Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil output at 350,000 b/d: Apikur
Crude production in northern Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region is around 350,000 b/d, according to a local industry body, just 50,000 b/d below what it was before the closure of a key pipeline to Turkey shut Kurdish producers out of international export markets in March last year.
The production estimate relates to fields under the control of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and excludes those in the region that are controlled by the federal government in Baghdad. It was provided to Argus by the spokesperson for the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur), Myles Caggins.
"The volume of production has generally increased since the shuttering of the pipeline in March 2023. All Apikur members remain focused on ultimately having the pipeline reopened for exports," Caggins said.
Apikur represents eight foreign oil firms operating in the Kurdistan region — DNO, Genel Energy, Gulf Keystone, HKN Energy, Shamaran Petroleum, Western Zagros, Mol and Hunt Oil.
Producers in the region have been selling their crude to local buyers since the pipeline was closed but they have had to settle for steep discounts. Caggins estimates local sales of Iraqi Kurdish crude are averaging $30-35/bl, which is around $45-50/bl lower than prevailing international oil prices.
Apikur's estimate tallies with an operational update from Gulf Keystone today, which put crude output from the Shaikan field in the Kurdistan region close to capacity at 48,200 b/d in August and the current value of local crude sales at around $27/bl.
Besides local refiners taking Iraqi Kurdish crude, Argus understands that some of the production is being smuggled into Turkey, Iran and Syria.
Such robust production levels in the Kurdistan region are unlikely to be welcomed by Iraq's federal government in Baghdad, given the challenge it faces in keeping Iraqi output below the country's Opec+ cap. Iraq has failed to stick to its target in any month this year. Along with fellow overproducers Kazakhstan and Russia, Baghdad submitted updated plans on 23 August detailing how it intends to compensate.
Iraqi officials say efforts to compensate for exceeding the Opec+ target are complicated by a lack of visibility on production in Iraqi Kurdistan, which they currently put at around 100,000 b/d, less than a third of the Apikur estimate. The KRG does not provide monthly production figures as part a wider clampdown on issuing data following the pipeline's closure.
Sources at Iraq's oil ministry have told Argus that it will be easier to deliver compensation cuts after the summer season ends and temperatures begin to drop.
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Baghdad issues ultimatum to KRG to drive output down
Baghdad issues ultimatum to KRG to drive output down
Dubai, 29 August (Argus) — The federal Iraqi government has issued an ultimatum to northern Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to reduce its crude output to "the minimum required", or face the possibility of not receiving its share of the budget. The move, communicated today by a senior official at Iraq's state marketer Somo, represents the latest attempt by Baghdad to pressure the KRG into cooperating to help bring Iraqi output below its Opec+ production target. KRG was asked "on several occasions" to cut its production according to the budget law "to the minimum required for their local refineries" — around 50,000 b/d, the official said. "Otherwise, the KRG will have to pay [the federal government] all the revenues they receive, for the extra barrels beyond what their refineries need". Iraq has emerged as the Opec+ group's biggest overproducer, failing to meet its target in any of the first seven months this year. The country, along with Kazakhstan and Russia, which are overproducing too, submitted updated plans to the Opec secretariat last week outlining how it intends to compensate for the extra volume. Iraqi officials said that a lack of visibility on KRG production are complicating efforts. Output has been gradually recovering in Kurdistan this year, even though the 400,000 b/d export pipeline that links fields in the north to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan has been shut-in since March 2023 because of a dispute between Baghdad and Turkey. Crude production from the region collapsed below 100,000 b/d in the months following the pipeline closure, but has risen steadily, particularly from fields operated by foreign companies, as they find new outlets for their crude. Foreign operators operating in Kurdistan said they rely on trucking crude to local refineries to stay in business, but Kurdish crude is also being smuggled — by truck — across the border to neighboring Turkey, Iran and Syria, Argus understands. Different accounts Crude output from Iraqi Kurdistan is currently averaging around 350,000 b/d , a spokesperson for the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (Apikur) told Argus. Apikur is an industry body representing the foreign operators in the northern region . Argus assessed KRG production at 200,000-250,000 b/d on average in the first half of the year. But the federal government disputes those numbers, insisting that production from Kurdistan is around 150,000 b/d. "Any more than that will put huge pressure on the KRG," the official said. Assuming refining capacity of 50,000 b/d, the official labelled the higher estimates as "illogical." He pointed to the fact that about 500 trucks are already needed on a daily basis to export the region's 100,000 b/d, and that the state of the roads and service stations does not allow for the double amount of vehicles. Earlier attempts by the federal government to scale back Iraqi Kurdish production have failed, but the official thinks that Baghdad's latest ultimatum will have the desired impact. "These are serious steps," the official said. If KRG production remains above the 50,000 b/d needed for domestic refining, and it does not deliver the proceeds to Baghdad, it will not receive its share of the budget, which it is heavily dependent on to support its economy. Getting back on track Iraq's latest compensation plan put its overproduction in January-July at 206,000 b/d, compared with 197,000 b/d in January-June. Opec+ secondary sources estimated that output rose by 57,000 b/d on the month to 4.251mn b/d in July, some 251,000 b/d above the Opec+ target. The official said Iraqi production should fall to required levels from September. Somo canceled a spot cargo of 1mn bl this month, and Iraq is "working on deferring two similar shipments, before the end of the month," the official said. "That means we will be down around 3mn bl, or 90,000 b/d". He added that a 50,000 b/d decrease in domestic crude consumption resulting from increased gas imports from Iran and stronger domestic gas output will also help with the country's compliance. He said Iraq's August output levels will be down on the month, but dependent "on the position of the KRG". By Nader Itayim and Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
London, 29 August (Argus) — The UK government will develop new environmental guidance for oil and gas firms, in the light of a recent Supreme Court decision that ruled consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The ruling means that "end use emissions from the burning of extracted hydrocarbons need to be assessed", the government said today. The government will consult on the new guidance and aims to conclude the process "by spring 2025", it said today. It will in the meantime halt and defer the assessment of any environmental statements related to oil and gas extraction and storage activities until the new guidance is in place, including statements that are already being assessed. The Supreme Court in June ruled that Surrey County Council's decision to permit an oil development was "unlawful because the end use atmospheric emissions from burning the extracted oil were not assessed as part of the environmental impact assessment". The government also confirmed that it will not challenge judicial reviews brought against the development consent granted to the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields in the North Sea. A judicial review in the UK is a challenge to the way in which a decision has been made by a public body, focusing on the procedures followed rather than the conclusion reached. Environmental campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift launched legal challenges in December seeking a judicial review of the government's decision to permit Rosebank. Norway's state-owned Equinor and London-listed Ithaca hold 80pc and 20pc of Rosebank, respectively. Greenpeace in July 2022 separately filed a legal challenge against the permitting of Shell's Jackdaw field. "This litigation does not mean the licences for Jackdaw and Rosebank have been withdrawn", the government said. The Labour government, voted into office in July , pledged not to issue any new oil, gas or coal licences, but also promised not to revoke existing ones. Equinor is "currently assessing the implications of today's announcement and will maintain close collaboration with all relevant stakeholders to advance the project. Rosebank is a vital project for the UK and is bringing benefits in terms of investment, job creation and energy security", the company told Argus today. North Sea oil and gas production "will be a key component of the UK energy landscape for decades to come", the government said today. Argus has also contacted Shell for comment. The UK government introduced a climate compatibility checkpoint in September 2022, designed to ensure that oil and gas licensing fits UK climate goals. The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The checkpoint, though, does not take into account scope 3 emissions. These typically make up between 80pc and 95pc of total oil and gas company emissions. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Salvage teams to get access to leaking Red Sea tanker
Salvage teams to get access to leaking Red Sea tanker
Dubai, 29 August (Argus) — Yemen's Houthi rebels have agreed to allow salvage teams to reach a Suezmax tanker that is unmanned, on fire and leaking oil in the Red Sea after it was targeted by the militant group last week, Iran's mission to the UN said late Wednesday. Some countries asked for tugboats and rescuers to be able to access the area "with a temporary ceasefire", Iran's mission said. The Houthis have agreed to the request "given the humanitarian and environmental considerations", it said. The Greek-flagged Sounion was sailing from Iraq to Greece carrying a cargo of close to 1mn bl of Basrah Heavy crude when it was attacked on 21 August. Three projectiles were fired at the vessel, causing it to lose engine power. The crew comprising two Russian and 23 Filipino sailors were rescued soon after by EU member naval forces and evacuated to Djibouti, the nearest safe port of call. Houthi spokesman Mohamad Abdulsalam confirmed the comments from the Iranian mission, posting on social media platform X that the group had given permission for the Sounion to be towed "after numerous international parties especially European ones" had reached out to them on the issue. The move came just a day after the Pentagon said an attempt at salvaging the vessel had been thwarted after tugboats were warned away by the Houthis. "We are aware of a third party that attempted to sent two tugs to the vessel to help salvage, but they were warned away by the Houthis and threatened with being attacked, which again demonstrates their blatant disregard for not only human life, but also for the potential environmental catastrophe this presents," the Pentagon's press secretary, Pat Ryder, said on 27 August. The EU's naval mission in the region said the ship had been on fire since 23 August. No end in sight The targeting of the Sounion is the latest in a long line of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea. The group said its attacks are in support of the Palestinians following Israel's offensive in Gaza. The Houthis claim to only attack vessels that are going to or from Israel, or ships that are Israeli owned. But many of the vessels that have been targeted since the campaign started in November last year have not had an obvious link to Israel, including the Sounion . Despite efforts by the international community to stop the attacks, the Houthis have reiterated that their campaign will continue until Israel ends its military offensive in Gaza. "The burning of the [ Sounion ] is an example of Yemen's seriousness in targeting any ship that violates the Yemeni decision to prevent any ship from crossing to the ports of occupied Palestine," Abdulsalam said on X. The "aim is to exert pressure on the Zionist enemy to stop its aggression in Gaza", he said. "All shipping companies linked to the Zionist enemy must realise that their ships will remain vulnerable to Yemeni strikes… until the aggression stops and the siege on Gaza is lifted." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iraq's Shaikan oil field producing near capacity
Iraq's Shaikan oil field producing near capacity
London, 29 August (Argus) — The Shaikan oil field in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region is producing close to capacity, reflecting firm demand for its crude from local refineries. Production has edged up to 48,200 b/d this month from 47,900 b/d in July, having averaged just under 39,300 b/d in the first six months of the year, operator Gulf Keystone said today. Output during January-June was almost 70pc higher than the same period in 2023, proof of how Gulf Keystone has adapted to the 17-month long closure of the export pipeline that links Shaikan and other fields in the region to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. With international export markets off limits to Iraqi Kurdistan producers since March 2023, Gulf Keystone has had to rely on trucking Shaikan's crude to local refineries to stay in business. Local demand rebounded in February and has remained high since, the firm said. But the company is still having to sell at a steep discount. Shaikan crude currently fetches around $27/bl, which is around a third of the value of Ice front-month Brent. Gulf Keystone continues to push for the reopening of the pipeline to Turkey and the restart of exports. But in the meantime, "we remain focused on maximising shareholder value from local sales", chief executive Jon Harris said. The company said it expects local demand for its crude to remain robust in the short term but it has held off from giving a production forecast, as visibility on sales in the longer term is low. It expects Shaikan's output to be reduced by around 26,000 b/d for around three weeks in November as a result of planned upgrades and maintenance. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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