Libya's parliament speaker warns of oil blockade

Market: Crude oil
23/08/24

The speaker of Libya's eastern-based parliament has warned of a possible oil blockade over an attempt to replace the central bank governor.

"Replacing the governor in the current situation may result in shutting down oil and stopping the transfer of its revenues to the central bank," said Aguila Saleh, whose parliament is supported by eastern-based general Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA).

The LNA has imposed several politically motivated oil blockades in the past few years, which have wiped out huge chunks of Libya's nominal 1.2mn b/d of crude production. The LNA ordered the shutdown of the El Sharara field earlier this month, resulting in around 250,000 b/d being shut in. Libya's current output is around 1mn b/d.

Libya's Tripoli-based Presidential Council issued an order on 18 August to replace central bank governor Sadiq al-Kabir, who has resisted efforts to remove him. Libya's oil export revenues flow into the central bank, making it one of the country's most powerful institutions.

The UN's Libya mission on 22 August called for the dispute to be resolved peacefully. The mission "expresses grave concerns about reports of mobilisation of forces in Tripoli, including the threats to use force to resolve the crisis surrounding the Central Bank of Libya," it said.

Libya is politically fragmented, with armed groups propping up rival administrations in the east and west. The move against al-Kabir threatens to destabilise a fragile peace that has held since 2020, when eastern and western based military forces reached a ceasefire agreement.

By Aydin Calik

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05/05/25

California refinery closures panic politicians

Houston, 5 May (Argus) — California could lose up to 17pc of its refining capacity within a year, triggering major concerns about its tightly supplied and frequently volatile products market. US independent Valero announced on 16 April that it will shut or repurpose its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco by April 2026. The firm is also evaluating strategic alternatives for its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles. And independent Phillips 66 said in October that it would shut its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery in the fourth quarter of this year. Valero's Benicia announcement brought a quick reaction from state officials. Governor Gavin Newsom on 21 April urged regulators at the California Energy Commission (CEC) to work closely with refiners through "high-level, immediate engagement" to make sure Californians have access to transport fuels. He has ordered them to recommend by 1 July any changes to California's approach that are needed to ensure adequate fuel supply during its energy transition. The message appears to have hit home. The CEC delayed a vote on new refinery resupply rules to provide time for additional feedback and consultation with stakeholders after the Valero announcement. The CEC also plans to introduce a rule this year for minimum inventory requirements at refineries in the state as well as possible rules on setting a refiner margin cap. The new rules are part of an effort by Newsom to mitigate fuel price volatility in California, including the signing of two pieces of legislation known as AB X2-1 and SB X1-2. Refiners have been unhappy with the state's regulatory and enforcement environment for some time. It is "the most stringent and difficult" in North America owing to 20 years of policies pursuing a move away from fossil fuels, Valero chief executive Lane Riggs says. The long and short of it Refinery closures are fuelling long and short-term supply concerns in California. The most immediate is an anticipated supply crunch at the end of this summer. Phillips 66's plan to shut the Los Angeles refinery by October will deal a significant blow to the state's refining capacity and is likely to occur at a time when Californian gasoline prices are most prone to volatility. The US west coast is an isolated market, many weeks sailing time from alternative supply sources in east Asia or the US Gulf coast. California's strict product specifications further limit who can step in when refinery output falls. The state sometimes sees price spikes in late summer and early autumn because the switch from summer gasoline blends leaves local inventories low while in-state refineries adjust to producing winter grades. California gasoline prices spiked in September 2022 when stocks fell to a nine-year low on the west coast. Spot deliveries hit a record $2.45/USG premium to Nymex Rbob futures in the Los Angeles market at the time (see graph). Production problems at several refineries in southern California led to another spot price surge in September 2023. The California Air Resources Board (Carb) permitted an earlier switch to cheaper winter gasoline production in response to both events. Refinery closures will force California to rely on imports in the longer term, leaving the state exposed to stretched supply lines. State regulators' proposed solutions have raised eyebrows. The CEC's Transportation Fuels Assessment report in August last year included a policy option in which California would buy and own refineries, which the state is not pursuing. Another option involves state-owned products reserves to allow rapid deployment of fuel when needed. The CEC and Carb regulators will also release a draft transportation fuels transition plan later this year. By Eunice Bridges and Jasmine Davis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Crude futures slump after Opec+ output decision

05/05/25

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05/05/25

Crude futures slump after Opec+ output decision

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Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

03/05/25

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03/05/25

Opec+ eight agree accelerated hike for June: Update

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members has agreed to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, the Opec secretariat said Saturday. As it did for May, the group will again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision means that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June is somewhat surprising, given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. But the eight today pointed to "current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as a key factor in its latest decision. It reiterated, as it has in the past, that the gradual monthly increases "may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." As was the case for May, delegates said that the main driver for the June hike was again a desire to send a message to those countries that have persistently breached their production targets since the start of last year — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq, which each have significant overproduction to compensate for through the middle of next year. "This measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation," the secretariat said. This group of eight is due to next meet on 1 June to review market conditions and decide on July production levels. By Nader Itayim, Aydin Calik and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

03/05/25

News

03/05/25

Opec+ eight to agree another accelerated hike for June

London, 3 May (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members look set to today to accelerate, for a second consecutive month, their plan to unwind some of their production cuts, four delegates told Argus . As it did for May, the group would again raise its collective output target by 411,000 b/d in June, three times as much as it had planned in its original roadmap to gradually unwind 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts by the middle of next year. The original plan envisaged a slow and steady unwind over 18 months from April, with monthly increments of about 137,000 b/d. But today's decision would mean that the eight — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan — will have unwound almost half of the 2.2mn b/d cut in the space of just three months. The decision to maintain this accelerated pace into June would be somewhat surprising, particularly given the weakness in oil prices and the outlook for the global economy. The eight's decision last month to deliver a three-in-one hike in May was seen as a key reason for the recent slide in oil prices, alongside US President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Front month Ice Brent futures have fallen by about $13/bl since early April to stand at just over $61/bl. While Opec+ has said that it is acting to support an expected rise in summer demand, the decision to speed up the output increases once again appears to be driven by a desire to send a message to countries that have persistently breached their production targets — most notably Kazakhstan and Iraq. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

02/05/25

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02/05/25

Eight Opec+ members weigh further acceleration

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