IMO 2040 CO2 goals unmet under base case: ABS
The shipping industry will not meet the International Maritime Organization (IMO) goal for reducing CO2 emissions by 2040 without hastening the expected pace of vessel replacements, a study by vessel classification organization American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) concluded.
IMO calls for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20pc by 2030, by at least 70pc by 2040, and to net zero by 2050, compared with 2008 base levels. Under a base case scenario, a 20pc reduction in CO2-equivalent emissions by 2030 is achievable on a full lifecycle basis, but a 70pc percent reduction by 2040 is not, ABS said.
Under the best case scenario examined by ABS, achieving IMO's 70pc target would require a significantly faster renewal of the vessel fleet to replace oil-fueled vessels or a higher degree of vessel retrofitting.
The three biggest categories of bunker consuming vessels — tankers, dry bulk carriers and container ships — are expected to follow a similar trajectory for marine fuel demand under the base case scenario, with conventional marine fuel accounting for more than 60pc of demand through 2035, ABS said.
Conventional fuel demand would decline to 38-44pc of marine fuel demand in the first half of the 2040s in the base case, ABS predicted. Methanol in that period would grow to about 35pc of marine fuel demand for tankers and container ships and about 22pc for dry bulk carriers. Ammonia and hydrogen demand would grow to about 13pc of tankers' marine fuel demand, 18pc of dry bulk carriers' demand and about 14pc of container ships' demand. LNG across the three vessel categories is expected at 4-6pc of bunkering demand in the early 2040s, with biodiesel at 5-9pc of demand.
Related news posts
South Korea to require use of SAF for flights from 2027
South Korea to require use of SAF for flights from 2027
Singapore, 30 August (Argus) — South Korea said it plans to require all international flights departing from its airports to use a mix of 1pc sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from 2027. This comes as more countries are adopting SAF mandates in accordance with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Singapore earlier this year announced a 1pc SAF blending mandate from 2026 , with plans to increase to 3-5pc by 2030, subject to global developments and wider SAF availability and adoption. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced the 'SAF Expansion Strategy' on 30 August, which includes a target for South Korea to capture 30pc of the global blended SAF export market. While not explicitly stated in the statement, some South Korean refineries expect co-processed SAF to be allowed to meet the country's mandate, sources said. This is important as the country already produces small quantities of SAF via co-processing at existing refining facilities, with three of South Korea's four domestic refineries planning to produce SAF through co-processing by the end of this year . Key strategies The ministries outlined three key strategies to achieve the SAF consumption target — gradual expansion of domestic SAF demand, ensuring a stable domestic supply capacity, and establishing a SAF-friendly legal and institutional environment. Airlines can already refuel with SAF at Korean airports, making South Korea the 20th country to do so as part of their plan to increase domestic SAF demand. The country had tested six flights using 2-4pc imported blended SAF between South Korea and Los Angeles since August 2023. An incentive system is being developed to encourage public and private adoption of SAF, with benefits such as preferential allocation of transport rights, reduced airport facility usage fees and the introduction of airline carbon mileage system for passengers and other benefits. A mid- to long-term roadmap for the gradual expansion of domestic SAF demand will be prepared in early 2025, the ministries said. The country's strategy to secure stable domestic supply capabilities includes considering investment support for domestic SAF production such as tax credits. South Korea's four domestic refineries already plan to invest 4 trillion won ($3bn) in renewable fuels, including SAF by 2030, the ministries said. The government estimates a Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) SAF plant with a production capacity of up to 250,000 t/yr will require an investment of approximately W1 trillion. The supply-side strategy also aims to ease regulations on waste recycling to increase the availability of domestic feedstocks for SAF production. Another strategy is to diversify feedstock and SAF production technology options, with pre-testing expected later this year. The government plans to explore alternative feedstock like microalgae and production pathways such as e-SAF, with a view to developing supply chains. South Korea plans to establish a national standard, certification and testing method for SAF with preparation planned for December 2024. By Deborah Sun Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's Qantas records higher fuel costs in 2023-24
Australia's Qantas records higher fuel costs in 2023-24
Singapore, 30 August (Argus) — Australian airline Qantas Airways recorded a higher fuel bill in the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June, as more flights, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expenses and carbon offset programmes weighed on costs. Qantas saw its fuel costs rise by 17pc from a year earlier to A$5.32bn ($3.62bn) in 2023-24, according to the company's full-year financial results released on 29 August. The airline group's passenger carrying capacity was up by 21pc on the previous year, with growth in domestic and international capaicty. This saw the group's overall fuel consumption grow to 29mn bl (79,000 b/d), or 18pc up on the previous year. Qantas expects fuel costs in the first half of 2024-25 to remain stable from a year earlier at about A$2.7bn, including hedging and gross carbon costs, with the group forecasting to consume 15.6mn bl of fuel, including SAF. Qantas forecasts domestic group capacity to rise to 104pc of pre-Covid 19 pandemic capacity in the first half of 2024-25. Its international capacity guidance, excluding Jetstar Asia, is expected to rise by about 16pc from the previous year to achieve 102pc of pre-Covid levels in the first half. The group's passenger carrying capacity, measured by available seat kilometres (ASKs), was up on a year earlier by 21pc to 141mn ASK by 2023-24, although this was still about 93pc of pre-Covid levels. Qantas has agreements to offtake SAF, renewing its agreement to buy SAF for flights out of London Heathrow and doubling the size of its corporate customer SAF programme in 2023-24. But the group saw its 2023-24 profit fall, with underlying profit before tax down by 16pc on the previous year to A$2.08bn. By Cara Wong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India lifts curbs on use of sugarcane juice for ethanol
India lifts curbs on use of sugarcane juice for ethanol
Mumbai, 30 August (Argus) — The Indian government is allowing sugar mills and distilleries to use sugarcane juice and sugar syrup to produce ethanol during the November 2024-October 2025 supply year. The government in December last year halted the use of sugarcane juice and sugar syrup for ethanol production in the 2023-24 supply year, as insufficient rainfall in key growing regions led to a surge in domestic sugar prices and a shortage of the sweetener. Sugar mills and distilleries can also produce ethanol from B-heavy and C-heavy molasses. The food ministry's order added that it will, in co-ordination with the oil ministry, periodically review the diversion of sugar to ethanol production in relation to the production of sugar in the country to ensure the availability of sugar for domestic consumption throughout the year. The government also allowed the Food Corporation of India to sell rice to distilleries for ethanol production during August-October but capped the limit at 2.3mn t of rice. India had suspended supplies of excess rice to distilleries for ethanol production in July 2023 because of food availability and concerns about rising prices. Distilleries will be allowed to load rice during August-October subject to allocation of ethanol to the distilleries by oil marketing companies, the government order said. Of the total ethanol used for blending in gasoline in India, around 61pc comes from B-heavy molasses, 20pc from sugar syrup, 11pc from surplus rice, 6pc from damaged food grains and maize and 2pc from C-heavy molasses. India has a set a goal to increase ethanol blending in gasoline to 20pc by 2025, as part of efforts to reduce its dependence on crude imports. Ethanol blending in gasoline was 13.3pc during November 2023-July 2024 and 15.8pc during July 2024, oil ministry data show. Oil marketing companies buy ethanol from ethanol producers like sugar mills and distilleries to blend with gasoline. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK eyes new environmental guidance for oil, gas: Update
UK eyes new environmental guidance for oil, gas: Update
Adds comment from Shell London, 29 August (Argus) — The UK government will develop new environmental guidance for oil and gas firms, in the light of a recent Supreme Court decision that ruled consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The ruling means that "end use emissions from the burning of extracted hydrocarbons need to be assessed", the government said today. The government will consult on the new guidance and aims to conclude the process "by spring 2025", it said today. It will in the meantime halt and defer the assessment of any environmental statements related to oil and gas extraction and storage activities until the new guidance is in place, including statements that are already being assessed. The Supreme Court in June ruled that Surrey County Council's decision to permit an oil development was "unlawful because the end use atmospheric emissions from burning the extracted oil were not assessed as part of the environmental impact assessment". The government also confirmed that it will not challenge judicial reviews brought against the development consent granted to the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields in the North Sea. A judicial review in the UK is a challenge to the way in which a decision has been made by a public body, focusing on the procedures followed rather than the conclusion reached. Environmental campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift launched legal challenges in December seeking a judicial review of the government's decision to permit Rosebank. Norway's state-owned Equinor and London-listed Ithaca hold 80pc and 20pc of Rosebank, respectively. Greenpeace in July 2022 separately filed a legal challenge against the permitting of Shell's Jackdaw field. "This litigation does not mean the licences for Jackdaw and Rosebank have been withdrawn", the government said. The Labour government, voted into office in July , pledged not to issue any new oil, gas or coal licences, but also promised not to revoke existing ones. Equinor is "currently assessing the implications of today's announcement and will maintain close collaboration with all relevant stakeholders to advance the project. Rosebank is a vital project for the UK and is bringing benefits in terms of investment, job creation and energy security", the company told Argus today. Shell is "carefully considering the implications of today's announcement... we believe the Jackdaw field remains an important development for the UK, providing fuel to heat 1.4mn homes and supporting energy security, as other older gas fields reach the end of production", the company told Argus . North Sea oil and gas production "will be a key component of the UK energy landscape for decades to come", the government said today. The UK government introduced a climate compatibility checkpoint in September 2022, designed to ensure that oil and gas licensing fits UK climate goals. The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The checkpoint, though, does not take into account scope 3 emissions. These typically make up between 80pc and 95pc of total oil and gas company emissions. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
![Generic Hero Banner](/_next/image?url=%2F-%2Fmedia%2Fproject%2Fargusmedia%2Fmainsite%2Fimages%2F14-generic-hero-banners%2Fherobanner_1600x530_generic-c.jpg%3Fh%3D530%26iar%3D0%26w%3D1600%26rev%3D8ec86dce0f724687bd325a9a917cffae%26hash%3D9FD39B08C9D84A160C91A3649C40A186&w=3840&q=75)
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more