Brazil to build on G20 for climate leadership role
Brazil to build on G20 for climate leadership role Brazil is looking to use its G20 presidency to advance agreement on energy transition finance — also a central topic at the UN Cop 29 talks this year — consolidating itself as a climate leader as it prepares to host Cop 30 next year.
The country has set fighting climate change as one of its G20 presidency priorities. It called for a global finance governance that includes rules for financing a "just and equitable" energy transition in developing economies and foreasier access to climate funds.Brazil is also pushing for a 2pc tax on billionaires that could generate up to $250 bn/yr in revenue. Progressing the painstakingly slow reform of multilateral development banks (MDBs) is important for Brazil.
The G20 finance ministers noted in July an MDB roadmap, to be released in October, is a "key deliverable under the Brazilian presidency". MDB reforms, including aligning funding with climate goals and improving access, are also at the heart of finance discussions ahead of November's Cop 29 in Azerbaijan, and with the G20 conclusions overlapping with the climate talks, decisions made in Brazil could help shape outcomes in Baku. At G20 meetings, Brazil also proposed developing climate disaster prevention tools, reached climate pacts with the US, the UK and France, and began plans to launch a new Amazon fund.
The country hopes to consolidate its climate leadership ahead of Cop 30, which it is hosting in Belem in 2025. It will capitalise on steady reductions in deforestation in the Amazon rainforest over the past two years and increased adoption of renewable energy to foster higher global climate ambitions. The government is already working on an update of its nationally determined contribution (NDC) climate plan, due early next year. Non-governmental organisations have called on Brazil to slash CO2 emissions by 92pc from 2005 levels by 2035 to 200mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)/yr. NGOs also want a more ambitious 2030 target of 400mn t of CO2e/yr — the NDC currently requires emissions to fall to 1.2bn t CO2e/yr.
Preliminary data from Brazil's national institute of space research indicate deforestation fell by nearly 46pc over August 2023-July 2024. Environment minister Marina Silva estimates this cut 250mn t of CO2e emissions in 2023 alone. The final overall 2023emissions data should show another sharp decline, bolstering Brazil's position as a global leader in forest conservation.
The country recently launched its national policy for energy transition, establishing guidelines involving wind, solar, hydro, biomass, biodiesel, ethanol, green diesel, carbon capture and storage, sustainable aviation fuel and green hydrogen, with energy minister Alexandre Silveira saying it is "an opportunity to boost local production" on all those fronts. Brazil also launched a programme to support production of electric vehicles (EVs), although it failed to set a definitive plan to phase out internal combustion engines. EV sales reached more than 94,000 units sold in January-July — surpassing the 93,930 units sold in all of 2023.
The oil producer's challenge
But emissions from Brazil's energy sector rose last year, to 427.8mn t of CO2e from 424.3mn t of CO2e in 2022, with transportation remaining the largest contributor and highlighting the need for more aggressive measures to reduce fossil fuel reliance in transportation. And Brazil is steadily increasing oil production, hoping to increase it further in the south and the country's environmentally sensitive equatorial margin. Output could hit 5.3mn-5.4mn b/d by 2029-30, according to government energy research firm Epe. Brazil still wants to start laying the groundwork for Cop parties to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop 30. But Silva insists developed countries must work on eliminating fossil fuel demand first and provide financial support to help developing nations transition do so.
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US Gulf producers curtailing operations on storm threat
US Gulf producers curtailing operations on storm threat
New York, 9 September (Argus) — Oil companies started to halt offshore operations in the US Gulf of Mexico ahead of an expected hurricane strike later this week. Shell said it paused some drilling operations at the Perdido and Whale platforms — located about 190 miles south of Houston — as a precaution as tropical storm Francine threatened to develop into a hurricane as it moves north from the Bay of Campeche toward the Texas and Louisiana coasts. ExxonMobil said all staff had been transported off the Hoover platform, located about 200 miles south of Houston, and operations shut-in. And Chevron said it is evacuating non-essential workers from its Anchor, Big Foot, Jack/St. Malo and Tahiti facilities, though production from company-operated assets remains at normal levels. Those facilities are located about 280 miles south of New Orleans. "We continue to supply our customers at our onshore facilities, where we are following our storm preparedness procedures and paying close attention to the forecast and track of the storm," Chevron said. Francine, which formed off the east coast of Mexico over the weekend, is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves north toward the Texas coast and northwestern Gulf, according to the National Hurricane Center. Current forecasts have it coming ashore somewhere between the Texas/Louisiana border and New Orleans Wednesday evening. A hurricane watch is in place for parts of southern Louisiana as Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding across the region. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Venezuelan vote ends in opposition leader's exile
Venezuelan vote ends in opposition leader's exile
Caracas, 9 September (Argus) — Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez landed in Spain on Sunday after an arrest warrant accused him of terrorism as President Nicolas Maduro continues to crack down on dissent despite international condemnation. Gonzalez fled to Spain after several days of shuttling between foreign embassies in Caracas "to save his liberty, integrity and life," Maria Corina Machado, Gonzalez's ally and the key opposition figure blocked by Maduro from running in the election, said on social media. "My departure from Caracas was surrounded by episodes of pressure, coercion and threats in order to not allow me to leave," Gonzalez said in an audio post to his followers. "I am confident that in the near future we will continue the struggle to achieve freedom and recover democracy in Venezuela." The US and other countries have not recognized official election results from 28 July and backed the opposition coalition's claim that Gonzalez likely was the winner. But Washington has refrained from taking any action, including enforcing an even stricter regime of oil and other sanctions, to force Maduro to cede power. "The United States strongly condemns Maduro's decision to use repression and intimidation to cling to power by brute force rather than acknowledge his defeat at the polls," secretary of state Antony Blinken said. Gonzalez's departure highlighted pessimism over the possibility of a negotiated departure for Maduro, who claims that he won a third term. "Today is a sad day for democracy," EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell said, saying that removing Gonzalez from Venezuela was the only solution for now. Oil minister and vice-president Delcy Rodriguez confirmed Gonzalez's departure late on 7 September, labeling Gonzalez an "opposition citizen" who was granted safe passage after requesting political asylum. In the days after the election, 23 demonstrators and one national guard member were killed, according to figures from the Organization of American States. Maduro boasted of arresting 2,500 "terrorists", but human rights non-governmental organizations say the detainees are demonstrators, election workers, politicians and journalists. According to the human-rights group Foro Penal, more than 1,700 are still in jail. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 29 boost key to setting much-awaited 2035 targets
Cop 29 boost key to setting much-awaited 2035 targets
London, 9 September (Argus) — As focus shifts to setting new emissions-reduction targets for 2035 against a backdrop of under-promised and undelivered 2030 goals, November's UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, will need to provide the much lacking fuel to power the previous summit's ideals. Countries will be expected to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris climate agreement — emissions cut targets, this time for 2035 — in November-February, as part of a cycle that requires countries to "ratchet up" their commitments every five years. Denmark's climate minister Dan Jorgensen said this year forthcoming NDCs "have to be informed by the decisions [at Cop 28] in Dubai and will be measured on their meaning". The global stocktake signed there last year included an energy section calling for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030 and for "accelerating action in this critical decade", giving the direction countries need to take in the energy transition. But the agreement has little momentum. Although some countries, including the UK, have signalled they have made a start on their 2035 plans, work remains very much in progress. The UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil — the so-called Cop presidencies troika — in July encouraged parties to "step up the work" ahead of Cop 29, calling on "early movers" to signal their commitments as early as this month. Among major emitters, the EU has yet to set its 2035 targets, although the European Commission has proposed a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90pc by 2040 from a 1990 baseline. The US said it would develop an "ambitious" new plan within the UN deadline. But any developments will hinge on the results of the country's election taking place just days before Cop 29 starts. And China recently unveiled new guidelines, but stopped short of issuing new targets. Shaky foundations Countries will need to increase previous ambition levels significantly for the new targets to be sufficient. Even if all 2030 plans submitted up to 25 September last year were implemented, emissions reductions would still be at least 11bn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) short of what is needed to limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and 19bn t of CO2e short for 1.5°C — the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement — according to the UN. Australia was the sole G20 member on track to meet its 2030 target for outright emissions reductions as of last October, according to IEA analysis. And only Australia, Canada, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the US, EU, UK and Brazil have outright emissions-reduction targets. Other G20 members are either measuring their emissions against business-as-usual scenarios or capping them at a specified level, which leaves space for further increases. Room for manoeuvre grows ever smaller, with an 80pc likelihood that the average global temperature across one of the next five years will breach the 1.5°C target, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Last year was the warmest on record, averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels. Cop 29 could be the catalyst needed to step up action, particularly for countries that would struggle financially to implement stricter measures. Parties will agree a new climate finance goal at the summit and resume talks on the outstanding elements of carbon market mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris deal, another way in which mitigation outcomes and finance can be transferred between regions. But success hinges, as ever, on high levels of co-operation between countries with conflicting interests, something that has already seen Article 6 disagreements rumble on for years. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec+ members delay output increases to December
Opec+ members delay output increases to December
Dubai, 6 September (Argus) — Opec+ members have opted to delay their plan to start increasing output by two months, against the backdrop of a sharp fall in prices and growing concerns about the oil demand outlook. Eight members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — are now scheduled to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" crude production cuts from December, instead of October, over a 12-month period, the Opec secretariat said on 5 September. The plan had carried a proviso that the unwinding was subject to "market conditions". And the return of this supply is still not a foregone conclusion. The eight members retain the "flexibility to pause or reverse the adjustments as necessary", the secretariat says. If they go ahead with the updated plan, their collective output targets will rise by around 180,000 b/d in December. The delay to the output increase came as Atlantic basin benchmark North Sea Dated fell close to $75/bl on 5 September, its lowest since December, on concerns over oil demand in China and the US. Beijing imported 1.3mn b/d less crude in July than June, taking its monthly tally of receipts down to 10mn b/d, the lowest in nearly two years. The oil price drop has not taken place in isolation, JP Morgan says. "Alongside commodities, US 10-year treasury yields have tumbled (-70bp) and the US dollar index came down by almost 2pc, signalling a shift in the assessment of macroeconomic risk in the US and globally." The Opec+ delay means that any unwinding of its cuts will not come until after the 5 November US elections. But with gasoline prices there not seen at concerning levels and edging down, oil prices are not viewed as much of an election issue. The decision could help establish a floor under prices, which have fallen despite an oil blockade in Libya that has driven the country's production down to around 300,000 b/d, from almost 1mn b/d. Opec+ may also have sought to add further support to prices by emphasising assurance by overproducers Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia on "planned compensation schedules". Promised belt tightening from the three would effectively wipe out most barrels coming back to the market until October 2025 — as long as they deliver. For now, the eight members have chosen to buy time and gain more clarity on how the markets develop in the fourth quarter, while also seeking to tighten the noose on compliance. Come early November, those members will have to determine if the market can handle the incremental increase — if not, Opec+ might be up for some hard decisions in December. Compliance and compensation Compliance by some serial overproducers improved in August, Argus estimates. Russia, which has tended to exceed its targets in recent months, saw its output fall by 70,000 b/d to 8.98mn b/d, bang on its formal output target. And Kazakhstan finally started to deliver on its pledge to start compensating for exceeding its targets, with its output in August coming in 40,000 b/d below its effective target under its compensation plan. The biggest overproducer was usual suspect Iraq, which was 200,000 b/d above its formal target and 290,000 b/d over its effective target under its latest plan to compensate for overproducing. Overall production by Opec+ members subject to cuts was barely changed, easing by 10,000 b/d in August, as falls from Russia and Kazakhstan were offset by increases from Nigeria and the UAE. This drove the alliance's output down to 33.82mn b/d, around 30,000 b/d below its collective target. But the forced outages in Libya drove the group's overall output down by a hefty 300,000 b/d. Libya, like Iran and Venezuela, is exempt from production targets. Opec+ crude production mn b/d Aug Jul* Target† ± target Opec 9 21.54 21.45 21.23 +0.31 Non-Opec 9 12.28 12.38 12.62 -0.34 Total 33.82 33.83 33.85 -0.03 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Aug Jul Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.96 9.00 8.98 -0.02 Iraq 4.20 4.25 4.00 +0.20 Kuwait 2.40 2.38 2.41 -0.01 UAE 2.98 2.94 2.91 +0.07 Algeria 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.00 Nigeria 1.54 1.46 1.50 +0.04 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.24 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.23 0.21 0.17 +0.06 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.06 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.54 21.45 21.23 +0.31 Iran 3.33 3.35 na na Libya 0.92 1.20 na na Venezuela 0.88 0.88 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.67 26.88 na na †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Aug Jul* Target† ± target Russia 8.98 9.05 8.98 +0.00 Oman 0.76 0.76 0.76 +0.00 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.48 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.37 1.41 1.47 -0.10 Malaysia 0.33 0.34 0.40 -0.07 Bahrain 0.18 0.18 0.20 -0.02 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.05 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.28 12.38 12.62 -0.34 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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