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Francine shuts in about 42pc of US Gulf oil: Update 2

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 12/09/24

Adds spot crude pricing information, NOLA port reopening.

Hurricane Francine, which has since weakened to a tropical depression as it passes over central Mississippi, shut in about 42pc of US Gulf of Mexico oil output.

About 730,472 b/d of offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET Thursday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), while 991.68mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 53pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators evacuated workers from 169 platforms this week ahead of the storm.

Companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell relocated offshore workers and suspended some drilling operations ahead of Francine, while a number of ports, including New Orleans, Louisiana, shut down.

Shell curtailed output at the Appomattox platform, around 80 miles south east of Louisiana, as well as the Mars, Vito, Ursa, and Olympus platforms because of downstream issues. Today Shell said it has started to redeploy staff to its Perdido facility, located about 190 miles south of Houston, where production is still shut. Operations at Shell's Auger and Enchilada/Salsa assets, about 120 miles south of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. remain suspended. Drilling is still halted at the Whale platform, which is scheduled to start up later this year.

"As conditions continue to improve, we will begin the process of redeploying personnel to Auger and Enchilada/Salsa to bring staffing to normal operating levels," Shell said.

Offshore crude spot prices rise

Crude from Shell's Appomattox project moves through the offshore Proteus and Endymion pipelines to be marketed as part of the medium sour Thunder Horse stream, which has dedicated underground cavern storage in LOOP's Clovelly, Louisiana, hub. In today's spot market, prompt October Thunder Horse has been trading at a 30¢/bl premium to the US benchmark in Cushing, Oklahoma, today, 20¢/bl higher than in the prior session.

Crude from Shell's Mars, Vito, Ursa and Olympus platforms also delivers to LOOP's Clovelly hub, and is sold as Mars crude from there, where the medium sour also has dedicated cavern storage. Mars crude has sold in the spot market today at 70-80¢/bl discounts to the Cushing benchmark, in line with yesterday's 75-80¢/bl discounts.

Shell's Auger and Enchilada/Salsa production feeds primarily into the Bonito Sour crude stream, a light sour that is not often seen trading in the spot market.

Perdido feeds into ExxonMobil's Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System (HOOPS), that delivers the HOOPS Blend to the Texas Gulf coast. HOOPS Blend is a medium sour crude that is not actively traded in the spot market. Competing Texas-delivered medium sour Southern Green Canyon (SGC) was trading at a $1.25/bl discount to Cushing this morning, within yesterday's range of discounts between $1 and $1.30/bl. SGC discounts had tightened to as narrow as 70¢/bl this week — the tightest since mid-August.

Ports reopening

Conditions at the port of New Orleans were set to normal at 2pm ET today after the port was closed ahead of the storm, according to the US Coast Guard. The mouth of the Mississippi River remained closed to traffic however.

The port of Lake Charles reopened to vessel traffic at 11am ET Thursday after closing on Tuesday evening.

Francine was about 15 miles north-northeast of Jackson, Mississippi, as of a 12pm ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. It slammed into the Louisiana coast as a Category 2 hurricane Wednesday evening before weakening.


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IMF upgrades global growth outlook

IMF upgrades global growth outlook

Washington, 17 January (Argus) — The IMF is taking a slightly more upbeat view of the prospects for the global economy, revising upward its expectations for the US economy. But IMF officials are warning about the potential for higher inflation in the US if president-elect Donald Trump follows through with his threats to impose broad tariffs on all US imports from Canada, Mexico and China. "Higher tariffs or immigration curbs will play out like negative supply shocks, reducing output and adding to price pressures," IMF head of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. In an update to its World Economic Outlook released today, the IMF projected the global economy will grow by what it called a "stable, albeit lackluster rate" of 3.3pc this year and again by 3.3pc in 2026. The IMF's new 2025 outlook is 0.1 percentage points higher than its 3.2pc forecast in its October report. The IMF expects the US economy, spurred by continued strength in domestic demand, to grow by 2.7pc this year, a 0.5 percentage point increase from its forecast in October. China's economy is projected to grow by 4.6pc this year, up by 0.1 percentage point from the IMF's October forecast. The euro area is expected to grow by 1pc. Last year, the world economy grew by an estimated 3.2pc, compared with 3.3pc in 2023, the IMF said. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including at the Paris-based energy watchdog IEA, to model oil demand projections. Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2pc this year and 3.5pc in 2026, with pricing pressures easing in advanced economies more quickly than in emerging and developing economies. Gourinchas noted that while it is difficult to quantify the effects of the policy changes Trump has vowed to implement, "they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term" relative to the IMF's baseline. Looser fiscal policy or deregulation would stimulate demand and increase inflation, as spending and investment rise. "A combination of surging demand and shrinking supply would likely reignite US price pressures, though the effect on economic output in the near term would be ambiguous," Gourinchas said. IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva and other economists have warned in recent years about the rising tide of protectionist measures implemented by the advanced economies, including the US and the EU. A recent IMF forecast scenario that involves a trade war between the US, Europe and China would reduce the global and US GDP annual growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points in 2025-30, with smaller effects in the eurozone and China. That scenario did not account for a possible trade war between the US and its immediate neighbors, which also has the potential to disrupt an integrated North American energy market. By David Ivanovich and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce


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Houthis signal Red Sea attacks pause after Gaza truce

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Australia rejects gas exploration permit near Sydney


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17/01/25

Australia rejects gas exploration permit near Sydney

Sydney, 17 January (Argus) — Australia has refused further permits to two explorers for the controversial petroleum exploration permit 11 (PEP-11) in the offshore Sydney basin, citing public interest and financial stability concerns. The 4,500km² block near the NSW state cities of Sydney and Newcastle contains shale and conventional gas reserves. It was controlled by 85pc stakeholder Asset Energy, 100pc-owned by unlisted oil and gas explorer Advent Energy, and 15pc owner Australia-listed Bounty Oil and Gas. The Commonwealth-New South Wales (NSW) offshore oil joint authority refused the stakeholders' PEP-11 applications on 16 January, federal Labor industry minister Ed Husic said on 17 January. "The joint authority refused the applications for reasons of public interest, concerns about the applicants' estimate of the cost of works and their ability to raise the necessary capital to fund the proposed works," Husic added. The firms were initially refused an extension for PEP-11 in 2021, by then Coalition prime minister Scott Morrison. But Asset appealed this decision , alleging procedural unfairness. Electorates in the northern suburbs of Sydney were considered crucial in Australia's 2022 federal election, which Morrison and his Coalition ultimately lost. Gas exploration and production is politically unpopular in many parts of Australia, despite ongoing concerns about energy shortfalls. Bounty claimed PEP-11 contains potential gas resources of 4.7 trillion ft³ (133bn m³) but the region has not produced any commercial quantities to date. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump tariffs may move gas prices, not flows


16/01/25
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16/01/25

Trump tariffs may move gas prices, not flows

New York, 16 January (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose 25pc tariffs on all imports from Canada would likely raise US natural gas prices if enacted, but not by enough to significantly alter flows across the border. As anxiety over US-imposed tariffs mounted over the past week, gas prices for February delivery on the Pacific coast of southern Canada began trading at a steeper discount to their US counterparts. The February price at Westcoast station 2, a key indicator of western Canadian gas prices, on Wednesday was at a $4.38/mmBtu discount to northwest US gas hub Northwest Sumas, compared with a $3.43/mmBtu discount a week earlier. The February price at Canadian benchmark NIT/AECO on Wednesday also moved to a $2.56/mmBtu discount to the US benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana from a $2.22/mmBtu discount a week earlier. While other factors could be at play, the wider Canadian discounts line up with a shift in sentiment by Canadian oil and gas groups and politicians over the past week, as those groups coordinate to try and halt the threatened tariffs. "They're likely to come in on January 20th," Danielle Smith, premier of Alberta, a major oil and gas-producing Canadian province, said of the tariffs this week. The attitude is starkly different from a month earlier, when Michael Rose, chief executive of Tourmaline Oil, the largest Canadian gas producer, said at a Goldman Sachs energy conference that he thought there was a "low likelihood" that the tariffs would be imposed. "We'd agree with you," replied Goldman Sachs head of gas research Samantha Dart. But while US-Canadian gas price spreads would widen if gas were not exempted from Trump's tariffs, the western US would probably not reduce purchases of Canadian gas, because "there's nowhere else for them to get the supply," FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Moreover, even with a 25pc price increase, Canadian gas is still highly competitive against US-sourced gas and alternative power generation sources like coal. This is also the case for the US' upper midcontinent and east coast, though gas buyers in those regions could also source gas from Appalachia, Oklahoma or the Rockies if there were spare pipeline capacity. The effect of tariffs on gas prices would also probably be dwarfed by more humdrum market dynamics, like the weather. Demand-boosting cold weather this month has quickly drawn down US gas inventories, which appear slated in the coming weeks to flip to a deficit to the five-year average for the first time in more than two years. Even colder weather early next week is also likely to trigger freeze-offs, which are production curtailments caused by extreme cold. Given those more pressing concerns, "tariffs do not come up" in meetings with other market participants, Appalachian gas producer Seneca Resources marketing manager Rob Lindroos told Argus . Approximately 99pc of US gas imports are from Canada via pipeline, with flows into the US averaging 8 Bcf/d (227mn m³/d) in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Those Canadian sales, accounting for nearly half of western Canada's production, provide crucial energy supplies to the US Pacific northwest and midcontinent, parts of which are far from US reservoirs. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico’s oil states led labor market losers in 2024


16/01/25
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16/01/25

Mexico’s oil states led labor market losers in 2024

Mexico City, 16 January (Argus) — Mexico's oil and gas-dependent states led state job losses in 2024, driven by a sharp contraction in spending by state-owned Pemex and the completion of the Olmeca refinery, according to energy market sources and state data, even as two-thirds of the country's states posted job growth. Annually, the total employment in Mexico grew by 213,993 jobs in 2024, 67pc fewer than the 651,490 jobs added in 2023, according to the Mexican social security (IMSS) institute's tally of formal jobs, which have full benefits like better access to housing credits and public medical services. The deceleration in the number of jobs created last year adds to signals of a Mexican economy that was cooling as the year progressed, according to economists and energy market sources. "In 2024, the second lowest generation of jobs in the last 15 years was recorded, only after 2020, the year in which the Covid-19 pandemic hit," according to a report from Mexican think tank Mexico Como Vamos. Tabasco state, one of the most important for the energy sector in Mexico, led the reduction in employment among the 11 states that experienced job losses during 2024. Tabasco lost 28,675 jobs over the year, for a 12pc annual decline in employment in the state, according to IMSS data. Twenty-one states, including the capital, posted job growth. Campeche, the state with the second biggest annual percentage of job losses, and Tamaulipas, the other state with a high dependence on the oil sector, also reported significant declines in 2024, with annual formal job losses of 5,952 and 3,120, representing 4pc and 1pc decreases from a year earlier, respectively. These IMSS figures only account for formal jobs registered with the institute, which provide access to medical, pensions, and housing credits, and totaled 22.24mn as of December. The official statistics agency Inegi counts employment nationwide at 59.5mn as of the third quarter last year. Inegi's count of employment includes the informal sector, made up of jobs without social security and other benefits. Inegi's estimates put the informal labor sector at over 54pc of all jobs. According to IMSS, the country lost 405,259 jobs in December compared with November, the largest loss recorded for that month since 2000. Still, December is typically marked by heavy job losses because of seasonal adjustments. But last year the final month's tally was pulled even lower than normal by overall weak hiring over the year, Inegi said, even as total job growth was positive for the full year. While the labor situation in Mexico worsened in 2024 because of the weakening of the national economy, including a sharp depreciation of the peso to the dollar, the decline has hit the states most closely tied to the oil and gas sector and Pemex spending, said Carlos Ramirez, founder of consultancy Integralia. Tabasco hangover "Tabasco benefited greatly from the investment poured into Pemex by the administration of AMLO (former president Juan Manuel Lopez Obrador), Ramirez said. "This is going to change now with the (Claudia) Sheinbaum administration, and the state will suffer a hangover as the new government reduces its support for the oil and gas industry." Still, the national unemployment rate is low, at 2.6pc in November, according to Inegi. And the country added 361,000 jobs in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to Inegi's broader base of data. But the economy was slowing in the second half of 2024. Growth in gross domestic product slowed to an annual 1.6pc in the third quarter from 2.1pc in the second quarter, according to Inegi. Inegi's IGAE, an index that tracks the real economy, showed that the Mexican economy contracted 0.73pc in October, as economists lowered growth estimates for the Mexican economy for this year. Pemex chief executive Victor Rodriguez in early October implemented a 20pc cut to the company's upstream budget, aiming to save Ps26.78bn ($1.32bn). This decision, combined with delays in payments for contracts and a halt in new service agreements, severely impacted local companies in Tabasco and Campeche, according to oil services company association Amespac. Some companies announced layoffs as Pemex's financial constraints rippled through the supply chain. Part of Tabasco's workforce reduction could also be tied to the near-completion of the 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, said Jesus Carrillo, an analyst at think tank IMCO. While the major construction phases have concluded, the facility remains in a testing phase, contrary to Pemex's previous promises of full operations in 2024. Despite the recent downturn, heavy Pemex spending during the administration of former president Lopez Obrador made Tabasco the leading state in job creation between December 2018 and December 2024, Ramirez said. But with the refinery now completed and Pemex projecting further budget cuts for 2025, analysts expect labor market challenges in oil-reliant states to persist. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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