Coal developments at odds with Cop fossil fuel pledge
Coal market developments, particularly in India and China, are at odds with the direction of recent UN climate summits, including Cop 28 in Dubai last year, which set the stage for the "beginning of the end" for the fossil fuel era.
Despite calls to accelerate the phase-down of unabated coal-fired power generation, global coal trade is set to reach a record high of more than 1.5bn t this year, surpassing last year's 1.38bn t. Coal-fired power is likely to remain resilient, supported by higher electricity demand growth in China and India, according to energy watchdog the IEA.
A total 15.6GW of coal-fired power capacity was added in the first half of this year, mostly in Asia-Pacific. This was far more than the 12GW that retired globally over the same period, and does not account for an additional 227.5GW that was still under construction as of the end of June, according to US-based Global Energy Monitor. Current global operational capacity of 2.12TW is down only slightlyfrom 2023's record 2.13TW. China and India's intentions for coal are key for global climate goals — they account for 203GW of the capacity under construction — but Beijing and New Delhi unsurprisingly watered down a coal deal at Cop 26 in 2021.
China has not set a new nationally determined contribution, or climate plan, since 2021, but it is expected to ramp up its ambitions in a new plan by the start of 2025. It admitted its heavy dependence on coal is straining its environmental goals.China's coal imports grew by 12pc on the year to a record high in January-June.
China's coal-fired generation increased by 1.5pc on the year to 3,000TWh in the first half of 2024, Argus data show, although solar and hydropower output also rose. Assuming a stronger rebound in hydropower generation over the rest of this year, China's coal-fired generation could be static or fall slightly, according to the IEA. And China last month announced its plans to explore co-firing renewable ammonia and biomass at its coal-fired plants, as well as carbon capture, utilisation and storage for some projects by 2025.
India's coal-fired generation will remain robust and is likely to increase by 7pc this year, according to the IEA. The country experienced a prolonged heatwave in the first half of this year, causing coal-fired generation to rise by 10pc to 676TWh over the period, according to Argus data. The IEA expects higher renewable power output in India will limit the increase in coal-fired generation to 2pc in 2025.
Vicious cycles?
India and Indonesia are strongly encouraging higher coal production to ensure energy security. In tandem, record temperatures and a prolonged heatwave across most of Asia has boosted power demand this year, straining grids and causing power cuts.
Vietnam is also an increasingly important consumer and is set to become the third-largest coal importer by 2035 — behind only China and India. Vietnam has 27.2GW of operating coal-fired capacity at present, and an additional 6GW is in the pipeline. Coal continues to play a key role in the country's $15.8bn Just Energy Transition Partnership plan, which is supposed to help decarbonise its economy. Peak power demand is met by coal in Vietnam, India, Indonesia and China.
Unlike in Europe, where the coal-fired fleet is older, it is harder to make an economic case for retiring Asia-Pacific's newer plants, and the region's grids do not yet have the flexibility to replace base-load power. This year has brought some progress in developed economies, with G7 leaders committing to a coal phase-out by 2035. But no concrete policies have been passed, and the countries limited themselves to calling for reducing coal use "as much as possible" — providing room for manoeuvre for Germany, Japan and the US.
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