US oil exports: WTI mixed while TMX rises
US light sweet waterborne spot crude prices were mixed over the week as Asian buying interest firms.
WTI loading 15-45 days forward at the US Gulf coast narrowed its discount to December Ice Brent by 50¢/bl to 93¢/bl. The free-on-board (fob) value weakened by 4¢/bl against the secondary coastal crude benchmark WTI Houston to a 26¢/bl midpoint premium as October-loading differentials were mostly unchanged due to a major industry event happening in Singapore this week.
Demand for WTI climbed a bit earlier in the week as Asia-Pacific refiners stepped up their purchases of October-loading WTI prior to the start of S&P's Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) conference this week in Singapore. It was unclear whether the pace of Asian buying would continue after this week.
Asian buyers typically seek WTI supplies around two weeks earlier than European customers. Prior to the spike in Asian buying of WTI, Chinese demand had been relatively weak, although delegates at the Singapore conference said this demand weakness was overstated.
Chinese oil demand growth is slowing but has not yet peaked, while growth in the use of naphtha and jet fuel is offsetting declines in motor fuel consumption, delegates heard at the Argus Asia-Pacific Oil Markets Forum on 10 September. The growth in the use of naphtha and jet fuel is offsetting declines in motor fuel consumption.
The slowdown in oil demand growth is attributed to signs of weakness in the Chinese economy and the country's push for electric vehicles. Despite the slowdown, some experts believe that the weakness in Chinese oil demand is being exaggerated, and they view China as a maturing market with lower growth like other OECD countries.
Elsewhere, tanker freight rates are expected to increase in the coming months due to a recovery in demand for dirty tankers, according to delegates at the Appec conference in Singapore. The rates for clean tanker freight fell in the third quarter due to competition from dirty tankers, but there has been a recent increase in demand for dirty tankers, hinting at a general recovery in the fourth-quarter rates.
Americas Pacific coast
Values for Canadian crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline strengthened amid volatility in the underlying futures market.
Free-on-board (fob) High-tan crude exported from Vancouver strengthened 10¢/bl to a $10.53/bl discount to January Ice Brent, while Cold Lake fob Vancouver rose 20¢/bl to a $9.55/bl discount against the benchmark.
Ice Brent crude futures prices fell below $70/bl during the week, the first time since late 2021. This decline came after low Chinese crude imports in July and the delay by OPEC+ alliance members to increase output. Despite disruptions to Libyan crude output, the prices continued to fall. OPEC's research arm remains bullish on oil demand, while some trading firm executives suggested that prices may need to fall further to stimulate demand. Analysts and traders are factoring in the softness in China, the impending Federal Reserve easing cycle in the US, and mixed messages from OPEC.
Elsewhere, sections of the 622,000 b/d Keystone crude pipeline remain at reduced pressure since a spill nearly two years ago, but its operator is making strides to have those restrictions potentially removed.
TC Energy's Keystone pipeline is a major thoroughfare for Canadian heavy crude destined for the US midcontinent and Gulf coast, but a rupture in December 2022 took the cross-border pipeline off line for more than three weeks.
Service was mostly restored in the months following the incident, but more crude could likely be moved down the line if pressure restrictions are lifted.
Canada's west coast now exports more Canadian crude than the US Gulf coast after the startup of the TMX pipeline. Lifted restrictions on the Keystone pipeline could potentially disrupt crude flows through TMX.
Planned US crude export cargoes | ||||
Tanker name | Size | Charterer | Destination | Laycan |
Asia-Pacific | ||||
Front Forth | VLCC | Phillips 66 | China | 7-14 September 2024 |
C. Earnest | VLCC | Mercuria | China | 7-14 September 2024 |
Khurais | VLCC | Unipec | China | 10-14 September 2024 |
Ilma | VLCC | SK Energy | South Korea | 15 September 2024 |
Legio X Equestris | VLCC | Aramco Trading | Singapore | 15 September 2024 |
Plata Glory | VLCC | Phillips 66 | Taiwan and/or South Korea | 19 September 2024 |
Seamajesty | Suezmax | Shell | Singapore | 19 September 2024 |
Dht Sundarabans | VLCC | ExxonMobil | Singapore | 24 September 2024 |
Yasa Scorpion | VLCC | Unpiec | China | 25-30 September 2024 |
Basrah | VLCC | Unipec | China | 30 September 2024 |
New Corolla | VLCC | Hyundai Oil Bank | South Korea | 3-5 October 2024 |
Front Alta | VLCC | Shell | South Korea | 5 October 2024 |
Cosflying Lake | VLCC | BP | Singapore | 8 October 224 |
Celeste Nova | VLCC | Chevron | South Korea | 8 October 224 |
Landbridge Glory | VLCC | Equinor | Asia-Pacific | 13 October 2024 |
Front Tana | VLCC | SK Energy | South Korea | 13 October 2024 |
Hillah | VLCC | PTT | Ningbo, China | 15 October 2024 |
Sinokor TBN | VLCC | Occidental Petroleum | Asia-Pacific | 16 October 2024 |
Europe | ||||
Andromeda | VLCC | BP | Europe | 8-14 September 2024 |
Seaways Endeavor | VLCC | ExxonMobil | Europe | 14 September 2024 |
Levantine Sea | Aframax | Chevron | Europe | 15 September 2024 |
Seatribute | Aframax | BP | Europe | 15 September 2024 |
Yuan Bei Hai | Suezmax | Equinor | Europe | 15 September 2024 |
Arctic | Suezmax | BP | Europe | 18 September, 2024 |
Aegean Horizon | Suezmax | Vitol | Europe | 18-19 September 2024 |
Morning Hope | VLCC | ExxonMobil | Europe | 21 September 2024 |
Eagle Veracruz | VLCC | ExxonMobil | Europe | 27 September 2024 |
Cobalt Nova | VLCC | BP | Europe | 13-17 October 2024 |
Americas and misc. | ||||
Front Shanghai | Suezmax | Energy Transfer | Porto Sudeste, Brazil | 13-14 September 2024 |
Green Adventure | Aframax | Chevron | East Coast Canada | 15 September 2024 |
Seaways Frio | Suezmax | Petrobras | Brazil | 21 September 2024 |
Shipping fixture reports | ||||
Select US crude cargoes in transit | ||||
Tanker name | Size | Loading window | Destination | ETA |
Asia-Pacific | ||||
Houston Voyager | VLCC | 22-24 July 2024 | Maoming, China | Alongside |
Seavoice | VLCC | 20-24 July 2024 | Ulsan, South Korea | 15 September 2024 |
Dht Panther | VLCC | 11-16 July 2024 | Kaohsiung, Taiwan | 16 September 2024 |
Arsan | VLCC | 19-25 July 2024 | Daesan, South Korea | 16 September 2024 |
Dht Osprey | VLCC | 23-27 July 2024 | Taoyuan, Taiwan | 17 September 2024 |
Xin Long Yang | VLCC | 29 July 2024 - 3 August 2024 | Paradip, India | 20 September 2024 |
Maxim | VLCC | 26-29 July 2024 | Kaohsiung, Taiwan | 22 September 2024 |
Halcyon | VLCC | 2-6 August 2024 | South Korea | 27 September 2024 |
Cap Victor | Suezmax | 5-7 August 2024 | Mumbai, India | 28 September 2024 |
Advantage Verdict | VLCC | 12-16 August 2024 | Singapore | 5 October 2024 |
Cosnew Lake | VLCC | 13-18 August 2024 | Yeosu, South Korea | 9 October 2024 |
DHT Redwood | VLCC | 15-18 August 2024 | Asia-Pacific | 10 October 2024 |
Maharah | VLCC | 15-21 August 2024 | Daesan, South Korea | 12 October 2024 |
Maran Thaleia | VLCC | 16-21 August 2024 | China | 13 October 2024 |
Vl Brilliant | VLCC | 21-26 August 2024 | Kaohsiung, Taiwan | 17 October 2024 |
Dias I | VLCC | 23-27 August 2024 | Geoje, South Korea | 17 October 2024 |
Amphitrite | VLCC | 27-31 August 2024 | Singapore | 19 October 2024 |
Great Lady | VLCC | 30 August - 3 September 2024 | Singapore | 25 October 2024 |
Dijilah | VLCC | 3-6 September 2024 | Mumbai, India | 27 October 2024 |
Europe | ||||
Ithaki DF | Aframax | 27-28 August 2024 | Fos, France | 16 September 2024 |
Seagrace | Suezmax | 29-31 August 2024 | Immingham, United Kingdom | 17 September 2024 |
Minerva Nounou | Aframax | 30-31 August 2024 | Rotterdam, The Netherlands | 17 September 2024 |
Achilleas | Suezmax | 30-31 August 2024 | Rotterdam, The Netherlands | 18 September, 2024 |
Eagle Ventura | VLCC | 28 August - 4 September | Rotterdam, The Netherlands | 20 September 2024 |
Nordic Zenith | Suezmax | 30 August - 2 September | Wilhelmshaven, Germany | 21 September 2024 |
Horten | VLCC | 31 August - 5 September 2024 | Rotterdam, The Netherlands | 22 September 2024 |
Drepanos | Aframax | 3-5 September 2024 | Immingham, United Kingdom | 23 September 2024 |
Atlantic | Suezmax | 29 August - 1 September 2024 | Trieste, Italy | 23 September 2024 |
Sola TS | Aframax | 6-8 September 2024 | A Coruña, Spain | 24 September 2024 |
Front Ull | Suezmax | 5-7 September 2024 | Wilhelmshaven, Germany | 25 September, 2024 |
Atlantic Emerald | Aframax | 7-9 September 2024 | Spain | 26 September 2024 |
Crude Zephyrus | Suezmax | 3-4 September 2024 | Ancona, Italy | 26 September 2024 |
Grimstad | Aframax | 9-11 September 2024 | Rotterdam, The Netherlands | 29 September 2024 |
Nordic Vega | Suezmax | 3-4 September 2024 | Porvoo, Finland | 29 September 2024 |
Minerva Libra | Aframax | 7-9 September 2024 | Milazzo, Italy | 30 September 2024 |
Kpler and Vortexa |
Related news posts
Libya still exporting crude despite blockade
Libya still exporting crude despite blockade
London, 13 September (Argus) — Libya is still exporting crude more than two weeks after the country's eastern-based administration imposed a blockade on oil fields and terminals. Exports have fallen drastically from pre-blockade levels but the country has still exported five crude cargoes totalling about 3mn bl since the beginning of September and is preparing to load more in the coming days, according to a shipping source and tracking data. Libya's eastern-based administration ordered the oil blockade on 26 August in response to an attempt by its rival administration in the west to replace the central bank governor. The blockade has pushed Libya's crude production from around 1mn b/d to as low as 300,000 b/d , Argus estimates. The shutdown order was meant to halt operations at Libya's eastern oil terminals — Es Sider, Ras Lanuf, Zueitina, Marsa el Brega and Marsa el Hariga — but all of Libya's exports so far this month have loaded from one of these ports. Libya typically exports 1mn b/d of crude. The average this month is about 300,000 b/d. That some oil continues to trickle through represents a change from past blockades, when eastern export terminals were completely shut and crude production fell close to zero. The more flexible nature of the latest blockade appears designed to suit the interests of the real force behind it, general Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), which controls the country's east and southwest. It is also the first nationwide blockade under the tenure of state-owned oil firm NOC's new chairman Farhat Ben Gudara, who is known to be close to Haftar. Some output has been kept online in the east to feed domestic refineries and to allow associated gas production to supply power plants. Past blockades caused severe power cuts and cut domestic supplies of diesel and gasoline, putting pressure on Haftar to lift them. Argus understands that some, if not all, of the cargoes that have left Libya this month are part of NOC's crude-for-products programme, which is key to a booming fuel smuggling industry centred in the east. A source told Argus that two cargoes due to be loaded from Marsa el Hariga this month are for eastern-based Libyan firm Arkenu Oil , which analysts suspect was set up to create a direct oil revenue stream independent of the central bank in Tripoli. "What we're seeing is not really a conventional blockade," said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya specialist at the UK's Royal United Services Institute. UN-led talks to resolve the leadership crisis at the central bank which sparked the oil blockade have so far failed to result in an agreement. Libya's oil export revenues usually flow into the central bank, making it one of the country's most powerful institutions. The impasse has degraded Libya's ability to carry out international financial transactions and risks spiralling into a wider economic crisis. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argentina's big energy hopes face reality
Argentina's big energy hopes face reality
Houston, 13 September (Argus) — Argentina has the reserves, investor interest and now most of the regulatory framework to potentially triple its oil and natural gas output by the early 2030s, but ensuring success will require much more, producers in the country said today. "Argentina has tremendous production potential," said Chevron's general manager of its Argentina upstream unit Jim Navratil, speaking at the 4th Shale in Argentina conference in Houston, Texas. But the country needs to give more assurances that contracts and investment regimes will be honored, and make it easier to move capital, he added. Chevron produces more than 100,000 b/d in Argentina. The South American country is banking mostly on its Vaca Muerta unconventional oil and gas deposit that holds an estimated 308 trillion cf in natural gas and 16bn bl of oil reserves. Output from Vaca Muerta alone could rise to more than 1mn b/d from about 390,000 b/d now by 2030, the government and outside forecasts estimate. This comes after Argentina's overall oil output hit a 20-year high in July of 682,000 b/d and 151.7mn m³/d of gas, a 21-year high. To further that increase, Argentina's government under President Javier Milei has passed massive changes to its financial and energy regulatory framework. The changes are aimed at ending the costly policy of energy sovereignty that "has hurt us" and instead making the system financially self-sustaining and open for investment, Argentina's energy minister Eduardo Rodriguez Chirillo said at the same event. Not quite there Optimism has grown, but more work is pending, producers say. "We are supporting [the government's changes] and cheering, but we are still not quite there yet", Equinor's Vaca Muerta asset manager Max Medina said. Equinor has interest in one exploration license and one producing block in Vaca Muerta, with about 59,000 b/d of production. Argentina should add more incentives for producers and those companies must place more attention on safety, emissions reductions and compliance as the basin expands, Medina said. Workforce development is also a challenge in Neuquen, the province where Vaca Muerta is centered, which has a population of about 700,000. "The challenge to get to 1mn b/d [in Vaca Muerta] is going to be much more difficult, especially on the human resources side," Medina said. Technological and cost constraints also present difficulties, said Pan American Energy's upstream managing director Fausto Caretta. The company hopes to triple its oil production in the Neuquina basin asset and in the Neuquen province in coming years, from 6,000 b/d of oil now. But restrictions in Argentina on importing needed technology have also delayed needed improvements, Caretta said, although rules are easing. This has contributed to well drilling costs in the Vaca Muerta region being about 20pc higher than in the Permian basin in Texas, to which it is often compared, and completion times remain about 30pc more. Financing multiple proposed infrastructure projects will also be key. "The challenge is how to get that oil to markets," said Julian Escuder, country manager for Pluspetrol, which produces about 21,000 b/d of oil in Argentina. "We need infrastructure." Despite the hurdles, Argentinian officials are assuring investors that changes are here to stay, unlike recent abrupt shifts in energy policy in Colombia and Mexico to focus on state-centered models. Neuquen governor Roland Figuero assured attendees that energy policy is stable in his province. "That has been the same for years," he said, adding that Vaca Muerta "is the last big opportunity that Argentinians have to do things well" in energy. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Francine shuts in about 42pc of US Gulf oil: Update 2
Francine shuts in about 42pc of US Gulf oil: Update 2
Adds spot crude pricing information, NOLA port reopening. New York, 12 September (Argus) — Hurricane Francine, which has since weakened to a tropical depression as it passes over central Mississippi, shut in about 42pc of US Gulf of Mexico oil output. About 730,472 b/d of offshore oil output was off line as of 12:30pm ET Thursday, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), while 991.68mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 53pc of the region's output, was also off line. Operators evacuated workers from 169 platforms this week ahead of the storm. Companies including Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell relocated offshore workers and suspended some drilling operations ahead of Francine, while a number of ports, including New Orleans, Louisiana, shut down. Shell curtailed output at the Appomattox platform, around 80 miles south east of Louisiana, as well as the Mars, Vito, Ursa, and Olympus platforms because of downstream issues. Today Shell said it has started to redeploy staff to its Perdido facility, located about 190 miles south of Houston, where production is still shut. Operations at Shell's Auger and Enchilada/Salsa assets, about 120 miles south of Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. remain suspended. Drilling is still halted at the Whale platform, which is scheduled to start up later this year. "As conditions continue to improve, we will begin the process of redeploying personnel to Auger and Enchilada/Salsa to bring staffing to normal operating levels," Shell said. Offshore crude spot prices rise Crude from Shell's Appomattox project moves through the offshore Proteus and Endymion pipelines to be marketed as part of the medium sour Thunder Horse stream, which has dedicated underground cavern storage in LOOP's Clovelly, Louisiana, hub. In today's spot market, prompt October Thunder Horse has been trading at a 30¢/bl premium to the US benchmark in Cushing, Oklahoma, today, 20¢/bl higher than in the prior session. Crude from Shell's Mars, Vito, Ursa and Olympus platforms also delivers to LOOP's Clovelly hub, and is sold as Mars crude from there, where the medium sour also has dedicated cavern storage. Mars crude has sold in the spot market today at 70-80¢/bl discounts to the Cushing benchmark, in line with yesterday's 75-80¢/bl discounts. Shell's Auger and Enchilada/Salsa production feeds primarily into the Bonito Sour crude stream, a light sour that is not often seen trading in the spot market. Perdido feeds into ExxonMobil's Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System (HOOPS), that delivers the HOOPS Blend to the Texas Gulf coast. HOOPS Blend is a medium sour crude that is not actively traded in the spot market. Competing Texas-delivered medium sour Southern Green Canyon (SGC) was trading at a $1.25/bl discount to Cushing this morning, within yesterday's range of discounts between $1 and $1.30/bl. SGC discounts had tightened to as narrow as 70¢/bl this week — the tightest since mid-August. Ports reopening Conditions at the port of New Orleans were set to normal at 2pm ET today after the port was closed ahead of the storm, according to the US Coast Guard. The mouth of the Mississippi River remained closed to traffic however. The port of Lake Charles reopened to vessel traffic at 11am ET Thursday after closing on Tuesday evening. Francine was about 15 miles north-northeast of Jackson, Mississippi, as of a 12pm ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. It slammed into the Louisiana coast as a Category 2 hurricane Wednesday evening before weakening. By Stephen Cunningham and Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US Gulf refiners report no serious storm damage: Update
US Gulf refiners report no serious storm damage: Update
Adds detail on Shell, Citgo, Chevron and ExxonMobil refinery operations. Houston, 12 September (Argus) — Refined products supply in Louisiana appears stable and largely unaffected by Hurricane Francine which made landfall last night as a Category 2 hurricane on the US Gulf coast. Fuel terminals and racks distributing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel in the state were largely unaffected, sources said this morning. Some terminals shut loadings during the peak of the storm late Wednesday and in the early hours of Thursday but were back online or restoring operations today. ExxonMobil's 523,000 b/d Baton Rouge refinery is operating as normal and supplying customers, a company spokesperson said today. "There appears to be no significant damage or flooding at our Baton Rouge area facilities," the spokesperson said. Oil major Shell also said today that there appears to be no serious damage at its Geismar chemicals plant, mothballed Convent refinery and 234,000 b/d Norco refinery in Louisiana. Before the storm, Shell limited personnel at the three plants as it prepared for landfall from Francine. Refineries often have "ride out" crews in place during a major weather event and a smaller number of essential operators continue to oversee the plant. Directly across the Mississippi River from Exxon, BP evacuated staff on Wednesday at a lubricants plant it operates in Port Allen. In far west Louisiana, Citgo's 455,000 b/d Lake Charles refinery faced no damage and is returning to normal operations, the company said today. To the east of Louisiana and closer to the storm's path, Chevron's 357,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi, refinery is operational and supplying customers, the company said today. While details of damages could still emerge for plants in Louisiana run by the likes of Marathon Petroleum, PBF, Valero and Delek, market participants this morning said they expect a return to normal for operations in the coming days. With peak summer demand season over , refiners cutting runs due to narrow margins and the fall turnaround season underway , market participants were less worried about refineries curtailing operations or shutting terminals headed into Hurricane Francine compared to Hurricane Beryl earlier this summer. Beryl also threatened the Texas coast, home to 6mn b/d of refining capacity — about a third of the US total — compared to Louisiana's 3mn b/d. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more