Australian canola output to fall in 2024-25: AOF
Australian canola production is expected to fall in 2024-25 following a smaller expected harvest area and a mixed crop outlook across regions, according to the Australian Oilseeds Federation's (AOF) August crop report.
The AOF projects canola production to fall by 367,000t to 5.44mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24. The area harvested is expected to fall by 356,000 hectares (ha) to 3.24mn ha, which is 36,000 ha more than the AOF's forecast made in June.
Production is set to fall in all states, except New South Wales (NSW), which is anticipated to increase by 330,000t to 1.67mn t in 2024-25 from 2023-24 despite a smaller harvest area.
NSW cropping regions have benefited from favourable rainfall and good soil moisture levels and are expected to reach average or above average yields. But crops in southern and southwestern regions are behind on typical growth and will need continuing favourable seasonal conditions to reach below average yield potential. The AOF also warned that more advanced crops are subject to frost risk.
The largest harvested area reduction was in Western Australia (WA), which accounted for 45pc of total production in 2023-24, according to AOF sourced estimates. Growers reduced their canola plantings because of a hot and dry summer and the absence of a material rainfall event to start the growing season during April-May. Further reductions resulted as crops were abandoned and resown with alternative crops.
The US Department of Agriculture expects a larger crop in 2024-25, projecting Australian canola output at 5.5mn t in the 2024-25 marketing year.
| Australian canola harvest area, production | |||
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 | y-o-y ± | |
| Harvest area (ha) | |||
| NSW | 866,000 | 820,000 | -5% |
| Victoria | 601,000 | 600,000 | -0% |
| South Australia | 284,000 | 260,000 | -8% |
| WA | 1,845,000 | 1,560,000 | -15% |
| Total | 3,596,000 | 3,240,000 | -10% |
| Production (t) | |||
| NSW | 1,340,000 | 1,670,000 | 25% |
| Victoria | 1,410,000 | 1,245,000 | -12% |
| South Australia | 468,000 | 400,000 | -15% |
| WA | 2,584,000 | 2,120,000 | -18% |
| Total | 5,802,000 | 5,435,000 | -6% |
| Source: AOF |
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