and other areas. JD Vance in India Vance said on 22 April at his speech in Jaipur that India will benefit from US energy exports and said the US wants to help India explore its own considerable natural resources, including its offshore natural gas reserves and critical mineral supplies. US president Donald Trump has pushed India to step up its purchases of US crude and LNG. Crude imports from the US doubled on the month to 289,000 b/d in March, of which 65,000 b/d was Canadian Cold Lake crude, according to trade analytics firm Kpler. The visits come at a time when geopolitical and trade uncertainty has risen, because of Trump's volatile tariff policies. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

FERC commissioner Phillips resigns from agency

22/04/25

News

22/04/25

FERC commissioner Phillips resigns from agency

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Democratic commissioner Willie Phillips has resigned from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) after serving more than three years at an agency responsible for permitting natural gas infrastructure and regulating wholesale power markets. Phillips' departure will clear the way for President Donald Trump to nominate a replacement at FERC, who once confirmed by the US Senate would provide Republicans a 3-2 majority for the first time since 2021. Phillips, whose term was not set to expire until June 2026, had a reputation for negotiating bipartisan deals on contentious orders involving pipelines and power market issues in the two years he served as FERC's chairman under former president Joe Biden. Phillips has yet to release a statement explaining his abrupt resignation. But Trump has already fired Democratic commissioners and board members at other agencies that, like FERC, are structured as independent from the White House. Two of the fired Democrats, who were serving at the US Federal Trade Commission, have filed a lawsuit that argues their removal was unlawful under a 1935 decision by the US Supreme Court. The White House did not respond to a question on whether it had pressured Phillips to resign. FERC chairman Mark Christie, a Republican, offered praise for Phillips as a "dedicated and selfless public servant" who sought to "find common ground and get things done to serve the public interest". Christie for months has been downplaying the threats to FERC's independence caused by Trump's executive order that asserts sweeping control over FERC's agenda. Energy companies have come to depend on FERC in serving as independent arbiter in disputes over pipeline tariffs and electricity markets, without the consideration of political preferences of the White House. Former FERC chairman Neil Chatterjee, a Republican who served in Trump's first term, said in a social media post it was "disappointing" to see Phillips pushed out after he "played it straight" in his work at the agency. As chairman, Phillips was able to authorize a "massive LNG project" — the 28mn t/yr CP2 project — at a time when Biden had sought to pause LNG licensing, Chatterjee said. Separately, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on 21 April, after the US Senate voted 52-44 earlier this month in favor of his confirmation. Atkins was previously the chief executive of financial consulting firm Patomak Global Partners and served as an SEC commissioner from 2002-08. Republicans will now have a 3-1 majority at the SEC. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

22/04/25

News

22/04/25

Tariff ‘shock’ prompts IMF to cut growth outlook

Washington, 22 April (Argus) — Global economic growth is expected to be significantly lower in 2025-26 than previously anticipated because of the steep tariffs President Donald Trump is pursuing for most imports and the uncertainty his policies are generating, the IMF said. The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released today, forecasts the global economy will grow by 2.8pc in 2025 and 3pc in 2026. That compares with the 3.3pc/yr growth for 2025-26 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. Today's forecast is based on the tariffs that Trump had in place as of 4 April, before he paused steep tariffs on most countries and escalated tariffs on China. These barriers had pushed up the effective US tariff rate to levels "not seen in a century", the IMF said. While Trump has altered his tariff levels repeatedly, he has imposed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most imports, a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, a 25pc tariff on some imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 145pc tariff on most imports from China. "This on its own is a major negative shock to growth," the IMF said. "The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook." IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The US and its closest trading partners appear to be among those hardest hit by tariffs and corresponding trade countermeasures. The IMF's baseline scenario forecasts US growth at 1.8pc this year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast the IMF released in January, reflecting higher policy uncertainty, trade tensions and softer demand outlook. Mexico's economy is now projected to shrink by 0.3pc in 2025, rather than grow by 1.4pc, while Canada's growth is forecast at 1.4pc in 2025, down from 2pc. The release of the IMF report comes as Trump has given no indications of a shift in thinking on tariffs, which he says are generating billions of dollars for the US and will prompt companies to relocate their manufacturing capacity to the US. "THE BUSINESSMEN WHO CRITICIZE TARIFFS ARE BAD AT BUSINESS, BUT REALLY BAD AT POLITICS. THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND OR REALIZE THAT I AM THE GREATEST FRIEND THAT AMERICAN CAPITALISM HAS EVER HAD!" Trump wrote on social media on 20 April. The next day, major stock markets indexes declined by more than 2pc, continuing their crash from when Trump began announcing his tariff policies. Trump on 21 April escalated his attacks against US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower interest rates as Trump has demanded. There could be a "SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late" — his nickname for Powell — "a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump wrote. The IMF also ratcheted down its expectations for the Chinese economy. China's economy is expected to grow by 4pc/yr in 2025-26, down from the 4.6 and 4.5pc, respectively, the IMF was anticipating in January. The euro area is forecast to grow by 0.8pc in 2025 and 1.2pc in 2026, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the IMF's previous forecast. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more